Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

Post by rumanator » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:31 PM UTC

dakrisht wrote: post #14

kayoone wrote: post #7

Doesn't the median age of 60 years for positively diagnosed patients suggest a huge number of non-detected cases?

Probably tens of thousands of undiagnosed, asymptomatic. Aka super carriers. The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. Eventually, the more infected, the more that will die. The young are just carrier pigeons and don’t even know it.

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:33 PM UTC

xenonite wrote: post #22

gvjddbnvdrbv wrote: post #16

This is encouraging for healthy youngsters BUT age and health are also the criteria for receiving treatment in Italy at the moment. As the epidemic grows the categories of people that get ventilation decrease and the deaths will get younger and healthier.

Even if a youngster as a higher change of survival, there are serious effects reported. Fibrosis (damage of the lung tissue) lasts for much longer (over 4 weeks) than it is known in any typical flu. And what happens after 4 weeks is still totally unclear. As we don't know yet of the long term effects, please don't take that lightly!

Post by rumanator » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:34 PM UTC

ram1981 wrote: post #35

laGrenouille wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. I think you are giving a bit too much agency to the virus. It has evolved in such a way that optimises for further spreading for sure, but I do not think it has a sneaky strategy to use young people as attack vectors. What's more likely is that it…

Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. They don’t gain if they end up killing the host because that ends them too. Not to sound apocalyptic but I think their holy grail is something like what the machines do to humans in the movie Matrix

Post by _xerxes_ » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:43 PM UTC

ram1981 wrote: post #35

laGrenouille wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. I think you are giving a bit too much agency to the virus. It has evolved in such a way that optimises for further spreading for sure, but I do not think it has a sneaky strategy to use young people as attack vectors. What's more likely is that it…

Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. They don’t gain if they end up killing the host because that ends them too. Not to sound apocalyptic but I think their holy grail is something like what the machines do to humans in the movie Matrix

Post by CubsFan1060 » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:44 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #44

dakrisht wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. One issue we’re having globally is that we simply cannot get an accurate fatality rate. We’re only seeing the sickest, most critical patients and the most overwhelmed hospital systems in cities. I think MOST patients being tested in hotspots like Lombardy are those who are already at the hospital, and if you’re at the hospital you’re not in good shape. Probably tons of positive cases at home with a fever, or m…

We have enough data from closed experiments (Diamond Princess) to say that COVID sends 5% or more to the ICU. That’s the number that matters right now, not CFR. Fatality rate itself is much more dependent on whether the ICU beds are full (Italy, Iran) than anything else. Unfortunately, beds are about to be full in several US cities.