To everyone saying "great, but why didn't this start months ago?"
Well, sure, but the second best time to start is now.
GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
51–60 of 584 posts
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
the correct response should look like an overreaction in hindsight. But it's tough to explain the cost of the overreaction if said overreaction prevented all of these problems. I make the analogy with an engineer receiving accolades for fixing bugs and outages with heroic effort. But the engineer that creates trouble free code, that never has any problems, but takes a long time to create code that's bug free seems to…
Yes, it probably will look like an overreaction, but that doesn't provide carte-blanche to overreact every time there's a new virus. As GP mentioned, this happens every few years. Most of the time, it fizzles out. We can't transition all production to hospital equipment every few years, even if it is the right call twice a century. I have often reprimanded (and have in turn been reprimanded) for overengineering a sol…
So, how many lives will justify spending more money?
Should we spend $1 billion to save 500,000 people? Less? What's your cutoff for (most probable number of lives saved)*(money per life)?
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#53If we were halfway rational, we would have started this in January. Failing that, start now.
This is pure hindsight. This didn't warrant that kind of response in January, not by a longshot. In January it looked exactly like the other comparatively minor respiratory viruses that pop up every few years. We can't shut down industry and retool factories just in case.
Maybe if your only source of news was Fox News.
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#54This is definitely great and uplifting news but I am not sure why GM or Ford is the one on top of list for this endeavor? There are a bunch of second source assembly houses that build medical equipment for the big players. Seems like it would make more sense for them to build it with some sort of FDA fast pass. Discretion, I work for a carmaker company but my opinion is of my own only.
> why GM or Ford is the one on top of list for this endeavor? Ford and GM were massive manufacturers when WWII reared its head. That gives them a rich history of wartime production [1]. The principal cost in these sorts of shifts can be bureaucratic. Having cultural capital to call on is invaluable. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_U...
> Having cultural capital to call on is invaluable.
How similar is the culture today compared to 75+ years ago?
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
> why GM or Ford is the one on top of list for this endeavor? Ford and GM were massive manufacturers when WWII reared its head. That gives them a rich history of wartime production [1]. The principal cost in these sorts of shifts can be bureaucratic. Having cultural capital to call on is invaluable. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_U...
> Having cultural capital to call on is invaluable. How similar is the culture today compared to 75+ years ago?
> How similar is the culture today compared to 75+ years ago?
Doesn’t matter. “We did this before and must do it again” is a powerful call to action. That cultural capital spins up the bureaucratic flywheel.
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, I'm as big of a Tesla fan as you'll find but the lack of closing the factory in one of the epicenters has really lowered my opinion of his leadership. While I understand he's one to zig when everyone zags I feel like this will be a case where it will become clear that it was a bad call.
I guess people at the factory do few close contacts which can lead to virus transmission. And I guess they are supplied with hand sanitizers and handwashing is mandatory. On the other hand, people get paid, the factory is saved from bankruptcy so people can continue working in the factory even after the end of the outbreak. I'm not sure that closing the factory is a universally good decision for society. Edit: Englis…
Considering that the virus can live for up to 9 days on metal, glass or plastic[1] I'm not sure that mandatory hand washing is going to do much in an assembly line where everyone interacts directly vehicles on the line.
[1] https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-670...
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell that to South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan who mobilized immediately (South Korea had their first case on the same day we did, Jan 8) Also, for H1N1 (which ended up being much less deadly) Obama had a million tests made in the first 2 weeks from the first US case. We're now 2 months from the first US case with less than 20k tests done.
Amazing. It shows us that the power law is at work in government effectiveness. A capable executive branch can get orders of magnitude more accomplished in a given timeframe than an inept one. It’s likely that thousands will die who didn’t have to because many American voters forgot the importance of a baseline level of administrative competence. Hopefully this will remind them.
I'm not convinced things would have played out much differently under any other administration to be honest.
Note that many other western countries are struggling as well.
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, if we had started back then there is almost zero chance that we'd need to pull in additional factories like this. Although arguably there might not be much need now either. The companies that make these have said that production can be increased.
In fairness, this is a discussion of hypotheticals at this point. We're likely to need the ventilators. Other nations are likely to need the ventilators. We have to get as many companies as is reasonable making them to meet the need. Detroit certainly has the engineering and manufacturing expertise to retool in a hurry. It's the sort of thing they do a lot of, so that sounds like a reasonable place to look for additi…
I just saw on Twitter that hospital in NY is already "double respirating" people, meaning two people share one respirator, so it seems the time to act was well before yesterday.
I don't see how people can read that and not say "Holy crap, let's not let people suffocate to death on their own phlegm" if it just means spending a few billion dollars.
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#59This is what Musk should be doing.
Elon Musk does not owe people anything. If he decides to produce them, that's fine, but he doesn't have to. But the governments should buy these ventilators from private companies, so private companies like Tesla or GM were incentivized to produce these ventilators. Edit: added and then removed a comment about downvotes
There's an idea of civic and social duty. The basic idea is that when one's society faces an existential crisis then those in that society with the means to help have a duty to do so. This is because the society in which they exist has provided them with a social structure that has, ideally, provided them with stability, some amount of prosperity, etc. It seems some people don't believe in this. It's sad.
This isn't about "lefts". It's about people who view their society as facing an existential crisis and believing that everyone in the society should respond to their duty. This duty may be as simple as social distancing but for those with productive means, it may mean working on vaccines, producing face masks, producing sanitary supplies, supplying food, etc.
Re: GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, it probably will look like an overreaction, but that doesn't provide carte-blanche to overreact every time there's a new virus. As GP mentioned, this happens every few years. Most of the time, it fizzles out. We can't transition all production to hospital equipment every few years, even if it is the right call twice a century. I have often reprimanded (and have in turn been reprimanded) for overengineering a sol…
So, how many lives will justify spending more money? Should we spend $1 billion to save 500,000 people? Less? What's your cutoff for (most probable number of lives saved)*(money per life)?
Why do you assume that lives will be saved by redistributing resources like the ancestor proposed?
Once in fifty years it will save lives, certainly. What about the shortage of other manufactured goods the other twenty times a century that you reassign factories to diseases that turn out to be nothing?
I think it's a bad idea because it will hurt people, not because I want to save money.
EDIT: Removed a political aside.