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New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

directorsblog.nih.gov

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Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#61

Post by 1001101 »

surfmike wrote: post #16
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Hopefully serological tests will be widely available which would tell us if we’ve had it or not.

It sounds like there are antibody tests in the offing:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-...

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#62

Post by kubav »

krzat wrote: post #18
anon102010 wrote: post #8

Fascinating that they recommend you take OFF masks while on things like crowded BART trains and airports (I had lots leftover from forest fires) if you are "healthy", even though that might mean you are asymptomatic, or not yet diagnosed etc. Despite claims masks (with good adherence to wearing) are highly effective - primarily by reducing hand to mouth/nose contact, secondarily as a direct barrier. And surgical mask…

Really? Where do they recommend this? Sounds insane. Czech Republic recently started requiring face covers so we will have results in few weeks.

There is really low number of infected people and also low density of people walking outside in Czech republic. I am not sure you can make a lot out of it. I think requiring face covers outside is more panic than reasonable measure.

I live in Prague and when I go outside I meet someone once in few minutes and majority of the people are not wearing face cover despite it is required. Mostly they have it prepared on the neck to put it on when they go inside. One doctor in TV did not recommend extensive usage of face masks as cheap or improvised masks tend to get wet after 20 minutes. This significantly reduces their effectiveness. Risk of being infected outside is really low unless you are in crowded area.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#63

Post by dnautics »

scott_s wrote: post #46
thu2111 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about That's a very strong claim. SK has done a lot of testing relative to most places but it's still: a) A tiny amount relative to the population b) Not a random sample of the population Their tests were done at testing clinics that people had to take themselves to, which in many ca…

China tested hundreds of thousands of people in provinces with known cases, and found very little evidence of asymptomatic circulation. See my comment from a week ago, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22475853 , which quotes Bruce Aylward, an assistance director general and epidemiologist for the WHO. Our current evidence points to there not being millions of asymptomatic people.

What is the detection limit threshold on that test?

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#64

Post by saiya-jin »

PappaPatat wrote: post #14
chrisa wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the doctors on one of the press conferences (sorry, can't remember which one), said that she would prefer the term "physical distancing" as well for the same reason. She said that "social distancing" is a medical technical term that doesn't translate super well to the public.

> She said that "social distancing" is a medical technical term that doesn't translate super well to the public. Which is 100% the opposite of what I in my daily life observe: everyone, young & old, private & work, calls it social distancing. It addresses the issue better too, then the "proposed" physical distancing. When you pass people physically the (need and) possibility to keep that 2 meters is often impossible…

I travel in full bus squeezed tight with other people, but I am not socializing so I should be then fine, right?

This kind of double meaning will literally kill people out there. Physical distance is a clear term. Social can and will be understood in many ways. I can imagine somebody thinking if he isn't on facebook on phone, he is distancing socially.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#65

Post by psychlops »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #36
psychlops wrote: post #25

Given the ongoing statistics coming out of South Korea (which I'd suggest are the most accurate) where only one person under 50 has died. It seems that these safeguards would be best spent around those aged 60+ and perhaps those 50+ with other health issues. Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population.

Deaths are all fine and good, but do you know statistics on hospitalizations for the under 50 crowd? Those are the resources that are important - even if the under 50 doesn't die from it but requires hospitalization that's both a resource that can't be used by the above 50's, as well as a possible death if there isn't a bed for them.

I use their daily updated website* for statistics which don't break down age/hospitalization.

Deaths will come either by the coronavirus and/or by the poverty created by the extreme social measures suggested by the ongoing mania. I tend to believe the latter will kill more and be longer lasting.

* https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#66

Post by makomk »

scott_s wrote: post #46
thu2111 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about That's a very strong claim. SK has done a lot of testing relative to most places but it's still: a) A tiny amount relative to the population b) Not a random sample of the population Their tests were done at testing clinics that people had to take themselves to, which in many ca…

China tested hundreds of thousands of people in provinces with known cases, and found very little evidence of asymptomatic circulation. See my comment from a week ago, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22475853 , which quotes Bruce Aylward, an assistance director general and epidemiologist for the WHO. Our current evidence points to there not being millions of asymptomatic people.

I haven't been able to make heads nor tales of his logic. In Guangdong province, at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47% of people tested were positive. Guangdong province has a population of about 110 million people. If that was a representative random sample, that would mean a lot of infections, so he's clearly relying on the fact that it's a sample of people who saw a doctor because they had symptoms. Except that I don't see how you can use that to say anything about asymptomatic cases. It just doesn't make sense.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#67

Post by alexandercrohde »

I'm sorry but what does this title even mean?

Define "beat Covid-19."

Not to be a hardass, but I'd prefer real information not babyfood. Something akin to "Currently predicted US deaths without social distancing: X. With social distancing: Y. Potentially recurring each year"

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#68

Post by fspeech »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

I think the term "asymptomatic" gives a wrong picture of the severity of the disease, when various authors use it to mean "testing positive before disease onset" or even outright untested due to testing criteria and availability.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#69

Post by dboreham »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Two things to know:

1. The current test is designed for the scenario that someone shows up to medical provider with symptoms. Test answers the question: are the symptoms caused by COVID-19?, quite reliably (negligible false positives, low false negatives).

2. The current test won't produce terribly useful data in someone without symptoms (either before, or after the illness). This is why for example certain well-known political figures saying they have been tested and cleared after potential exposure is not very meaningful.

Therefore ideas like: let's randomly test the population to see how much of this is out there, and I had what I think was COVID-19, I want to be tested to confirm, are not practical.

A test that can determine if someone was infected in the past is in development still.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#70

Post by kire2345 »

dorfsmay wrote: post #21
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Is there a test, or, what are the chances that there will be a test, to check if somebody already had covid19?

The German virologist Christian Drosten mentioned in his daily coronavirus update that some specialized labs at least in Germany are able to do an antibody blood test.

There are also some commercial antibody tests, which have some error rate and as all antibody tests can identify the virus after 7-10 days after onset of symptoms.

https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/15-Coronavirus-Update-In...

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