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New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#241

Post by dyingkneepad »

fiftyfifty wrote: post #160
fiftyfifty wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem we are going to have in the US is some states are responding better than others. NY looks bad right now because they are testing a lot. States like Florida, Louisiana and Georgia are already in double digit deaths each and don't have the positive cases to account for them. Going forward the rate of deaths will be far more indicative of what's happening than just the positive cases and that is going to con…

Italy and Spain each had a record number of deaths today at 627 and 212 respectively. The next two weeks are going to be terrible in the US.

We get shocked when an airplane with 150-300 people falls: we spend months talking about it. Now we see multiple instances of these numbers daily: two airplanes in Italy, one in Spain, a small one in the US, but it still doesn't feel as terrifying as a real airplane crash to me.

I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know.

OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#242

Post by darawk »

gdulli wrote: post #240
ransom1538 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry what? His state has the highest infection rate and he just NOW did a 100% workforce reduction. He hasn't even issued "a shelter in place" order. BARS WERE OPEN MONDAY. Thousands of deaths will be on his hands. I think he should be criminally prosecuted. NY needs to be locked down NOW .

I think there's a social engineering aspect of this where it's believed by governments that drastic measures wouldn't be accepted by the public overnight. They think something like a shelter could only go smoothly after a period of ramping up to it with a period of persistent messaging and getting people used to less drastic measures first. Think of how many (more) people would be ignoring this and writing it off as…

I agree that western governments seem to believe this, but I don't believe it's true. All you have to do is start enforcing the order, and people will start to get the message.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#243

Post by therealdrag0 »

jakear wrote: post #32

So that’s CA and NY both with shelter in place. Strange that WA hasn’t implemented it yet.

WA has high testing capacity compared to rest of country and has a very low "new-cases" grade (almost flat). So until it gets worse, they're probably in an "okay" position.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#244

Post by schoen »

mokus wrote: post #229
sodafountan wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, as alarming as it sounds I think we'd need something much higher than a 2% fatality rate to justify completely giving up our civil liberties. If anything it should be the elderly and vulnerable that are forced to isolate while the rest of society slows down for awhile, but even that I think is too egregious at this point.

Lincoln used marshal law during the civil war and even that was deemed unconstitutional in some areas. As long as there are functioning civil courts, marshal law is not considered justified, as I understand it.

It's "martial" (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/martial#English) rather than "marshal" (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/marshal#English). The two are homophones, but the first means 'military' and the second is a particular rank or role within an army or government.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#245

Post by zone411 »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #129

There is no doubt Cuomo should be the national point person for the response to the crisis based on his performance so far. He is independently working with regional manufacturing to retool to make critical medical PPE and ventilators, and has organized a regional coalition including CT, NJ, and PA. I have not agreed with him all the time, but his crisis management has been exemplary and he will have saved many lives…

This should've been done much sooner, certainly before St. Patrick's Day. He rejected an earlier proposal by De Blasio. It was obvious that this was coming and also clear that NYC would've been hit very hard. No state government has done well.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#246

Post by fennecfoxen »

fennecfoxen wrote: post #239
carlosdp wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think authoritarian tactics like that, while effective, would fly in the US. I for one would not be ok with that. Once the government takes that authority once, who knows what they end up doing with it when they see they can get away with it.

> I don't think authoritarian tactics like that, while effective, would fly in the US. Much of this hinges on how it's done. First, you can't take away rights unless there's a compelling governmental interest. This interest clearly exists; however, it still doesn't fly UNLESS you restrict rights by the least restrictive means possible. By trying voluntary restrictions first, they can demonstrate that these lesser res…

Postscript: For more on this, see https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/10/21171464/co...

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#247

Post by marknutter »

cameldrv wrote: post #201
zepearl wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - but it isn't completely clear yet. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... : A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit : ...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there…

The progression to death is something like: (very rough, from memory) Day 0: Infection Day 5: First Symptoms Day 11: Hospital admission/shortness of breath/oxygen Day 14: Ventilator Day 21: Death If there's no ventilator on day 14, the process is tragically accelerated.

I wonder what percentage of people have been saved by ventilators vs. merely had their death delayed.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#248

Post by oat_bravo_nap »

quartzite wrote: post #84

It will be impossible for us to permanently stop the spread with half measures. As viral spread continues due to half hearted social distancing, when will we be able to return to normalcy? Given the characteristics of this virus even a few cases floating around seem to be enough to reignite contagion. So we persist in stasis for a month or a year with no end in sight while the economy begins to collapse, which will a…

South Korea stopped the infection without "full measures."

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#249

Post by teruakohatu »

zone411 wrote: post #245
throwaway5752 wrote: post #129

There is no doubt Cuomo should be the national point person for the response to the crisis based on his performance so far. He is independently working with regional manufacturing to retool to make critical medical PPE and ventilators, and has organized a regional coalition including CT, NJ, and PA. I have not agreed with him all the time, but his crisis management has been exemplary and he will have saved many lives…

This should've been done much sooner, certainly before St. Patrick's Day. He rejected an earlier proposal by De Blasio. It was obvious that this was coming and also clear that NYC would've been hit very hard. No state government has done well.

Couldn't De Blasio have done the same for NYC? (an actual question, I assumed he would have the power). Because pushing the hard decision up the chain seems like a win win for De Blasio, can't be blamed either way.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#250

Post by therealdrag0 »

yibg wrote: post #131

Seems so piecemeal. We have models that work in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Is there any reason why the US and Europe can’t follow their model?

A lot of it might just be preparation. Not only "run-books" and hardware, but also wetware. I don't know for sure, but I'd guess those places have a lot more humans per case investigating-network-affects/supporting quarantine. US seems to just be working on getting hardware ramped up. I haven't heard anything about tracing case histories to quarantine contacts.

My impression is that like Taiwan didn't even shut down schools. They just locked down boarders and aggressively quarantined the infected.

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