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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#11

Post by alexpetralia »

dijit wrote: post #3

The slides by themselves do not speak a compelling narrative to me, so I think I’m missing something fundamental or not understanding. Small businesses (all, businesses) will suffer quite badly, but if your company cannot continue operating because its shut/slowed down for 2 weeks then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/ shock would have killed it. Arguing that many people have done…

This is like saying, if you are in credit card debt and not prepared for a disaster, you are on your own. While this is true, this logic simply doesn't work in aggregate because the status quo is millions of people are in debt. Similarly, most small businesses operate with very little operating cash flow, and that is simply how our economy operates.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#14

Post by mirimir »

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Sure, but if what you say is accurate, it wouldn't matter. Once people started dying by the thousand, even if they're all old, governments would be forced to lock stuff down. And even if they didn't, the economy would be hosed.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#15

Post by buboard »

dijit wrote: post #3

The slides by themselves do not speak a compelling narrative to me, so I think I’m missing something fundamental or not understanding. Small businesses (all, businesses) will suffer quite badly, but if your company cannot continue operating because its shut/slowed down for 2 weeks then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/ shock would have killed it. Arguing that many people have done…

i dont think that s fair. in an efficient market, profit margins are slim for the benefit of the consumer, which means businesses are not super profitable and need to invest continuously.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#16

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

So let's cancel any sort of response, as you propose. What do the next two weeks, two months, etc. look like? I think it's the human condition to least try, but I can entertain the reality that some Americans just aren't for social distancing and of that segment, some will become superspreaders.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#18

Post by faitswulff »

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL

As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but ultimately you can't have a livelihood if you don't have a life."

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#19

Post by alexpetralia »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

Did you miss the part about small businesses?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#20

Post by [deleted] »

dijit wrote: post #3

The slides by themselves do not speak a compelling narrative to me, so I think I’m missing something fundamental or not understanding. Small businesses (all, businesses) will suffer quite badly, but if your company cannot continue operating because its shut/slowed down for 2 weeks then it’s likely that your business was running on a knifes edge and /any/ shock would have killed it. Arguing that many people have done…

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