Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
1–10 of 68 posts
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#2Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions.
I keep asking this question and I get no response from anyone. This smells like group think. Are we not able to discuss such questions ?
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#3Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…
It does seem that we have blindly followed the Chinese's government's response to the outbreak without any real data. I'm guessing there may be large numbers of people who are affected who aren't really showing any symptoms other than typical cold/flu symptoms.
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#4Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…
The problem is not so much the health risk but the overwhelming of healthcare systems and lack of supplies. This isn't a theory, we already know the outcome of not slowing down infection rates fast enough (China, Italy, etc).
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#5Acting without reliable data reminds me of war. And that got me thinking: is this the closest exposure to "Total War" that any living generation (except the greatest generation) has experienced? It's not like recent wars that can be ignored by shutting off the TV. This captivates all of us and is becoming impossible to ignore.
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#6This article fails to make a single mention of Italy's case-load and its effect on Italy's healthcare system.
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#7Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…
I think the economic damage will be so remarkable that nobody will go hungry. We are seeing unprecedented pro-social behavior and legislation. Social safety nets are born out of crises.
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#8Acting without reliable data reminds me of war. And that got me thinking: is this the closest exposure to "Total War" that any living generation (except the greatest generation) has experienced? It's not like recent wars that can be ignored by shutting off the TV. This captivates all of us and is becoming impossible to ignore.
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#9Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…
I think it outweighs the economic damage.
But aside from that, we need the capability to hit the pause button on the economy during similar future events. What if for example a more extreme one in the future threatened to kill 10% of the population and required a significantly longer lockdown. By having a dry-run (in comparison) now, we might be much more prepared.
Re: Coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
#10Are we sure that the economic damage of the shutdown of the world economy out weighs the heath risks of the virus. Are we in group think here? A major recession/depression means a lot of people go hungry, lose access to medical care etc. Does anyone know of studies or research that looks at the health impacts of a shutdown vs. the health risk of the virus ? Just asking questions. I keep asking this question and I get…
It does seem that we have blindly followed the Chinese's government's response to the outbreak without any real data. I'm guessing there may be large numbers of people who are affected who aren't really showing any symptoms other than typical cold/flu symptoms.
> without any real data
The trouble is we can only get "real data" by testing more people. If we test more people we will almost certainly discover the numbers are worse than they appear now.
All that is to say that the situation can only be worse than we already know. I'm not sure more data would lead us to isolate less at all.
You might be right that there could be large numbers of people with the virus who are doing just fine right now, but we know from nearly 200,000 cases (that's plenty) that a non-trivial portion of cases require hospitalization. That's the whole problem, right there.
So we know hospitals can be overwhelmed and a LOT of people die for it. Healthcare workers included.
We know the situation is probably worse than it looks, but we won't know how much worse for weeks yet.
So without real data, it seems to err on the side of caution is absolutely essential. This can bring countries to their knees within weeks, and it has.
What would you propose we do without real data?