Why is this post flagged?
Because it's just a series of loaded questions. If you have already drawn conclusions then why ask the question in the first place.
Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
51–60 of 141 posts
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#52Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
> far, far more people die of very common things More people die of those things in a year than have died of COVID-19 so far but that's the wrong comparison. There's real science and math behind predictions of a much higher toll which would make the comparison look very different. There's also an aspect of who has control over outcomes. People can protect themselves from various ills by eating right, exercising, not…
I agree that we're not looking at a year's worth of data, but that was also kind of the point... we're not looking at a year's worth of data. If 97 people have died in the US so far... you've got a _long_ way to go, even looking at an exponential growth rate, to even approach the top 10 causes of death in the US. According to the CDC 47,000 people killed themselves in 2017 [1], and that's #10. Also 100% preventable.…
> You also have control over your own susceptibility and spread of something like the flu or the common cold, but no one in the US ever wears a mask to prevent that (though in other countries that is a common sight).
The mask culture in the US is lacking as you point out. But there is a flu vaccine. They give those out free at every corner/office in the country, pretty much. Yet the US still sees 10s of thousands of dead per year. Also of note, the flu is less fatal (case level) & less transmittable than COVID-19.
> If 97 people have died in the US so far
160[0]
Look back at 1918, 1957, 1968 flu pandemics[1]. 1918 isn't too recent, but the last two mentioned killed 100k+ in the US, and at least 1 million worldwide.
If we get less deaths from COVID-19 than we do with seasonal flu - that doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't worth reacting to.
With how easy COVID-19 spreads, the relatively high % of required hospitalization, and lack of a vaccine is exactly why Hubei/Lombardy got in the state they did. Some would prefer to "wait and see" if it gets to those levels in the US, but many would rather act now instead of later.
It will certainly be interesting to see how the COVID-19 situation pans out. For the record, I hope you end up being correct!
[0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic#Influenza_p...
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#54Well, so far judging by deaths / cases on plague.com, we're looking at 4% fatality rate. The average seasonal flu fatality rate is 0.1%. The mortality rate for H1N1 was 0.02%. For Ebola, the average mortality rate is around 50%.
China severely restricted travel and managed to keep the infection rate around 0.008% of their population. We're still in the early stages in the US, with about 0.00269% of the population infected.
In the US, about 8% of the population gets the seasonal flu every year on average. That's about 28 million people. Take 4% of that 28 million people and we'd be looking at 1.12 million people dying from the flu every year if it had the same 4% mortality rate that Covid19 has.
So sheltering in place to limit transmission and keep the number of cases low could save many, many lives.
None of the above estimates take into account the risk we run of running out of hospital beds and ventilators. That would increase the mortality rate.
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#55Says "Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information." Spreads youtube Video of a guy who didn't even realize that he made an impostor his second in command leading a public health office in Germany. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gert_Postel Article: Why Wolfgang Wodarg's Statements have little to do with science. By a well respected fact checking and inve…
> OP is a great example of how a disinformation campaign by conspiracy theorists works. They make you believe they have credible sources you can rely on they base their arguments Here's what I did before submitting this: - Saw this video on youtube, found the non-political arguments to be convincing. - Since I've never heard about Wolfgang Wodarg before, I googled and found his wikipedia page [1], which suggested he…
How are his arguments non-political if he follows the agenda as a politician and doctor to prove over eleven years unsuccessfully that pandemics are fake?
He was an expert in what field? He's not a virologist or epidemiologist and preferably spreads his "theories" through right wing propaganda.
And if that weren't enough red flags he also had someone working as his second in command that wasn't even a doctor. He made a mailman a public health official. Please read this out loud to understand how incompetent of a doctor you have to be to make the mailman the second highest health inspection officer in the city.
What of those things qualified him the most to you as an expert to talk about pandemics, virology and epidemiology? I am interested.
With all due respect, I am not the one with the clouded judgement sir. This seems to be a common thing to pretend other people don't see the "truth" in the circles you seem to be active in.
All the relevant points of this video are bullshit. And do not benefit anyone in this crisis, but they spread dangerous misconceptions and want to portrait the gov/system as a bad actor. And by posting them so do you.
Also you got a few great answers to your questions in other comments, go read them , look them up, verify them and then make your opinion around those facts. This is all the attention you'll get from me. Have a nice day and best of health to the wife and kids and that you stay safe in this crisis.
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#56Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…
> far, far more people die of very common things More people die of those things in a year than have died of COVID-19 so far but that's the wrong comparison. There's real science and math behind predictions of a much higher toll which would make the comparison look very different. There's also an aspect of who has control over outcomes. People can protect themselves from various ills by eating right, exercising, not…
This social responsibility argument is vague and will stay there, because the flu still kills many people, so why are we letting so many people die instead of locking down? Why don't we lock down the schools for the flu to protect those who have immune weaknesses? Where's the moral line or set of criteria for when people's deaths are treated as routine numbers?
When economies shut down, at some point people will also start dying and suffering. Is there a quantification for that? How do we trade those lives with other lives? Do we have a morally clear picture of who we're trading for whom?
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#57Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…
You are so dumb that reading this hurts. Apparently you think this is a hoax. People like you that don't take this seriously right now will reel in the pure crisis and deaths that ensues. It's obviously worse than 1918 flu. The spread in the US is already very serious. Call anyone in NYC and ask. Please everyone don't listen to this utter fool. My jaw is on the floor because this guy's math is so basically flawed. Go…
You can't attack someone else like this on HN, regardless of how wrong they are or you feel they are. You owe the community much better if you're posting here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and don't post like this again.
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
> far, far more people die of very common things More people die of those things in a year than have died of COVID-19 so far but that's the wrong comparison. There's real science and math behind predictions of a much higher toll which would make the comparison look very different. There's also an aspect of who has control over outcomes. People can protect themselves from various ills by eating right, exercising, not…
This social responsibility argument is vague and will stay there, because the flu still kills many people, so why are we letting so many people die instead of locking down? Why don't we lock down the schools for the flu to protect those who have immune weaknesses? Where's the moral line or set of criteria for when people's deaths are treated as routine numbers? When economies shut down, at some point people will also…
> because the flu still kills many people
As I've already pointed out, that's a false equivalence. COVID-19 != flu. We can (and I believe should) respond differently to different things. It's so simple a child could get it.
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#59Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…
I totally agree, in case someone brings up Italy and their current number of deaths to Corona - this article describes deaths to the common flu from 2013 through 2017, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121....
The numbers look like this:
Season - Deaths:
2013/14 - 7,027
2014/15 - 20,259
2015/16 - 15,801
2016/17 - 24,981
So while every death is tragic, the common flu is still a worse threat to the elderly and that is even though a vaccine is produced every year.
Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
#60Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…
Why are you completely ignoring the exponential nature of coronavirus? The amount of deaths have doubled fairly quickly and are now at 10k worldwide. The number of cases worldwide continues to grow exponentially.
7 more doublings, which could happen as soon as 5 weeks from now (I believe the doubling rate is around ~5 days) would bring us to 1 million deaths. And there is no particular reason it would stop there.
My understanding is that it is not unlikely for something like half of the world to get infected if we can't contain it effectively. If the death rate is 1% -- which could easily be higher if the medical systems are overwhelmed -- then we are looking at 35 million dead.