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The state of the restaurant industry

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Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#341
post #211

Losing 30% of retirement savings likely caused a chunk of this as well. Maybe not the bulk but I’d bet it’s a factor in people pulling back on all spending.

Technically speaking, nobody should have lost 30% of their retirement savings. Young people should have much more saving to do, so it will be a smaller fraction of their overall retirement savings. Older folks should have been pivoting into less risky assets already.

Even losing 15% will cause you to cut spending.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#342
post #88

I have a friend that owns a restaurant, doesn't sell gift cards online and no idea how to do. What's the fastest way to set up a Gift Card program?

I truly hope your friend can figure out a way through this ... however isn't selling gift cards just kind of punting the problem down the road? If their customers buy gift cards now, and then return to use then in X weeks/months, wouldn't they just be working for "free" at that point (assuming all the funds from the gift cards were used to get them through the customer-less time)?

It effectively acts as an interest free loan to the business.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#343
post #205

>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure, servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be needed. Companies like Aramark that pro…

Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…

I wrote my favorite restaurants on social media asking them where I can purchase myself gift cards.

It not a lot, but if enough people do it, it could help them actually reopen.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#344
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It all depends on how long it is temporary. Current predictions are 2-3 months, which I think it is already too much time for most restaurants.

Germany's Robert Koch Institute just spoke of "up to two years" today... (Near the bottom of the page if you can read German: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki... )

That “up to two years” applies to how long it would take for 60–70% of people to get the virus if you are aiming for a “herd immunity” scenario. It doesn’t claim that the present lockdown will last two years.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#345
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think any other country would have been able to contain this outbreak?

Original GP went on "they're filthy" rant. If he had said the authoritarian state obsessed with wanting to always look good lead to failure in containing the infection and let it spread from Wuhan, making things much worse all over the world, I would've nodded in agreement.

The wet markets are filthy. Not an unspecified "they". The wet markets. No hygiene standards, live animals shitting and pissing next to slaughtered meat, no health inspection.

Trying to make this factually true statement look like bigotry is just reprehensible.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval. Source: my ill informed opinion, same as yours. same source as yours.

> Stop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval. Social upheaval against a "lockdown" becomes a moot point if people you know keep dropping dead.

How long do young healthy people, who have been put out of work by shutdowns put up with this? Some number of weeks seems workable, but until 2021?

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#347
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.

This is not clear. Right now we need lockdown because: a) We have a large number of infected people (> 10,000) and have no idea who or where they are, because testing sucks. b) If exponential growth continues (and it would, because we can't isolate all the people who are sick right now ), we'll overwhelm hospital facilities and the fatality rate will hit 5% instead of BUT As soon as we clear out a), that kills b) too…

> "we need to flatten the curve so that everyone gets it over 41 years!"

Is this hyperbole, or is anyone actually saying 41 years?

I haven't done careful math, but eyeballing it, roughly a year (give or take some months) is the longest I'd come up with to keep peak simultaneous cases under 1.5mil.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People w…

Based on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People w…

People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI You're not alone in observing the echo chamber effect. Those of us who agree with you that some skepticism of the cost/benefit of the intervention is merited have largely avoided posting on our main accounts because of the massive backlash against anything counter-panic-dogma, or our posts have been flagged/deaded with worrying rapidity. There were posts threatening _physical harm_ to individuals questioning the…

Makes you wonder if the real “virus” is a mental one? Society got infected with one hell of a meme. It is like everybody has that X-Files “I want to believe” poster on their wall when they repeat some of this doomsday stuff. We are all stuck inside all day, bouncing around with nothing better to do than read doomsday porn. And around and around that stuff goes into people’s head until you get where we are now. People…

Video calling is a thing... not like it’s solitary confinement.

Also, grocery shelves will be full again as the stores limit per-customer amounts.

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