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Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

reuters.com

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Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#121

Post by exclusiv »

SpikeDad wrote: post #98
robocat wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are seriously overreacting. He is suggesting drinking a few glasses of tonic water, saying why it is helping him, and prefixed a warning. There is nothing dangerous in his suggestion, and it is obviously not given as a complete medical solution to the epidemic to use for your family.

You didn't read it. He's giving people this advice. It's dangerous advice. I am not overreacting. This is a time for solid, real medical information and not anecdotal folklore.

It's tonic water. You are overreacting.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#122

Post by blhack »

jshevek wrote: post #119
blhack wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like such a strange nit to pick here over my use of the term miraculous. I don’t know what else you would call the results of the study I linked (supported by the reaction of many national health orgs). Yeah, maybe this isn’t the cure to this disease, and of course we need more testing, but the result as reported are incredibly hopeful. It seems to have hit a nerve with some people that I used the term “mira…

You were wrong when you presented alleged evidence/argument that experts must necessarily disagree with the MD/statistician, above.

If doctors are using this, and not seeing an effect, why do they continue using it? Doctors are humans, and prone to irrationality of course, but they're also scientists.

Maybe my faith in the collective ability of the world medical professionals to evaluate their treatment techniques is misplaced, but I still have faith that these people are acting in accordance with their scientific training.

Maybe that's wrong, and I shouldn't be trusting these people. But if I'm not trusting doctors (and especially infectious disease experts who are writing papers about their findings), then who should I trust?

I think a lot of this distrust in institutions and doctors is going to get us into a lot of trouble. I wish people would start listening to these orgs.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#123

Post by pombrand »

LinuxBender wrote: post #2

An alternate zinc ionophore with less side effects is Quercetin [1] [2] which some people here already take for other reasons, myself included. It is most beneficial if being taken prior to infection to slow the RNA transcoding process by getting more zinc into the cells, assuming one is not deficient in zinc to begin with. I mention this because by the time someone is talking to a doctor, the virus has likely alread…

Quercetin has an EC50 value of 84 uM in vitro against SARS-CoV, Chloroquine around 6 uM vs SARS-CoV-2 and it's a lot better absorbed - so to get any antiviral effect from quercetin you'd probably need at least 10 grams pr day.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#124

Post by pombrand »

prostheticvamp wrote: post #33
cycrutchfield wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They're miraculous. Where are you seeing that? Because what I see is a very non-rigorous, non-randomized study. Also, what about this part: >A total of 26 patients received hydroxychloroquine and 16 were control patients. Six hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were lost in follow-up during the survey because of early cessation of treatment. Reasons are as follows: three patients were transferred to intensive care u…

Medical doctor and statistician weighing in just to say: I agree fully with what you wrote. No miracles observed.

If the control group still is positive for corona after 7 days in 90% of cases and we anticipate the intervention to get that number to 50%, with an alpha of 0.05 and a size of 24 in the intervention group, the study has a power of 0.957 and answers the question whether chloroquine stops viral shedding by day 7. This isn't cardiology where we need 50000 patients to find the significance.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#125

Post by pombrand »

tanilama wrote: post #31
blhack wrote: post #24

To those who aren't aware of it, there was a recently completed (small) clinical study of hydroxychloroquine (and in some cases HCQ plus z-pack) just completed in France. The results are here: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/20... They're miraculous. This is a well-studied, mass-produced drug which has been around for 70 years and appears to be highly effective at treating this virus.

Worth mentioning that, with China/Korea, now France deploys this drug to frontlines, in the best case scenario, which is the South Korea case, the death rate still sets at 1%, so still 10 times more lethal than flu. We all want a miracle, but we need to be cautious about it. I am more curious right now as whether this drug can work as a preventative medication for high risk individual to lower the chance for getting…

South Korea is at 0.6% CFR, the true IFR will be lower than this again due to false negatives and biased testing against symptomatic people.

South Korea will max end up with a IFR of 0.2-0.5%, 2 to 5 times worse than the flu.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#126

Post by rurban »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #85
paulmd wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, "messy" data when performing initial experimental administration of a drug, during an outbreak with no officially approved treatment, with limited testing capacity.which is piling up bodies faster than mortuaries can cremate them. How shameful. People are nitpicking. Yes, "we need further studies", that's at the end of literally every research paper ever, but the longer you delay the more people die. It's no dif…

It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. You have to make sure that your proposed therapy works, else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. What is concerning that the Chinese didn't notice a great effect, else they would have told the rest of the world.

On the contrary the Chinese told the world very early how their successful treatment plan worked.

* https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/standards-of-care-for-s...

* Or https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fd15kg/preprin...

South Korea and Japan used the very same plan in their ICU's.

Maybe it's the crackdown of Western media on China, but right now italian doctors trust chinese experience more than western experts. Western experts still preach lockdown, whilst Italian officials in the meantime also found out that the asian recommendation of mass testing everybody is better. Without drastic lockdowns. Test everybody, wear masks, be responsible.

> else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short.

The problem is that it was chinese and south korean data only. Trials are not cut short, western buerocracy still rule the hospitals. Many doctors do get their younger patients on those trials. But in the overloaded case, such as Italy and Spain it's too late. You need to apply virostatica early on for 10 days, not when it's too late. But those people are advised to stay at home and wait for the fever to go down. Without effective treatment plan, as outlined by the chinese.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#127

Post by paulmd »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #85
paulmd wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, "messy" data when performing initial experimental administration of a drug, during an outbreak with no officially approved treatment, with limited testing capacity.which is piling up bodies faster than mortuaries can cremate them. How shameful. People are nitpicking. Yes, "we need further studies", that's at the end of literally every research paper ever, but the longer you delay the more people die. It's no dif…

It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. You have to make sure that your proposed therapy works, else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. What is concerning that the Chinese didn't notice a great effect, else they would have told the rest of the world.

> It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials.

No, it's that you couldn't guarantee that every patient could be tested every day in order to measure whether the drug is effective. That is what people are complaining about, and it won't be fixed until testing capacity is reliably there.

Bigger trials would only make that worse.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#128

Post by jshevek »

blhack wrote: post #122
jshevek wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were wrong when you presented alleged evidence/argument that experts must necessarily disagree with the MD/statistician, above.

If doctors are using this, and not seeing an effect, why do they continue using it? Doctors are humans, and prone to irrationality of course, but they're also scientists. Maybe my faith in the collective ability of the world medical professionals to evaluate their treatment techniques is misplaced, but I still have faith that these people are acting in accordance with their scientific training. Maybe that's wrong, an…

Your post does not address my point. That's okay, if you simply wanted to say the things you said. There are things you've said that I agree with, and things which I strongly disagree with. In a conversation, I like to be careful about going down too many side tangents if certain fundamentals are not already mutually understood.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#129

Post by blhack »

jshevek wrote: post #128
blhack wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If doctors are using this, and not seeing an effect, why do they continue using it? Doctors are humans, and prone to irrationality of course, but they're also scientists. Maybe my faith in the collective ability of the world medical professionals to evaluate their treatment techniques is misplaced, but I still have faith that these people are acting in accordance with their scientific training. Maybe that's wrong, an…

Your post does not address my point. That's okay, if you simply wanted to say the things you said. There are things you've said that I agree with, and things which I strongly disagree with. In a conversation, I like to be careful about going down too many side tangents if certain fundamentals are not already mutually understood.

It seems like you disagree with my implication that use of something (in this case, chloroquine to treat covid-19, the use of which seems to be increasing daily) implies its efficacy.

Why? I'm modeling the doctors and health officials who are making these decisions as agents which are presumably continuously evaluating their decisions. So basically:

A lot of experts are taking this action -> assume the action has a desirable outcome -> believe what the experts are saying (in this case both their words and their actions seem to agree with each other, and point to the idea that chloroquine is an effective treatment of covid-19).

I am genuinely at a loss as to why this stance (my stance) is anything other than completely obvious.

Re: Bayer donates 3M chloroquine phosphate tablets for potential Covid-19 treatment

#130

Post by jshevek »

blhack wrote: post #129
jshevek wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your post does not address my point. That's okay, if you simply wanted to say the things you said. There are things you've said that I agree with, and things which I strongly disagree with. In a conversation, I like to be careful about going down too many side tangents if certain fundamentals are not already mutually understood.

It seems like you disagree with my implication that use of something (in this case, chloroquine to treat covid-19, the use of which seems to be increasing daily) implies its efficacy. Why? I'm modeling the doctors and health officials who are making these decisions as agents which are presumably continuously evaluating their decisions. So basically: A lot of experts are taking this action -> assume the action has a d…

No. Here, as in several places, you make unwarranted assumptions about other's thought processes. Remember that "efficacy" is a matter of degree. I try not to spend too much time and effort on strawmen.
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