Live data from Hacker News

The state of the restaurant industry

opentable.com

371–380 of 591 posts

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability of my local Chinese place to serve customers is undiminished, my desire to eat Chinese food is undiminished, and all that's in the way is an ultimately temporary law. Agreed on this. But the rent paid out during the period of reduced revenue coming in creates a delta that this loan is filling in. The loan still needs to be paid back (even assuming 0% interest). That extra money needs to come from somewh…

A better way would be to suspend all debt collection and rent collection for x months. That will keep lots of small businesses alive, and employees on reduced salaries will still be able to feed their families if they don't have to worry about rent. Throw in food stamps for the unemployed and you're most of the way to keeping a nation going.

> A better way would be to suspend all debt collection and rent collection for x months.

I know this would help for people I personally know in this industry.

Dine in has been reduced almost entirely but takeaway orders hasn't deviated too much from the standard.

The reality here is that a lot of small hospitality businesses don't actually make much profit at all so it's unlikely that they'd survive too long with this forced reduced business. And it's always unhelpful to hear (in general not from you) comments like "maybe they should have saved up more earlier" or "they shouldn't be opening up a restaurant then" because a lot of times they can't work in any other industry - this is all they know.

Imagine having reduced business through no fault of your own yet you're still liable for paying the commercial rent of $1.2k per week. You can't sell the business because no one is buying. You can't sell it because you lose all the goodwill which is bad especially if you've spent any money renovating the place up to standard.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not for long. Restaurants won’t be able to make rent to do takeout.

a landlord is not going to find a new tenant for that site, so their best bet is to not charge rent or charge a lesser amount and defer it. that way when things get back to normal he has a tenant who can get back into business a lot quicker otherwise he has to find a new tenant.

Land/property prices have boomed in the UK, usually the tenant is rich and can wait for the profits, years, perhaps decades. This in part is why our high-street is empty but shop rental prices are not deflated seemingly at all; the rent is gravy, they've doubled their investments already.

How about any property left vacant for 1 month gets a windfall tax of 10% the market valuation [this is obviously not a fleshed out proposal] ... that should incentivise landlord's to act to prevent losing tenants.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#373
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Video calling is a thing... not like it’s solitary confinement. Also, grocery shelves will be full again as the stores limit per-customer amounts.

You live a very sheltered life if you think all humans need is video conferencing and stocked grocery shelves. There is a huge world of stuff that cannot be done remote. Sporting events, construction, weddings, restaurants, building maintenance, manufacturing, and millions of other stuff. Stuff that is critical to keeping our global economy happy. Healthy economy == healthy people. Ps: have any of the doomsayers spou…

Thanks a lot. My point was that you're being hyperbolic and panicky, and that doesn't help at all. Being stuck at home sucks, but it isn't as bad as you're saying. Talking with friends and family helps a lot.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.

Stop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval. Source: my ill informed opinion, same as yours. same source as yours.

This comment will not age well. I'll remind you in 14 days.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#375
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "we need to flatten the curve so that everyone gets it over 41 years!" Is this hyperbole, or is anyone actually saying 41 years? I haven't done careful math, but eyeballing it, roughly a year (give or take some months) is the longest I'd come up with to keep peak simultaneous cases under 1.5mil.

5% of cases need hospitalization for ~2-3 weeks; 2% require an ICU; 1% a ventilator. We have 96k ICU beds (and 160k ventilators) in the USA. Most constrained means we can't have more than 4.8 million sick at a given time -- but that's over 2-3 weeks, which yields ~2-3 years for 200 million people. I assume the "41 years" people are using some other constraint.

Thanks, it’s the 2-3 weeks factor I was missing (and I don’t even know if that’s optimistic I suppose).

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#376
post #226

>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure, servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be needed. Companies like Aramark that pro…

food delivery will boom. all the restaurants in the NY tri state area are closed but all are allowed to do take out and delivery so that's going to be a big thing.

Great time to own Netflix stock. I would be interested in hearing the new sign-up numbers for any of the streaming platforms.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.

Based on what data?

As a business owner I hope you are right, that this clears up in weeks not months; However it would be pretty irresponsible of me to take that line of thinking, no?

The facts appear to be supporting the 3 month shutdown, they include:

- The US Government has said, including the President, that this could last until August. Some expert think that's conservative.

- A vaccine isn't likely for 12+ months.

- Testing facilities are limited and will likely take 3-4 weeks for widespread roll-out.

- We don't fully understand the dynamics of how the virus is spread.

- Congress/Senate are readying a staggeringly large help package (800 BILLION); that relief is at least 2-3 weeks away and I would argue suggests the lock down is going to last well past 3-4 weeks (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-...).

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People w…

Maybe this data? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#379
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good. Expect to be quarantined for the next 3 months. Then you can be pleasantly surprised when it’s 2.

2 weeks tops. Calling it now. 2 months of this will result in rioting and all kinds of crazy shit. And for what? The data based in SK and Singapore doesn’t suggest this virus is worth risking compete societal collapse. Testing there is showing a >1% death rate and because of how those tests work, it is provably about a half to a full order of magnitude lower. Sorry doomsayers, you better have some good evidence to su…

You seem like you're panicking. If you need evidence for the necessity, go read literally anything about what Italy is facing. China locked down cities with 0 infections pretty completely for ~4 weeks, and they still have isolation measures going. I believe the heavily hit cities are still totally locked down. This is what it took to get numbers under control once it had spread, and because of the US' late reaction, it's what's necessary now.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.

Based on what data?

The fact that schools are currently closed in a growing number of districts for 4 weeks at minimum. That alone is going to cause wild downstream effects. There are a few reports of supply chains starting to slow down because of workers being sent home and people taking off to be with their kids.
Post reply on HN