Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 141 posts

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#31

Post by [deleted] »

chrismeller wrote: post #22
dmarchand90 wrote: post #14

No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes, things will be fine, but we are looking at millions dying well before their time. In Italy death rates are 5x beyond normal. They are not even able to bury all the bodies at this time the mortality rate is so high. Angela Merkel, who rarely gives speeches, ha…

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#32

Post by bbimbop »

tossitfarther wrote: post #10

Early last week, one of the hospitals near me (NYC) had zero confirmed cases but a couple of people who were exhibiting Covid-like symptoms bad enough they required hospitalization. On Thursday of last week, this hospital had their first several confirmed positive cases. Keep in mind that in the early days of this, the criteria for testing in the US has been "you are already very sick and you require hospitalization…

This guy knows what's up. Thank you.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#33

Post by chrismeller »

bbimbop wrote: post #27
chrismeller wrote: post #16

Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…

You are so dumb that reading this hurts. Apparently you think this is a hoax. People like you that don't take this seriously right now will reel in the pure crisis and deaths that ensues. It's obviously worse than 1918 flu. The spread in the US is already very serious. Call anyone in NYC and ask. Please everyone don't listen to this utter fool. My jaw is on the floor because this guy's math is so basically flawed. Go…

Thanks. I respect your opinion, so very eloquently put, as well.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#34

Post by notacoward »

chrismeller wrote: post #16

Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…

> far, far more people die of very common things

More people die of those things in a year than have died of COVID-19 so far but that's the wrong comparison. There's real science and math behind predictions of a much higher toll which would make the comparison look very different.

There's also an aspect of who has control over outcomes. People can protect themselves from various ills by eating right, exercising, not smoking, etc. There's no connection to other people's actions or outcomes. With communicable disease, the person who's not worried about their own outcome can cause the literal death of other people who had no choice about being born with certain medical conditions that made them more susceptible. You might feel you're Living Right and you're at no risk yourself, but - as has been pointed out many times but apparently not enough - It's Not Just About You. Your actions are connected to others' outcomes. There's a social responsibility to avoid becoming a vector for infection.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#35

Post by _y5hn »

Nobody is immune to this from before. Everyone might contract this at the same time.

We don't know exactly what this is, or what it may become. The infection rates are much higher than flu.

Most countries aren't as prepared as some Asian countries that've had to deal with such situations before.

After short time with exponential spread, countries will shut down anyway, and then it's too late to avoid becoming Italy.

It's prudent to stop or slow this down, until we've had time to prepare and learn more about the disease.

Nobody knows anything for sure in this situation.

We should've already prepared for this eventuality anyway.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#36

Post by pwinnski »

chrismeller wrote: post #22
dmarchand90 wrote: post #14

No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes, things will be fine, but we are looking at millions dying well before their time. In Italy death rates are 5x beyond normal. They are not even able to bury all the bodies at this time the mortality rate is so high. Angela Merkel, who rarely gives speeches, ha…

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they…

Odd how you switch from the reputable CDC to whatever "liveupdate.world" is. There have been 97[0] reported COVID-19 deaths in the US as of yesterday.

That said, "all causes ever" is ridiculous. Even worst-cases scenarios[1] put COVID-19 as the potential third cause of death in the US.

UPDATE: I think you weren't reading your own source well. There are +10 "new deaths" since an unspecified time, but that site is reporting 160 deaths overall.[2] I don't know how that's sourced, though, so I would be leery of trusting it, even though it makes a stronger case than the CDC.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/corona...

[2] https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/p/en/official-corona-vi...

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#37

Post by chrismeller »

notacoward wrote: post #34
chrismeller wrote: post #16

Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…

> far, far more people die of very common things More people die of those things in a year than have died of COVID-19 so far but that's the wrong comparison. There's real science and math behind predictions of a much higher toll which would make the comparison look very different. There's also an aspect of who has control over outcomes. People can protect themselves from various ills by eating right, exercising, not…

I agree that we're not looking at a year's worth of data, but that was also kind of the point... we're not looking at a year's worth of data.

If 97 people have died in the US so far... you've got a _long_ way to go, even looking at an exponential growth rate, to even approach the top 10 causes of death in the US. According to the CDC 47,000 people killed themselves in 2017 [1], and that's #10. Also 100% preventable.

You also have control over your own susceptibility and spread of something like the flu or the common cold, but no one in the US ever wears a mask to prevent that (though in other countries that is a common sight).

1: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Edit: It wasn't 8 people who have died, it was 97 according to the CDC. My bad.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#38

Post by dmarchand90 »

pwinnski wrote: post #36
chrismeller wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they…

Odd how you switch from the reputable CDC to whatever "liveupdate.world" is. There have been 97[0] reported COVID-19 deaths in the US as of yesterday. That said, "all causes ever" is ridiculous. Even worst-cases scenarios[1] put COVID-19 as the potential third cause of death in the US. UPDATE: I think you weren't reading your own source well. There are +10 "new deaths" since an unspecified time, but that site is repo…

Yes sorry, I was copying the terminology from the article poorly. It's going to be higher than historical events, but not other medical causes. E.g. 4x deaths of the civil war.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#39

Post by Jamesbeam »

Says

"Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information."

Spreads youtube Video of a guy who didn't even realize that he made an impostor his second in command leading a public health office in Germany.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gert_Postel

Article: Why Wolfgang Wodarg's Statements have little to do with science. By a well respected fact checking and investigative journalism group.

https://correctiv.org/faktencheck/hintergrund/2020/03/18/cor... ( Translate with Google Translate )

OP is a great example of how a disinformation campaign by conspiracy theorists works. They make you believe they have credible sources you can rely on they base their arguments on until you start digging and find out the stuff above and that this is the same guy who voted against a Child Predator law in Germany and is heavily politically and financially involved in spreading the bullshit he does.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#40

Post by dmarchand90 »

chrismeller wrote: post #22
dmarchand90 wrote: post #14

No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes, things will be fine, but we are looking at millions dying well before their time. In Italy death rates are 5x beyond normal. They are not even able to bury all the bodies at this time the mortality rate is so high. Angela Merkel, who rarely gives speeches, ha…

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they…

Yes correct certainly not more deaths than other medical causes. As in the article I meant major wars or terrorist events.

Also if you check Italy, whose stats the US is currently following, death number ~infected number (t = -10days).

So I would say let's be very careful and it we see +5,000 deaths in the US in two weeks it will be a strong confirmation of how serious this is.

Post reply on HN