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Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

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Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#151
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain how your job is directly related to the company's stock trading price? Not being sarcastic are something, just genuinely curious?

The stock price is determined by dicounted cash flow valuation of profit, or at least what stock traders estimate it to be. If the stock price is crashing, that means traders are predicting reduced profits. Reduced profits mean layoffs.

The stock could also be crashing because the perceived value of the asset was distorted by market conditions, and the stock index corrections have now produced a far more realistic and scary environment in which value is better understood.

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#152

As long as the money is given to folks who need and/or will spend it, it feels like this is the exact situation where the federal government steps in for stimulus. There’s no pull yourself up by your bootstraps talk right now and there shouldn’t be. I know the single parent working a couple of jobs will spend every dime they’re given in a time like this, just to survive. A yuppie like me would just park it in my savi…

How charitable, now to implement that everyone has to prove their level of income and assets before receiving aid and will unnecessarily screw people on the margins in situations you didn’t imagine up front. Stuff like that gets implemented (usually, in America) as a non-refundable tax credit meaning the poorest get nothing as well.

Just cut the check, tax the rich, and don’t make more paperwork.

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#154
post #104

Last global pandemic of most compare - the Spanish Flu, we had a society that was savings conscious. Past few decades have seen a turn towards interest rates so low that borrowing over saving has prevailed. So whilst this may help a little and more so for some, it will do nothing for many who are debt rolling from one payday until another. That without intervention upon loans and debt repayments over this period will…

> Last global pandemic of most compare - the Spanish Flu, we had a society that was savings conscious.

Also a society that was emerging from WWI. The mindset was different.

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#155
post #98
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mostly agree; the only caveat I'd give is that it's tough to say how much longer any of us are going to be yuppies right now; I work for one of the many big megacorporations whose stock is tanking right now. If the stock doesn't pick up soonish, there's a non-zero probability of me being laid off. While I'm not that worried (I've been able to find work in bad economies in the past), I also do feel a bit of paranoia…

Why? The price of the stocks does not affect company in any way. If the company sales are going down or clients stop coming this is an issue, stock value is important only for those who hold/speculate using them. You company has already got the money from selling stocks, nobody is going to take them away.

It seems they only share a name? In some stores people are buying more than ever. But stocks are down?

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#156
post #110

The media/political response is a giant hoax. Read the source paper from the CDC our corporate and political leaders are using to justify the panic: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6601a1.htm and appendix 5 https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/44314 From the evidence section of appendix 5: "Mandatory quarantine delayed the peak of the pandemic, but when cost was taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an…

Of course you're some newly created sock-puppet account too afraid to post under your real handle. COVID-19 will absolutely cause the death of millions in the US alone if proper steps aren't taken to reduce R0. If not from the disease itself, then from hospitals being completely overloaded. Edit: Let's be real: lockdown/isolation is going to have to persist for at least a month or more to have a real chance of preven…

Not a sock-puppet.

Where's the evidence isolations will flatten the curve and not just cause another spike of cases after isolation ends?

Covid-19 isn't going to die out after a few weeks or months.

Deaths are coming from ages 70+ with severe pre-existing conditions during non-peak hospital conditions. This is normal and nothing to panic about.

Also, do R0 values of a virus change dramatically? I thought they were set based the number of non-vaccinated people who get infected...

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#157
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mostly agree; the only caveat I'd give is that it's tough to say how much longer any of us are going to be yuppies right now; I work for one of the many big megacorporations whose stock is tanking right now. If the stock doesn't pick up soonish, there's a non-zero probability of me being laid off. While I'm not that worried (I've been able to find work in bad economies in the past), I also do feel a bit of paranoia…

Can you explain how your job is directly related to the company's stock trading price? Not being sarcastic are something, just genuinely curious?

Two important points worth making here.

First, huge stock market panics are fear-driven. Partly they're responses to fear, partly they create more of it.

When fear sets in, people get nervous. First-order, that means more concern about protection, downside risk, and survival. In business, that means, how much cash is in the bank? Can we pay our bills to employees/landlords/utilities? Since it's harder to wiggle out from long-term contractual commitments (debt service, leases), employees are often but not always the first to go, simply because they CAN be let go. Not ideal, but it happens. Additionally, hiring slows and since some level of frictional unemployment (google it) is bound to exist, those people won't be as easily re-absorbed into new jobs.

Second point: executives, salespeople, and others "at the edges" are driven by market forces. Interior decision-making, especially at large businesses and far from top management, isn't driven by external market forces to any real extent. A better model I just read in the economist explained it as companies being little miniature command economies (dictatorships), mediated by market forces in their interactions with the outside world. A few examples that come to mind: (a) wages aren't typically adjusted internally when salaries rise externally, (b) most funding decisions are made by management, not external banks/stock market. So probably wise to assume, unless sufficient evidence to the contrary, that mid-level decision making in companies won't be market-driven, it will be done by (potentially more efficient) command mechanisms. A manager tells you to do something and you do it, there isn't some auction mechanism held where people bid on tasks. We do it that way because it's more efficient.

EDIT: The article in question (very good IMO, talks about how uber is creating a semi-centrally planned, non-market driven ride economy: https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2019/12/18/can-...)

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#158
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under normal circumstances, we could make it opt-in. This was a stipulation of Andrew Yang's UBI policy. It could be argued that under current circumstances, creating an opt-in mechanism might increase administrative complexity. That said, I imagine you still need a simple mechanism to figure out eligibility. Do non-citizens qualify? Permanent residents? Short-term visitors? International students? Only people with S…

"Opt-in" systems have disappointing levels of people who need the benefit but are too proud or scared to claim. Where possible avoid this problem and give the benefit to absolutely everybody. The administration is simpler, it will get to all those who need it, and if you become concerned Bill Gates is getting too much free childcare or whatever, feel free to increase his taxes accordingly.

> "Opt-in" systems have disappointing levels of people who need the benefit but are too proud or scared to claim.

Is there any source to this claim when it specifically comes to giving people money for opting in for something?

Using some nordic countries as example, many of them help people by giving them money each month in order to survive. These people are not too proud or scared to claim free money when they need it. My guess is that people from the US will act similarly.

Re: Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress

#160
post #22
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think housing market in USA seriously needs a healthy correction to make housing available to masses again

If only the problem weren't self-reinforcing where existing homeowners have the majority of their net worth tied to their home and thus double down on fighting any policy that would reduce home values.

> existing homeowners have the majority of their net worth tied to their home

Then they should sell it while they can!

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