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Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

sloanreview.mit.edu

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Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#231
Redundancy and diversification is always a good idea in general, but I find the recent clamor for supply chain diversification due to COVID-19 bit of a knee-jerk reaction, especially considering the virus is now global. Where to diversify to is not an easy question to answer, compare to say a few weeks ago, when the virus was mostly just infecting China.

Most supply chain analysis focus on cost/location/scale (this one too), but ignore the manufacturing and engineering skills that are accumulated from experience, which are much harder to replace. Countries level up to make themselves more valuable. And the cost v quality tradeoff is really hard to figure out.

Apple's failing foray into India's supply chain a few years ago is a case in point [0]. I've written about this too in an India and China comparative context when it comes to Apple [1]. Tim Cook said recently on TV that he's not leaving China anytime soon [2].

Not everyone is Apple. How do you think about the tradeoff depends on your business model. But rushing to "rethink" something as complex as global supply chain, because of an unrelated, intervening event, however severe, seems imprudent to me.

[0] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-apples-search...

[1] https://interconnected.blog/leaving-china-supply-chain-a-pip...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsDU-QsfkX4&feature=emb_logo

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#232

I feel like the problem is less that supply chains are globalized, and more that they aren't redundant. By that I mean, there's too much reliance on China as the primary producer/exporter for countless industries and products. Having just one nation account for such a large share of manufacturing introduces single points of failure. It would be wise to have multiple sources for any given good, especially if it's esse…

Redundancy requires spare capacity. Economic efficiency requires running at close to full capacity.

What we're seeing is conflicting priorities.

After things normalize, we'll probably go back to just-in-time, full capacity production.

But there is a real and separate issue to debate w.r.t. globalization, and it has to do with international politics, and how safe it is to put one's well-being in the hands of a rival. Redundancy and efficiency have nothing to do with this argument.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#233
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Never heard of them. We had an argument in a CS class once about what the most "pervasive technology" in the room was. We were examining claims that "computing would become so pervasive and ubiquitous that it would become invisible" like electricity and that zipper. The reason it won was because we could count more of them than any other piece of tech in the room. Every person had more than they thought -- often as…

The thing about zippers is, YKK is hands down the best and most reliable zipper. Yes I know there are types of zippers, metal coil, molded plastic etc- YKK makes the best of each. Plenty of companies try to source their own (Levi's is the first to come to mind), but the best companies all use YKK zippers because they know. If it doesn't say YKK on it, it's not a YKK zipper.

YKK also has a lot of imitators. I recently saw an "HKK" zipper on a cheap piece of clothing from Amazon, for example.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#234
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The price advantages of globalised supply chains vs. the relative rarity of an event like this means that, during normal periods, firms using them will enjoy a significant advantage over those doing the "right" thing and market forces will weed out the latter. So I don't expect management to be taking a lead on this. That's correct. It's a market failure that needs to be remedied through law and regulation. Hyper-s…

> law and regulation In industries where innovation matters, how do you regulate for producing a good enough product? Could you regulate Intel to fix their 10nm process? Do you want a laptop with the reliability of a Fiat, or the reliability of a Toyota? Not saying it is impossible, but countries quickly run inito problems when their home produced goods are strictly inferior to the imported goods on price or quality…

A hyper-specialist will be the best at some thing or another, and bad at a lot. A generalist will likely not be as good at those things, but it can be good enough at them, and not nearly as bad at the other things.

The market, as you note, selects for hyper-specialists, but crises aren't kind to them.

Strictly inferior home-produced goods are better than no goods at all, and the capability to produce them may have systemic benefits (in flexibility, resilience, avoiding certain kinds of path dependence and local maxima) that are not visible when looking at the goods in isolation.

What law and regulation can do is keep a nation on a more generalist footing, and keep it from hyper-specializing too much.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#235
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years, I have run into: - Counterfeit components, like memory out of spec that creates scaled failures. - Fake products from the channel. - Fundamental mistruths with regard to how services are delivered. - Poor operational practices for maintaining SLA, especially for off-shored services. Those ops folks will move mountains to meet the minimum standard of "up", but will allow problems to fester. - Fraud. Fa…

I read when having bicycle frames made in Taiwan you get the best price/quality ratio if you have a permanent onsite observer in the factory. That guy doesn't really do anything but they wont cut corners if he is around.

You get what you pay for. If you aren't paying for the guy to be the observer there's no one to observe.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#236
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The incentive has already been created by Covid-19 exposing the vulnerabilities and need for decentralization. Diversification will emerge such that the next time there is a shock companies that diversified will survive, while others fail. Some industries will not learn because they will be bailed out, others like consumer electronics have probably already learned their lessons.

How will diversified companies survive till before the shock, given consumer preference for lower prices.

Less competition. Twenty years even if a company manufactured something in China the sales channel for a product was dependent on the company giving the company ability to control/level the price.

Today the supplier can not only sell to the company but to the consumers directly significantly cutting company's ability to level the price so the company is forced to drop the more expensive suppliers

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Chaos Monkey, but with import/export bans and/or tariffs?

Yea I was thinking that there is some sort of parallel to datacenters, where it's lowest latency to route everyone to their closest DC but in practice people usually route a certain percentage of traffic to standby datacenters which are farther away to make sure they're still working. You lose some efficiency but gain in resilience. Nowadays big internet companies have all sorts of Disaster Recovery plans.

> where it's lowest latency to route everyone to their closest DC but in practice people usually route a certain percentage of traffic to standby datacenters which are farther away to make sure they're still working.

Are you keeping your own data center in addition to the AWS/GCP/Azure? Because that's the exact same premise.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a third option. Apply the same regulations to the manufacture of all products sold in your country. You want to manufacture in China and sell in the US, that's fine -- but you have to do it in accordance with US environmental rules. That does two things. One, no more cost advantage to global manufacturing in whatever place has the least respect for the environment, which lets others compete better and remove…

This is already partially done with Automobiles, for example. Comply with local pollution and safety standards or a lucrative market is closed to your exports.

I think you mean that for example, the US pollution standard needs to be fulfilled by Volkswagen if they like to export VW cars to the USA.

However the OP meant more than that: that the VW workers, employed for example in Mexico, who assemble cars for US export would get the same worker rights as they would get in the USA.

And the same would hold for pollution at the factory and so on.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming is not a good comparison to manufacturing when it comes to overproduction. Food can be eaten or processed/preserved to be eaten later. Some foods have elastic demand but in general food doesn't since we all need to eat. With a lot of manufactured items demand is far more elastic and any given manufactured item isn't necessarily a substitute for any other. If Intel or AMD overproduces higher power desktop CPUs…

I never said supply chains should be slower or less dynamic, I said they should be less centralized and thus more robust, and arguably critical goods manufacturing absolutely also need a domestic presence. This is completely obvious when you see how Hurricane Maria led to drug shortages because Puerto Rico was the sole produce of some critical drugs, or how China recently had to halt outgoing shipments and everyone e…

> I never said supply chains should be slower or less dynamic, I said they should be less centralized and thus more robust, and arguably critical goods manufacturing absolutely also need a domestic presence.

If manufacturing supply chains are more geographically dispersed they are automatically slower and less dynamic. They're not necessarily more robust either. As soon as the supply chain involves moving materials farther than a few hour drive by truck it becomes constrained by modes of transport that can't be easily dispersed (rail, air, water) or reprioritized.

> Right, it's building factories in the right places, and ensuring they can tolerate disruptions.

As demonstrated by...all of history since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the right location for a factory today is not necessarily the right location for tomorrow. Relocating factories is expensive and difficult in the best circumstances. Every factory has a logistics train attached to it; not just equipment and trained workers but power requirements, waste disposal, physical siting requirements, and dozens of other factors. Some are easy to uproot and others are not.

Again, I'm not arguing that China should just make everything and all factories should be located next to one another. I am saying that manufacturing is not like AWS. You can't just spin up new instances when you run out of capacity. You can't just move everything to a new factory closer to some resource or retool a factory for a totally different type of production with a deploy script.

> Corporations should have more responsibilities to quantify and manage risks like this.

Some do and several industries are regulated when it comes to sourcing. Defense contractors have all sorts of supply chain requirements. More industries can have supply chain security requirements but then end products will get more expensive. The added cost will get pushed to consumers. So you can optimize for the common case where pandemics are rare but manufacturing tends towards consolidation and low cost or you can optimize for robustness and everything manufactured carries with it the amortized cost of that more robust but expensive supply chain. Unless regulation forces all manufactured items to have a similarly robust supply chain and all manufacturers have the same burden, there's a competitive advantage to having a supply chain more susceptible to rare disruption but far less expensive.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#240
post #40

Counterpoint: YKK (look at your zipper) relies on absolutely no one else for its supply chain [0]. This could easily be seen as a waste by those who would say YKK should just source its metal from the foundry down the street. It's easy to do a quick thought experiment in your head to think about how feasible it might be for every company to vertically integrate the way YKK has. On the other hand, YKK can't get jerked…

Fascinating link, I had no idea YKK was like that. Vertical integration stories like this, or Ford's Rouge plant[1], make me reconsider my general predisposition towards "buy" in the software space. For many years, I've argued against building software you can easily buy or download, but maybe reinventing the wheel is not so terrible if someone wants a company to be long-lived. Primary benefit is the software can be…

> Vertical integration stories like this, or Ford's Rouge plant[1], make me reconsider my general predisposition towards "buy" in the software space.

Schwinn was another great example of this back in it's heyday. The Chicago factory could essentially produce every part of a bicycle from 1010 steel.

The issue with this model for a lot of companies is that a high level of vertical integration can make it very difficult to pivot. In the case of Schwinn, the change in consumer taste towards lighter bicycles/frames was not something they could adjust to in a cost effective manner; the lighter alloys other companies were beginning to use at the time were not usable in their production process. There were many other factors in their downturn but that was a big one.

> For many years, I've argued against building software you can easily buy or download, but maybe reinventing the wheel is not so terrible if someone wants a company to be long-lived. Primary benefit is the software can be customized for the company's specific needs and not held back by other companies' software, of course. But even if using open source, it can help avoid fad software trends, or the whiplash-speed changing of standard tools/libraries (e.g. the open-source client-side Javascript world).

There's two sides to the 'buy/build' camp that seem oft ignored; The first is that 'build' is a huge cost unknown (i.e. risk) to the business. Maybe you'll build the right solution. Or, maybe it becomes a terrifying project that was put together so haphazardly that they wind up taking the developer's machine and put it in the server room, because they've run out of time and the code doesn't work anywhere else.

But the second... is that a lot of the off-the-shelf software has a specific use case. And the more off-the-beaten-path your business is, the higher the likelihood that you'll have to write customizations to actually meet the requirements. Those have their own set of risks, and I've seen projects where teams have wound up tossing the 'tool purchased by the business' and writing their own thing because it wound up being cheaper to do that than integrate with the muddled mess the company signed a fools bargain contract for (incomplete, poorly documented AGPL clone of a very popular Apache licensed product.)

It's like everything else though; companies want to 'externalize' the cost/risk. And sometimes that works. Sometimes, you have a good contract, with the right carrot+stick SLAs with a vendor, and having that peace of mind that they -will- respond within 24 hours and not use up your own internal developers troubleshooting the in house leetcode.

One of my favorite examples of this paradigm in practice is Job scheduling and/or queueing. Every company I've worked at has had their own 'opinionated' way of doing job. At one, where the requirements were very well defined, the in house library was hilariously bare code and ran on windows scheduled tasks, directories-as-output and at-first-glance terrifying oracle sprocs. But... when you looked at the actual requirements? it did exactly what it had to and no more. The output had to go to FTP, so who cared if it used directories for output as the default? And quite frankly it worked and was simple enough any developer worth their salt could maintain the structure/paradigm.

At another org, that loved to buy/use things off the shelf, I lost many a Sunday to bizarre problems where the combination of Quartz.NET wrappers, MassTransit wrappers, RabbitMQ wrappers.... secondary database queue tables.... just didn't play nice together and would deadlock on the server.

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