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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#141

Post by marvin »

Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62
Ozzie_osman wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really, really hope so. My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

This is not a dud, and it will prime whole generations in different countries to have respect for new diseases. If the United States just delays a little longer in its response, it will also be on the list of those countries. Don't know if one should count that as a success or not.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#142

Post by easytiger »

Jedd wrote: post #139
easytiger wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This doesn't add up either -- immunity per individual is expected to last 'only a few months', There is no evidence either way. Even if it is transient it will be enough for it to die down

There's some very strong indicators that immunity will be ephemeral. It's possible the R naught will drop below the currently assessed 2.2 over time, but there's no evidence for that -- and if both these things stay as expected, it won't be transient enough to 'die down' naturally.

Unfortunately until we get an antigen test, we will not know for sure. But there is no reason to believe at this point that it isn't anything other than a standard immune response.

It would extremely rare that it wasn't

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#143

Post by chvid »

md224 wrote: post #93
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

This is an important question and it needs to be answered.

There needs to be systematic sampling of the whole population so the number of infected can be correctly measured and the policies should be based on that.

This is also what WHO is saying.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#144

Post by thinkingemote »

lovecg wrote: post #38
abiogenesis wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best evolutionary strategy for a virus is to not cause any disease at all.

Better still, it would make the host feel unusually social.

There is a paper that showed that the flu virus makes people more socialable.

It was done with students who took flu vaccine. They found people socialised more after they had the vaccine (and thus, were a little bit infected) compared to before.

A literature review looked at the study and came up with the negative explanation - that people felt more secure or relaxed after getting the vaccine as they felt safer. Or were more nervous about needles before.

Ancedote:

I think I have covid-19 and the days before symptoms I felt unusually anxious to get outside and amongst fellow humans. I'm usually an introvert and stay inside mostly so it was notable.

Suggestion:

Online interview people with symptoms now to collect data on peoples behaviour in the days before symptoms showed, when they were infected but not showing, compared to 2 weeks before.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#145

Post by trymas »

uluyol wrote: post #44
trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

Unfortunately this is not an option for many people. I don't disagree with the sentiment - avoiding the spread of disease is good - but often the reward systems in place don't optimize for the best global outcomes.

Where are you from? Where I live - I think I am even motivated to get sick leave. If I feel ill, I can get sick leave, with no time limits I am aware of [0], and as a reward I will get 80% [1] of my salary back for essentially doing nothing. IMHO it's a win/win. I will get well and be productive as soon as possible [2]. If it's a viral illness - my employer would be happy that I will not make dozens of other people ill.

[0] I have not read the law, but I have never heard of anyone reaching that limit. You can stay ill for months and still be compensated. Of course after some long time, you'll probably be moved from sick leave to some kind of disability program, which sucks, but we are not talking about disabilities.

[1] There's a cap for sick leave compensation, but unless you are earning _a lot_ it should be enough.

[2] Personal anecdata, but personally common cold takes couple of days of rest to go away, if I try to be tough and won't rest - it may take couple of weeks before I feel well again. Better couple of days of 0 productivity, than couple of weeks of work simulation.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#146

Post by trymas »

blahedo wrote: post #45
trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

I mean, sure, if you have sick leave. The above comment is perhaps aspirational, but otherwise it is woefully ignorant of the sad, sad state of US healthcare for most of its residents.

> I mean, sure, if you have sick leave.

Where do you live that sick leave does not exist?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#147

Post by Onanymous »

lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases

I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active cases. But from those only ~2% serious. There may be different reasons for such a discrepancy but I tend to agree with your conclusion that we have a lot of asymptomatic cases around, higher then estimated R0 and lower then estimated fatality.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#148

Post by Symbiote »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #77
blahedo wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, sure, if you have sick leave. The above comment is perhaps aspirational, but otherwise it is woefully ignorant of the sad, sad state of US healthcare for most of its residents.

It's a problem everywhere. Sick leave is something you take when you have high fever or need surgery, not when you start coughing. Reasons include: there's only so much sick leave you can take, employers expect sick leave to be extremely rare and will "phase you out" if it isn't, getting a sick leave involves a visit to a doctor - which, like any visit to a healthcare facility processing sick people - comes with a ri…

> It's a problem everywhere. Sick leave is something you take when you have high fever or need surgery, not when you start coughing

Do you be any experience outside the USA? Your description doesn't fit my experience in the UK and Denmark, or my general understanding of the rest of Europe.

Europe will need to consider smaller changes — there are more gig economy workers than ever before, different countries have taken different approaches to closing schools etc — but I think the fundamentals are OK.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#149

Post by TeMPOraL »

ElFitz wrote: post #94
TeMPOraL wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a problem everywhere. Sick leave is something you take when you have high fever or need surgery, not when you start coughing. Reasons include: there's only so much sick leave you can take, employers expect sick leave to be extremely rare and will "phase you out" if it isn't, getting a sick leave involves a visit to a doctor - which, like any visit to a healthcare facility processing sick people - comes with a ri…

> getting a sick leave involves a visit to a doctor - which, like any visit to a healthcare facility processing sick people Remote doctor visits are starting to become a thing, now! Still don't know how they'll check our temperature, or issue us the sick leave paperwork. But hey! It's a start!

It's a huge opportunity and I hope it'll become popular everywhere.

Like e.g. someone in my family has been noticing a rash on their hands recently and was getting worried. There's no way in hell I'll let them go visit a doctor now, and this kind of consultation is something perfectly suited for doing it over the Internet.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#150

Post by nnlsoccer »

j-pb wrote: post #104
md224 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

However, now hospitals have to contend with both the flu AND COVID-19
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