Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#191

Post by bronipstid » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:33 PM UTC

_lqaf wrote: post #176

bronipstid wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. The McDonald's thing is sort of like saying that no two Soviet Socialist Republics have ever gone to war. It just means they aren't really sovereign independent countries acting on their own behalf.

The saying was at least trying to claim something different. The claim was, more or less, that democracy/capitalism (people making this claim didn't distinguish them, mostly) brings peace through freedom and prosperity. It was more a claim about Western European countries, which, propaganda aside, were not puppet-states of the US. Cold-war era US puppet-states were different, and at the time mostly didn't tend to hav…

Yes, and that claim is wrong. Germany has had 50,000 US troops stationed in it for 75 years and the most rebellious thing they've done is politely ask for their gold back (US said no). No need to subvert a country you already have firm control over.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#192

Post by clairity » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:34 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #186

clairity wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's also where i've landed on the tariffs issue. theoretically a bad idea, but has practical uses beyond purely economic considerations. good tariff policy is hard to achieve in divisive political environments however. for instance, in many cases, you'd want them to go away dynamically as conditions improve, but lawmakers hate giving away their levers of power.

I am convinced a low tariff of ~3% on all goods and services to every country is a good idea. But that’s never what happens, you get a huge mix of zero to insanity based on which industries have political power. As such a blanket ban on tariffs became a rallying cry. Food is often used as the counter example, but IMO domestic production is less valuable than a multi year stockpile.

why 3%? to overcome inflation? and why on everything instead of grossly disadvantaged industries? i haven't spent much time thinking about such details, so curious about the rationale.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#193

Post by bronipstid » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:35 PM UTC

stormdennis wrote: post #170

bronipstid wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. The McDonald's thing is sort of like saying that no two Soviet Socialist Republics have ever gone to war. It just means they aren't really sovereign independent countries acting on their own behalf.

Armenia and Azerbaijan had a war. Probably since the end of the USSR though.

Exactly. Once the occupying force was removed from those countries the underlying ethnic conflict resumed openly. Similar things will happen elsewhere as US military power wanes.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#194

Post by wolco » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:35 PM UTC

vibrolax wrote: post #143

TeMPOraL wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupidity that caused supply chain fragility. People involved understand the benefits of redundancy. It's the market that doesn't . It's fundamentally unable to protect itself against black swan events, because they're (by definition) outside of its optimization horizon. Redundancies and buffers that could protect us from once-in-couple-decades events are considered as "fat", and are cut off by competitive p…

The value of robust and redundant supply chains only becomes manifest when serious disruption actually occurs. In vast swaths of both the consumer and industrial economy, the supply chain bean counters have tolerated no argument for choosing anyone besides the low cost supplier. Cost optimizations were the only rewarded metrics.

Sure they can. If every 10/20 years we have an event like this source prices could be 5% higher.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#195

Post by lsllc » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:36 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #136

My dad was in agriculture. When I was a know-it-all college student I would complain about farm subsidies and how they're inefficient and unfair to tax payers, etc. But he would mention that America should never have a food shortage because of them. We've never outsourced our food to China or OPEC. And now I'm really seeing the wisdom in that. For essential goods, like food, medicine, maybe energy, it makes sense to…

You know, that's a really good thought!

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#196

Post by sigstoat » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:40 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #186

clairity wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's also where i've landed on the tariffs issue. theoretically a bad idea, but has practical uses beyond purely economic considerations. good tariff policy is hard to achieve in divisive political environments however. for instance, in many cases, you'd want them to go away dynamically as conditions improve, but lawmakers hate giving away their levers of power.

I am convinced a low tariff of ~3% on all goods and services to every country is a good idea. But that’s never what happens, you get a huge mix of zero to insanity based on which industries have political power. As such a blanket ban on tariffs became a rallying cry. Food is often used as the counter example, but IMO domestic production is less valuable than a multi year stockpile.

> domestic production is less valuable than a multi year stockpile

nobody is going to stockpile food or consumer goods when you're demonized for charging more for them when the demand goes up. there's no way to do anything but lose money on it.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#197

Post by whatshisface » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:47 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #192

Retric wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am convinced a low tariff of ~3% on all goods and services to every country is a good idea. But that’s never what happens, you get a huge mix of zero to insanity based on which industries have political power. As such a blanket ban on tariffs became a rallying cry. Food is often used as the counter example, but IMO domestic production is less valuable than a multi year stockpile.

why 3%? to overcome inflation? and why on everything instead of grossly disadvantaged industries? i haven't spent much time thinking about such details, so curious about the rationale.

grossly disadvantaged industries = industries labeled as grossly disadvantaged = industries that managed to talk politicians in to giving them a huge advantage

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#198

Post by jcims » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:54 PM UTC

implements wrote: post #182

jcims wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WalMart turned their supply chain into a competitive advantage 30-40 years ago. I saw it as an employee first, their inventory control in the store was ridiculous back in the 80's. Then I saw it again working with an EDI shop (Sterling Commerce) in the 90's. Everything was electronic. We'd get these little mom and pop shops calling in trying to get their bisync modems working so they could upload their ANSI X12 810's…

Sterling Commerce - that’s a name I haven’t heard in a •long• time. Do you by any chance remember a company called “EDES” (Electronic Data Exchange Service)?

There's a tickle in a neuron but it could be self-induced. What was the relationship?

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#199

Post by breischl » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:56 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #192

Retric wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am convinced a low tariff of ~3% on all goods and services to every country is a good idea. But that’s never what happens, you get a huge mix of zero to insanity based on which industries have political power. As such a blanket ban on tariffs became a rallying cry. Food is often used as the counter example, but IMO domestic production is less valuable than a multi year stockpile.

why 3%? to overcome inflation? and why on everything instead of grossly disadvantaged industries? i haven't spent much time thinking about such details, so curious about the rationale.

Not the person you're asking, but I could see doing it to "internalize" the risk of rare events like what we're seeing right now. Basically it applies an incentive towards regionalization over globalization, that can make the system more resilient to distant events.

Re: Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?

#200

Post by hintymad » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:57 PM UTC

I'm afraid it will be hard for the US to bring back its supply chain. The US has been moving out its manufacturing business for at least three decades. As a result, we've lost generations of talent in manufacturing and supply chain. It's not like we can bring back the talents overnight.

And even if we create redundancies in the US, the redundancies need to stay competitive. Otherwise, we will just repeat the sad stories of the rare earth industry, the solar energy industry, or the electronic industry.