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Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#61

Post by _ea1k »

zw123456 wrote: post #2

Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…

Yeah, when I ask that question I get responses "how many people do you want to kill, because of course health comes first!" I haven't seen much of what I consider to be reasonable analysis.

I suspect this will be analyzed for years to come.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#62

Post by _ea1k »

spookthesunset wrote: post #47
hatenberg wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This talk at the start of an exponential curve is exactly the problem

I wonder how many people are fitting the “how many people are tested” to the same exponential curve? If there is exponential growth in the number of tests given, it follows there would be an exponential growth in number of cases detected.

That is absolutely true, which is one of the reasons that it is surprising that the curve isn't any higher than it is.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#63

Post by _ea1k »

mokarma wrote: post #34
naner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not so much the health risk but the overwhelming of healthcare systems and lack of supplies. This isn't a theory, we already know the outcome of not slowing down infection rates fast enough (China, Italy, etc).

So why aren't we scrambling to build more hospitals?

And why aren't we scrambling to get our factories making masks and other basic supplies?

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#64

Post by thda »

sershe wrote: post #58
thda wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm afraid that on the long term, the social unrest and the economic consequences will far outweigh the damage done by the virus. I'm french. I have italian friends. I don't care about the economy. It will be back up. As long as there are humans they will need goods. > there will be no more projects even for IT people. Sure. But let's put it in balance for France: - less work for IT people - 350K deaths I vote for…

"I don't care about economy" I didn't know I'd ever say this, hate these words, but this is privilege talking. Look at life expectancy chart for Russia in the 90ies. This was mere economic mismanagement, and it's far worse than the worst case virus scenario. In some countries, unemployment and economic mismanagement leads to civil wars, revolutions and dictatorships. Sure, techies in democratic/democratic-socialist f…

Of course the spanish flu. The most deadly event in recorder history. Killed more than the two great wars.

Life is the most important thing.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#65

Post by giardini »

Ancalagon wrote: post #6

This article fails to make a single mention of Italy's case-load and its effect on Italy's healthcare system.

FWIW Italy has a very active anti-vax movement:

https://bppj.berkeley.edu/2018/10/25/the-anti-vaccination-mo...

Effect on Italian measles outbreak:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/italy-vaccines-anti-vaxxer-po...

Anti-vaxxers are unlikely to get annual flu shots and are, as a consequence, subject to both the annual flu strains and to covid-19.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#66

Post by cvlasdkv »

nostromo wrote: post #14
reilly3000 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the economic damage will be so remarkable that nobody will go hungry. We are seeing unprecedented pro-social behavior and legislation. Social safety nets are born out of crises.

I see panic hoarding and empty grocery stores and laid off people worried about rent. And it’s been two weeks.

Forcing the government to act as our economic and political structure reveals itself inadequate in the face of a national crisis _is_ what will spur legislation. Hopefully smart forward-thinking legislation.

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#67

Post by sershe »

thda wrote: post #64
sershe wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I don't care about economy" I didn't know I'd ever say this, hate these words, but this is privilege talking. Look at life expectancy chart for Russia in the 90ies. This was mere economic mismanagement, and it's far worse than the worst case virus scenario. In some countries, unemployment and economic mismanagement leads to civil wars, revolutions and dictatorships. Sure, techies in democratic/democratic-socialist f…

Of course the spanish flu. The most deadly event in recorder history. Killed more than the two great wars. Life is the most important thing.

"The most deadly event in recorder history" apparently you are not very familiar with recorded history. Incidentally, Great Depression allowed a certain populist guy to come to power in a European country and to unleash an event that was several times more deadly. I guess he didn't do enough damage to your country in particular, eh?

Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

#68

Post by thda »

sershe wrote: post #67
thda wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course the spanish flu. The most deadly event in recorder history. Killed more than the two great wars. Life is the most important thing.

"The most deadly event in recorder history" apparently you are not very familiar with recorded history. Incidentally, Great Depression allowed a certain populist guy to come to power in a European country and to unleash an event that was several times more deadly. I guess he didn't do enough damage to your country in particular, eh?

I has ravaged my country. However the bad situation of germany at that is to be blamed on the French for being too soft on this country after first world war. They should have been kept under control.

Also, the spanish flu has killed between 50M - 100M according to the most recent estimations.

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