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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#171

Post by joachim4 »

lqet wrote: post #152
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> dry eyes Also no confirmed case here, but I attended a conference and later got an email that one participant tested positive. Since a few days, I also have dry eyes (thought it was because of dry heating air in our apartment first, but it didn't go away for days as it normally does, not even yesterday when we did not had the heating on because of the warm weather), dry cough and I am a little tired. 2 days ago I h…

I have similar symptoms to yours. I live in Paris and the number of cases here are exploding, but so far for me the mains symptoms are an high temperature, general tiredness and a sore throat/ dry eyes. So far so good, but each day passing I feel a bit more tired. The doctor advised me to take paracetamol every 4 hours, and to stay inside. Also here in France, they are sending SMS to any suspected case with advices and to know if the symptoms are evolving towards the worse case, which is the difficulty to breath.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#172

Post by Gibbon1 »

khazhoux wrote: post #151
md224 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

I expect an interesting side effect of all this is a reassessment of our tolerance for the "usual" influenza death rate. It's shockingly high. Could we save thousands of lives a year by people stopping going to work when they're sick, not going to grocery store when they're sick, etc?

I think that too. Basically the long long history of people of mostly old people checking out due to flu has normalized something terrible. As many people dying of flu as auto accidents.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#173

Post by piokoch »

nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

In Italy more than 300 people die every day, the overall mortality rate is between 3% and 8% this is 10 times more than 0.4%. Even if 50%-75% are asymptomatic, there is still large percentage of critical cases that need ICU treatment and currently we are not prepared for it.

For me the title should be 25% of cases require treatment in hospital and we are not able to put 25% of population into hospitals, so, very likely 3%-8% will have to die (3% - WHO estimate, 8% - real numbers we have for now).

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#174

Post by jansan »

he_is_legend wrote: post #117
GreaterFool wrote: post #115

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

There is a huge shortage of masks in the west - even hospitals are running out.

And that is the only reason for the claim that masks are useless. Of course they are not useless, Chinese aren't idiots.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#175

Post by underlines »

jonplackett wrote: post #155
Onanymous wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active ca…

I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries. ( http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)

do you respect the time delay when calculating Case Fatality Rate?

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#176

Post by maigret »

nordsieck wrote: post #59
ta999999171 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why do we keep accepting these conditions?

> So why do we keep accepting these conditions? Probably because the negative repercussions of that behavior are typically not very severe.

They actually cost a lot of money to businesses, but no one cares to track to show the ugly truth. Europe has a lot of data showing that going to work sick ends up costing much more than staying home, thus this is a irresponsible attitude - given you keep getting your pay of course.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#177

Post by imtringued »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #55
dnautics wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that matters in the end is total population mortality rate.

That is a bad metric. The death rate could be really bad yet the overall death rate would still not change very much.

If I am the only person on the planet with a 100% deadly disease why should I force everyone else to suffer because of me?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#178

Post by majewsky »

lqet wrote: post #152
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> dry eyes Also no confirmed case here, but I attended a conference and later got an email that one participant tested positive. Since a few days, I also have dry eyes (thought it was because of dry heating air in our apartment first, but it didn't go away for days as it normally does, not even yesterday when we did not had the heating on because of the warm weather), dry cough and I am a little tired. 2 days ago I h…

Dry cough and fever are the most common symptoms of Covid. Given that you display both, staying at home is definitely the correct behavior. Also get on the phone with your GP or the respective coronavirus hotline for your country to inquire about the next steps.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#179

Post by dempseye »

lqet wrote: post #152
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> dry eyes Also no confirmed case here, but I attended a conference and later got an email that one participant tested positive. Since a few days, I also have dry eyes (thought it was because of dry heating air in our apartment first, but it didn't go away for days as it normally does, not even yesterday when we did not had the heating on because of the warm weather), dry cough and I am a little tired. 2 days ago I h…

The dry eyes thing is crazy.

I got Lasik about two years ago and had a period of dry eyes afterwards, which abated in time. I got them again about a week ago. I also got an intermittent fever and a dry cough. The fever wasn't severe and only hit me for a short period over several days. The cough, which is still present, is like a smoker's cough and is accompanied by a feeling of reduced lung capacity.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#180

Post by TeMPOraL »

trymas wrote: post #162
TeMPOraL wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As tech workers, we're particularly privileged. Ask your local grocery store clerk, or the person that handles your paperwork in the bank. I too am from a highly-developed (relative to the US) European country. It's all nice on paper. But in practice, a lot of these legal protections are commonly evaded (and government attempts at fixing it get badmouthed by a population considering itself "not exploited proletariat,…

I agree that everybody who can work remotely is a bit privileged compared to someone who cannot, and in general tech employers are richer and more liberal. As I said in my reply above, some employers or employees need a cultural shift. Either employers put pressure on employees to not get sick leave (which is illegal and unethical), or as you say some employees think that they are "temporarily embarrassed millionaire…

I'm not talking about getting a sick note rejected. I'm asking, would you realistically go and get a sick note for a runny noise and feeling generally unwell? Would you feel secure at your job if you did that 20 times a year?
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