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Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

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Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#21

Post by Schaulustiger »

Regarding your question about if we might accidentally test for flu or other, already existing corona virii:

This was a topic of discussion in yesterday's talk [1] with Dr. Drosten, a virologist who played an important part in the development of the currently used PCR test. He said that there were extensive studies done with hundreds of samples from both flu patients and patients infected with other corona virii and none returned a positive result. The only other positive results were from corona virii that are special to certain animals (bats, some cows IIRC), but none of those are present in humans. So the accuracy of our current PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 seems to be extremely high.

[1] (transcript in German) https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/16-Coronavirus-Update-Wi...

Here's a quick (and slightly condensed) translation of the relevant parts: "There was a big validation study [for the PCR test]. We tested with a big number of patient samples from patients with flu/cold diseases and other corona viruses. Not once did we get a false positive. [...] It is true though that [the current PCR test] would yield positive results against the old SARS corona virus, but that hasn't been confirmed in a human for 16 years. And theoretically, the test would give a positive result on some bat corona viruses, but they do not affect humans."

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#22

Post by chrismeller »

dmarchand90 wrote: post #14

No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes, things will be fine, but we are looking at millions dying well before their time. In Italy death rates are 5x beyond normal. They are not even able to bury all the bodies at this time the mortality rate is so high. Angela Merkel, who rarely gives speeches, ha…

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k).

According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2]

[1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/

Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they haven't proven anything different. Edit 2: It was pointed out that the source I used for the "8 deaths" was incorrect - it was 8 new deaths, there have been 97 total according to the CDC. My bad, but I think my point still stands regardless.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#26

Post by evanmoran »

It will be hard to tell if we're overreacting if we respond correctly, I think. The exponential nature of it means being earlier is _much_ better with all countermeasures (social distancing, mass testing, vaccines) and any success that slows the rate of growth will make it seem many orders of magnitude smaller than it was. So if the US tops out at 20K deaths for Covid-19 it will look more like the flu in size, but in reality the smaller total was caused by the extraordinary measures being taken.

As for hospitals and increased infection rates, here in Seattle I've heard that people are calling ahead and arranging where to go. They are also waiting in their cars while being checked into hospitals so they don't even use public waiting areas. Pretty smart, and definitely not a panicked response!

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#27

Post by bbimbop »

chrismeller wrote: post #16

Overall I would have to say absolutely, yes. The number of infections doesn't justify this level of panic, let alone the number of deaths. I realise there is an element of "prevention" here, but far, far more people die of very common things (flu, traffic accidents, smoking-related conditions, being overweight, etc.) in the US alone every year, some of which are also 100% preventable, than have died worldwide of coro…

You are so dumb that reading this hurts. Apparently you think this is a hoax. People like you that don't take this seriously right now will reel in the pure crisis and deaths that ensues. It's obviously worse than 1918 flu. The spread in the US is already very serious. Call anyone in NYC and ask.

Please everyone don't listen to this utter fool. My jaw is on the floor because this guy's math is so basically flawed. Google Italy and have a nice day.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#28

Post by Yetanfou »

I can only speak from 'our' perspective here in Sweden so don't shoot if you don't agree but... in general I think people under-react rather than over-react when it comes to handling the oncoming epidemic. The main problem is that the disease is already causing an overload on the health care system in parts of the country while the epidemic has just gotten started. If left unchecked it will peak in about 2.5 months when close to half a million people will likely be in need of hospitalisation with about 150.000 of them in need of critical care. About 40.000 people will die given a mortality of 0.7% (as measured in Korea) and a 70% fraction of the population being infected.

There are 520 IC places in the whole of Sweden.

Even if these numbers are overstated by a factor 10 - which is possible although the SEIR-model gives even higher numbers (800.000 hospitalised, 200.000 in need of critical care) - it is clear that those in need of critical care will most likely not get the help they need leading to an increased mortality.

For a single individual the disease does not seem to be as large a threat as it is being made out to be by some. For a society unused to see people die from infectious disease it stands to be devastating. Either society will have to accept that infectious disease can and will kill people when it is allowed free reign or we'll have to do our best to make sure the limit the amount of suffering due to loss of life, loss of quality of life, loss of income, employment, economic potential and other factors as much as possible.

What is needed now is a comprehensive testing effort to find out how far the infection has spread over the country. If it turns out a sizeable part of the population already carries antibodies against SARS-CoV2 it will be clear that the disease is not as much of a threat as it seems to be. Comprehensive testing will also allow for the early isolation of infected people and will help in limiting the load on the health care system.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#29

Post by pwinnski »

1. In the US, we test twice, and only with two positives do we say a person is confirmed to have COVID-19. Before that, we say "probable COVID-19." So is it used correctly everywhere? Impossible to say. In the US, yes it is.

2. In Korea, yes. In the US, no. Other places, mostly no.

3. Unlikely. We have a bigger issue with people not going to hospitals, and therefore spreading the disease. Korea went from 30 cases to 8000 cases because of one such person. [0]

4. More likely is that flu deaths will decrease because people are taking precautions that they normally do not. We should take flu much more seriously than we do, and the same precautions we take against COVID-19 are effective against flu.

Overall, you seem to be focused on hospitals, but here in the US, that's just not something people rush to, due to expense. Here in the US, at least, we are not overreacting. It may not be possible to overreact! What I mean is: If we have exactly the right level of reaction, it will look like overreaction in hindsight, so we can't even know whether we overreacted.

[0] https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#30

Post by bbimbop »

salmon30salmon wrote: post #6

Yes. The biggest issue is that we lack any idea regarding how infected the population currently is, or was. We don't know if 25% of all Americans have had a minor infection at this point and are less vulnerable. We don't know how it hung around Washington State undetected for six weeks. On the one hand, when dealing with the risks associated with a pandemic it is wise to error on the side of caution, but as we go thr…

You will likely regret saying this in about 5 days. It's already way too much. Call anyone in NYC if they know of a first hand case. NYC is tracking toward Italy more so than parts of China.
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