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The state of the restaurant industry

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Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#361

Post by spookthesunset »

2019-nCoV wrote: post #349
spookthesunset wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People w…

People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?

There is so much doomsday nonsense like your post I don’t know where to start. People have lost their god damn minds on the internet. Go outside and go on a walk. If you don’t understand why a 3 month country wide lockdown would be orders of magnitude more dangerous than this virus, you need to snap yourself out of the trance you are in.

People have lost their minds around here.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#362

Post by bryanrasmussen »

sharadov wrote: post #353
bryanrasmussen wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you're home all day long one of the main spurs for going out to eat is gone, at the end of the day you're no longer too tired to make food, you're not getting home too late to make it at a good time, you don't need to save time. Thus the only spur left to wanting to order food is eating something tasty you can't make at home easily - I admit that is good but given that the delivery is also a potential virus delive…

Are you kidding me, how many people do you know who can put together a decent meal, let alone a tasty meal. Combined with the fact that people will stress-eat and stress-drink delivery food and liquor sales will experience a big-time boom.

maybe it's because I live in Denmark and my wife's family is Italian, but I guess the answer to how many people I know is essentially everyone I know (even the younger 20 year olds at my work) and the answer to am I kidding you is no.

I admit when I lived in the U.S the answer might have been less but it was probably still "lots of people", I have generally been the worst cook I know and I can still put together about a dozen decent meals.

on edit: but note that I did say the spur left was the tastiness of delivered food so actually I am confused as to are you kidding me based on inability to produce tasty food?

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#363

Post by lotsofpulp »

anthonypasq wrote: post #327
lotsofpulp wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention the resulting product is far superior than what is available at 95% of restaurants.

I mean, not really, unless you are comparing to McDonald's.

Even on the coasts, most restaurants focus on salt, sugar, and oil. I find there’s often just no spice used (not just heat).

Also, due to the low margins of the restaurant business, I assume they’re using subpar ingredients.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#364

Post by koyote »

2019-nCoV wrote: post #349
spookthesunset wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People w…

People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?

I am sure all the waiters, cooks, restaurant owners, shop owners, shop staff, cleaning crew, construction workers, gardners, pilots, cabin crew, airport staff, taxi drivers, dentists, haidressers and business operators staff for all these businesses will be more than happy to stay at home for 3+ months without pay.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#365

Post by spookthesunset »

koyote wrote: post #364
2019-nCoV wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?

I am sure all the waiters, cooks, restaurant owners, shop owners, shop staff, cleaning crew, construction workers, gardners, pilots, cabin crew, airport staff, taxi drivers, dentists, haidressers and business operators staff for all these businesses will be more than happy to stay at home for 3+ months without pay.

For sure dude. They can just play video games and order from Uber eats for all their meals! They totally won’t riot out in the streets....

(/s)

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#366

Post by vincentmarle »

zamfi wrote: post #325
rosybox wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.

This is not clear. Right now we need lockdown because: a) We have a large number of infected people (> 10,000) and have no idea who or where they are, because testing sucks. b) If exponential growth continues (and it would, because we can't isolate all the people who are sick right now ), we'll overwhelm hospital facilities and the fatality rate will hit 5% instead of BUT As soon as we clear out a), that kills b) too…

If this approach works (and it's a big if) you'll still be vulnerable as a society for any flare-ups of the virus. The only long-term solution is to build up herd-immunity and spread it out enough to 50-60% of the population until we have developed a vaccin.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#367

Post by sharadov »

bryanrasmussen wrote: post #362
sharadov wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding me, how many people do you know who can put together a decent meal, let alone a tasty meal. Combined with the fact that people will stress-eat and stress-drink delivery food and liquor sales will experience a big-time boom.

maybe it's because I live in Denmark and my wife's family is Italian, but I guess the answer to how many people I know is essentially everyone I know (even the younger 20 year olds at my work) and the answer to am I kidding you is no. I admit when I lived in the U.S the answer might have been less but it was probably still "lots of people", I have generally been the worst cook I know and I can still put together abou…

You and I probably move in different circles. I love cooking and am pretty serious about good food, so my bar must be high. But I know less than 10% people who can make good meals.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#368

Post by charwalker »

evo_9 wrote: post #236

My wife an I opened a nail and wax salon 6 months ago. Really don't know what to do, so far they haven't asked us to shutdown. Business had been steadily growing and we are about break-even. No idea how this will play-out, what if anything the building owner can do to help out, or how the federal help might work for a small business like ours. The rent and payroll are our biggest expenses naturally, we can of course…

IF you are i the US employees may be eligible for unemployment immediately even if employed with full/cut/zero hours. Not super helpful to you as the owner unless you can also apply but could make a shutdown easier on staff.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#369

Post by spookthesunset »

ericd wrote: post #351
spookthesunset wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I think too. Way easier to put a date far out there and yank it back than underestimate and have to extend it.

Good. Expect to be quarantined for the next 3 months. Then you can be pleasantly surprised when it’s 2.

2 weeks tops. Calling it now. 2 months of this will result in rioting and all kinds of crazy shit. And for what? The data based in SK and Singapore doesn’t suggest this virus is worth risking compete societal collapse. Testing there is showing a >1% death rate and because of how those tests work, it is provably about a half to a full order of magnitude lower.

Sorry doomsayers, you better have some good evidence to suggest a 2 month lockup is worth the massive damage to our society. Better also outline what “lockup” means. Is that in big cities? The whole country? The planet?

What is your exit criteria? Who will have to go out into the world to keep shelves stocked and your Uber eats meals delivered? Who is going to be manufacturing your heart medicine? Who will clean that plugged drain? Who will repair that drain unplugger persons tool when it breaks?

2 weeks tops. Perhaps slightly longer for very small isolated hotspot areas. Any more than that and shit is gonna go down.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#370

Post by charwalker »

rosybox wrote: post #187
slg wrote: post #39

The government has talked about bailouts for various industries from airlines, to cruise ships, to shale companies. But almost every sector of the US economy is going to be hit by this and I have no idea how we are going to react. Will there be a restaurant bailout? What would that even look like? It is much easier to work on bailing out a handful of airlines but how do you handle it for literally thousands of small…

The WSJ Editorial Board has suggested that the Fed create a new facility that gives very cheap loans to businesses that need them. These loans will not need to be repaid right away and should sustain any business that needs it during this period. It sounded workable. https://www.wsj.com/articles/financing-an-economic-shutdown-...

Loans may already be super cheap and expanding that option further will extend the current run but lead to a bigger crash once those loans come due given the economy continues to flat line after the pandemic ends.
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