321–330 of 591 posts
Losing 30% of retirement savings likely caused a chunk of this as well. Maybe not the bulk but I’d bet it’s a factor in people pulling back on all spending.
Technically speaking, nobody should have lost 30% of their retirement savings. Young people should have much more saving to do, so it will be a smaller fraction of their overall retirement savings. Older folks should have been pivoting into less risky assets already.
If this lasts more than two or three weeks, at least with out a crisp well articulated end game, things are going to go downhill very fast.
I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.
If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance.
If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People will go nuts and kill everybody around them.
You’ll have a situation on your hands much, much worse than this virus. Much worse.
People have lost their damn minds and stopped thinking rationally. Snap out it. Go on a damn walk. Nobody is gonna be locked down for three fucking months. If we actually are, I suggest stocking up on guns and ammo now because that will devolve into a doomsday scenario. One much worse than anything this virus can possibly dish out.
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We don’t have enough data or understanding to project anything. Many countries stupidly aren’t doing pervasive testing. Places that do have pervasive testing (some town in Italy, South Korea, and Singapore) suggest this virus is widespread and has a >1% death rate. But this data is early and subject to change. Suggesting we are going to be locked for months or years is irresponsible fear mongering at best.
A few times in my career, I have been in a meeting that I didn't want to be in. One of the meeting-runners hinted that the meeting could be shorter than scheduled. Failure to deliver on that was not well received. If you're going to say anything, you're better off overestimate how long it's going to be.
I run an online mobile ordering app for restaurants as a side project and have never seen this many sign ups in one day. I have a full time job so had to bring my gf on to help with customer support.
Interesting, I'd like to see how the indie apps compete against the big guys like Doordash and Uber Eats, especially now during this shutdown. What is your biggest bottleneck, background checks and driver license verification? Bank accounts?
Let me know if you want an extra hand from a remote worker, I used to have to do tech support/emails for my startup, too. All while having a day job so I can understand how overwhelming coming home to 77 unread emails while staring at a backlog of unresolved tickets can be.
>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure, servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be needed. Companies like Aramark that pro…
It's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.
a) We have a large number of infected people (> 10,000) and have no idea who or where they are, because testing sucks.
b) If exponential growth continues (and it would, because we can't isolate all the people who are sick right now), we'll overwhelm hospital facilities and the fatality rate will hit 5% instead of BUT
As soon as we clear out a), that kills b) too -- in South Korea they're doing effective contact tracing, testing, and isolation because they have few enough cases. Once we bend the knee of the growth curve, once we get get R0 below 1, we'll have exponential drop-off instead of growth. In 8 weeks, with few enough active cases and robust testing infrastructure, we'll be able to do what China has started doing, and what SK has been doing all along.
Of course, that's assuming we get our act together on lockdown & testing infrastructure. But if we do, we could be out of lockdown by June.
All these folks saying "we need to flatten the curve so that everyone gets it over 41 years!" are extrapolating the wrong data points...
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Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…
if you're home all day long one of the main spurs for going out to eat is gone, at the end of the day you're no longer too tired to make food, you're not getting home too late to make it at a good time, you don't need to save time. Thus the only spur left to wanting to order food is eating something tasty you can't make at home easily - I admit that is good but given that the delivery is also a potential virus delive…
I genuinely enjoy cooking, it is what I do with the extra time I would otherwise be spent commuting.
Luckily, lots of people are not like me and cannot cook if their life depended on it. I am hoping they can keep the local restaurants in business!
I like the idea of buying myself gift cards at local restaurants. Its one way to help them.
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It's cheaper and better for you, and you can cook for your own preferences once you understand the basics. It's a great time to learn!
Not to mention the resulting product is far superior than what is available at 95% of restaurants.
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Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…
Not for long. Restaurants won’t be able to make rent to do takeout.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…
Not for long. Restaurants won’t be able to make rent to do takeout.