Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

repubblica.it

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

441–450 of 480 posts

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#441

Post by vanniv »

mycall wrote: post #435
Amarok wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's downvoted because it's dangerous and uninformed medical advice. You can treat flu (influenza) with osetalmivir. People with mild symptoms can still be at risk, further testing is needed [1] Please just phone your emergency line if you suspect you may have it. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22610265

Would not the influenza vaccine be better than using osetalmivir?

These serve different purposes.

If you are already infected, a vaccine is not useful.

But regardless, there is no approved treatment for COVID.

Gilead's new antiviral looks promising, and the Chloroquine/Azithromycin combo looks promising, too, but the first isn't approved for any use yet, and the second is an uncertain off-label use, so in either case, you aren't going to get those treatments unless the alternative is likely death, if you can get them them at all.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#442

Post by vanniv »

brandonhorst wrote: post #384
emaste wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tylenol / acetaminophen is not an NSAID.

Grandparent was saying that paracetamol is a synonym for Tylenlol/acetaminophen

Paracetamol is the same compound as Acetaminophen, and is sold under the Tylenol brand in the US.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#443

Post by vanniv »

notahacker wrote: post #187
easytiger wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The WHO predicted that 150 million people would be killed by avian flu https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2005/... Using the same logic that had lead to the severe predictions for cv19. For swine flu they promoted and stood by a CFR of 60%. Again turned out to be nonsense; nonsense known at the time to others https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract

Overestimates of the severity of the threat have much less harmful consequences than underestimates. For a start, actual casualty statistics are not independent from mitigation actions taken.

Don't underestimate the number of people whose lives will ultimately be shortened by the economic harm being done in panic over the virus.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#444

Post by vanniv »

jamesrcole wrote: post #29
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.

Those high rates are also dependant upon the fraction of cases detected.

We are currently seeing about a 9% hospitalization rate based on detected cases.

If we are really missing 75% of cases, then true hospitalization is only about 2.3%

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#445

Post by vanniv »

bart_spoon wrote: post #258
travmatt wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or it could be like the 1918 Spanish flu - a bad first wave that was most dangerous to the elderly, and a second wave that mutated and killed mostly young adults.

I don't know why there would be any reason to believe that would be the case. Generally viruses become less deadly over time, not more. The Spanish flu was an outlier.

Viruses generally become milder because of selective pressure to do so. If it kills the host, it doesn't get to spread as much.

Plus, of you get slightly sick, you probably continue your life and infect others. If you get horridly sick, you stay in bed and encounter no one.

WWI made the Spanish Flu have it's second wave. Mildly I'll soldiers stayed where they were. Really sick ones were sent in overcrowded trains far from the front lines back to overflowing hospitals with inadequate sanitation.

These lockdowns we are doing are encouraging a deadly second wave.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#446

Post by senordevnyc »

beatgammit wrote: post #225
arthur5005 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my biggest concern. I don’t even think this is “the big one”

Oh, it's absolutely not "the big one", which is why I'm so frustrated at all of the panic buying. It was pretty clear early on that this isn't that deadly and that the main issue with it is filling up hospitals. We later learned that the whole process from infection to recovery (well, enough to be released from a hospital) is about 2 weeks, maybe less. This isn't some society-collapsing event, but it does require con…

So when you get 1-2 months of essentials just in case, it’s a good idea, but when other people do it, it’s panic buying and overreaction?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#447

Post by petre »

rojobuffalo wrote: post #332
bcrosby95 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a virus that early on was reported as 3-4% to one that early on was reported as 0.4%. The cruise ship and South Korea are probably closest to the true death rate of this virus. CFR in South Korea is currently around 0.8%. A common "educated guess" I see from people that work on this is its probably around 0.5%-1% assuming you can get the care needed for it.

This reflects the opinions shared by Michael Osterholm, Amesh Adalja, and Nicholas Christakis: a final case mortality of ~0.7%. But just to highlight the point, that's on a strong assumption that critical cases receive proper medical attention. I don't think that's a safe assumption for the outbreak in the United States.

Now it's really not the time to speculate with numbers that could downplay the risks. We'll see in a few years. 0.\d+% could be someone we love. Keep safe. Prevent if you can.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#449

Post by riffraff »

spookthesunset wrote: post #369
joshuahedlund wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An anesthesiologist at a hospital in Bergamo, one of the cities with the most cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, told the paper that the intensive care unit was already at capacity, and doctors were being forced to start making difficult triage decisions, admitting people who desperately need mechanical ventilation based on age, life expectancy, and other factors. Just like in wartime. >…

That article is five days old. Find something from today suggesting the same. And make it relevant to the entire world. Italy is not a model for how this is going down in other countries. Every region is different (and more important has different data collection methods, making it hard to compare two areas) Again, nobody knows what the fuck is going on. Chill out, stop spreading panic and think critically about thin…

I am sad to say, official sources say that the Bergamo hospital ran out of intensive care units yesterday.

This is one of the articles in Italian, there are plenty if you look for the last 24h news.

https://it.notizie.yahoo.com/coronavirus-bergamo-terapia-int...

You are right that every country and region is different, but collection methods have nothing to do with the hospitals being flooded with sick people, that would be true if there were 1 or 1 million tests being administered.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#450

Post by nickm12 »

travisr wrote: post #236
jonplackett wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries. ( http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)

You might try sorting the countries in your select input. They appear to be in some random order and I almost gave up looking for the country I was interested in.

Came back from the link to leave the same comment. It's impossible to use that selector.
Post reply on HN