New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#131

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

paulmd wrote: post #110

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand triage, but triage is only triage because it has to be - if we can prevent that from happening we should. That's my point. Let's try as much as possible to prevent these life or death scenarios from occurring. For young people to act in a way that will get us into a triage situation is an incredibly selfish act that is preventable.

We're going to be in a triage situation regardless . Yes, people shouldn't be doing stupid things that increase risk, but is it the cause of the problem, would not doing it fix the problem? No. Singling out particular groups of people for doing stupid things at one point in time isn't really fair. There are olds who keep going to church as well, they have just as much culpability here. But it's much more popular to p…

I'm pushing back against the ageism. The initial claim was "Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population." I'm saying that's not true and irresponsible. Absolutely everyone needs to be held accountable for being irresponsible.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#132

Post by psychlops » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:20 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #89

psychlops wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use their daily updated website* for statistics which don't break down age/hospitalization. Deaths will come either by the coronavirus and/or by the poverty created by the extreme social measures suggested by the ongoing mania. I tend to believe the latter will kill more and be longer lasting. * https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...

A lot of people have responded here - the ICU rates seem very very high for even the young and healthy - which tells me people are going to die as the beds get swamped. There's already a softening to people's needs in regards to healthcare and the economy - can you imagine the US seriously discussing any form of UBI 3 weeks ago? While I understand it's going to be a tough hole to get out of, the economic levers seem…

The United States is not necessarily headed down the direction of "not enough beds"* that seems to be fashionable thinking today. There is advance warning and precedent far more information already at hand.

* https://www.niskanencenter.org/is-u-s-health-care-well-equip...

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#133

Post by DoofusOfDeath » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:25 PM UTC

Darkphibre wrote: post #105

AntonStratiev wrote: post #87

Introducing social distancing for the entire population comes at huge economic and social cost. It is more effective to follow these three simple measures: 1. Symptomatic cases stay at home for 7 days 2. All household members of symptomatic cases stay at home for 14 days 3. Social distancing for the over 70 population only https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Social distancing of the entire…

Italy is proof that we need to slow this down for months longer. Our medical system was projected to only have enough N95 masks and related supplies for two weeks of a pandemic... sure enough, we're having to cobble together makeshift supplies MacGyver style here in Washington. In a couple weeks, more of our front-line medical staff will start getting sick (the first case just occurred here), and requiring their 14-d…

I wonder if mildly symptomatic healthcare providers should treat patients known to have the same strain. As opposed to fully benching those providers, I mean.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#134

Post by psychlops » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 7:26 PM UTC

raducu wrote: post #53

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths are all fine and good, but do you know statistics on hospitalizations for the under 50 crowd? Those are the resources that are important - even if the under 50 doesn't die from it but requires hospitalization that's both a resource that can't be used by the above 50's, as well as a possible death if there isn't a bed for them.

In Europe, 50% of ICU patients are under 50 or 60 years of age, so there.

Where did you find this data?

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#135

Post by sojournerc » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

mattnewton wrote: post #127

sojournerc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've also heard it, but I think we need more data. If true, it would go against all priors for how humans build immunity to viruses - especially coronavirus (common cold). There may be a time limit to immunity, but having none at all after recovery would be rare indeed. Without significant evidence (more than one somewhat anecdotal case of re-emergence), there's little reason to assume the body doesn't "remember" the…

> If true, it would go against all priors for how humans build immunity to viruses - especially coronavirus (common cold). Another possible implication is that there could be multiple strains in circulation, not that the first strain wasn’t immunized against. You are totally right that we need more evidence and this is very unlikely to be happening. But, I am trying to convince OP to continue to be cautious even if t…

I am OP, and I'm definitely going to remain cautious. I appreciate your concern.

I will continue self-quarantine for another couple weeks, and will definitely continue social-distancing measures etc. etc. after that.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#136

Post by nostrademons » Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

AntonStratiev wrote: post #87

Introducing social distancing for the entire population comes at huge economic and social cost. It is more effective to follow these three simple measures: 1. Symptomatic cases stay at home for 7 days 2. All household members of symptomatic cases stay at home for 14 days 3. Social distancing for the over 70 population only https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Social distancing of the entire…

With half of infections being completely asymptomatic, this doesn't work. You need to do what South Korea and some towns in Italy have been doing successfully: widespread, fast, free testing, and then anyone who tests positive is isolated for 14 days.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#137

Post by psychlops » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #131

paulmd wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're going to be in a triage situation regardless . Yes, people shouldn't be doing stupid things that increase risk, but is it the cause of the problem, would not doing it fix the problem? No. Singling out particular groups of people for doing stupid things at one point in time isn't really fair. There are olds who keep going to church as well, they have just as much culpability here. But it's much more popular to p…

I'm pushing back against the ageism. The initial claim was "Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population." I'm saying that's not true and irresponsible. Absolutely everyone needs to be held accountable for being irresponsible.

The virus is ageist (it is also sexist and doesn't like smokers much), not the sentence. Specifically, which part of that sentence do you believe is not true?

You may subjectively claim irresponsible, but the measures being taken across the entire population are not without consequences.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#138

Post by epmaybe » Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 8:07 PM UTC

epmaybe wrote: post #31

tejohnso wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By the time I am able to get tested it seems likely that I won't be shedding the virus any longer, and will test negative. Shouldn't the test detect antibodies that your immune system has developed?

Yes, but I don't think the PCR test is testing for that, currently. It's looking for pieces of viral RNA that are present in your blood. Antibody serology tests aren't readily available anywhere yet. In fact, the CDC is still developing theirs.

Can't edit this, but to be completely correct, it's looking for viral RNA present in samples, not necessarily blood. More commonly sputum or respiratory samples when it comes to coronavirus.