50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic • Hacker News Board

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#51

Post by jamesrcole » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:33 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #35

jamesrcole wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CFR, whatever it is, isn’t the most significant detail. What is “terrifying” is its high contagiousness combined with its high hospitalisation and ICU rates.

But, like CFR, we don’t know how high the rates are if we have no idea how many people have or had it. Here’s a few first hand accounts of what the illness was like. These folks aren’t even that young and they describe it as being quite mild: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamo... https://www.adn.com/opinions/national-opinions/2020/03/01/i-... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/don-t-panic-say…

Whatever they are, they’re high enough to be causing major problems for hospital systems in places like Italy. They seem high enough that many countries desperately need to slow the spread of the virus or they will face dire consequences.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#52

Post by nostromo » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:34 AM UTC

wahern wrote: post #48

nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

I don't see in that link where it shows the CFR in the U.S. changing at all, let alone dramatically. Here's a paper from 2013 that surveyed CFR reports for H1N1: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ After a long discussion about the varying definitions of the numerator and denominator, they had this to say: > Given that estimates of the infection fatality risk are unlikely to be available early enoug…

That report was from summer 2009, so it was written during the outbreak. Note the early CFR from WHO was 0.4% for the US and over 1% for Mexico.

Later in the year it was found to be http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8406723.stm

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#53

Post by ta999999171 » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:35 AM UTC

uluyol wrote: post #44

trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

Unfortunately this is not an option for many people. I don't disagree with the sentiment - avoiding the spread of disease is good - but often the reward systems in place don't optimize for the best global outcomes.

So why do we keep accepting these conditions?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#54

Post by ncallaway » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:37 AM UTC

username90 wrote: post #12

"Everyone we found to have Covid-19 had serious symptoms, so we don't want to waste money testing you if you don't!" I feel this is a trillion dollar mistake, testing more aggressively like South Korea means that you don't have to deploy the army and quarantine people. I had mild symptoms and they refused to test me, what am I to do? Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? I could work from home, but…

I'm not sure if you're quoting something or paraphrasing a position you disagree with.

If it's a paraphrase, I'm not so sure it's a fair one.

In the United States, for example, we are urging people not to be tested unless they have severe symptoms. The reason for that is not to save money, but it's for a lack of testing capacity. As a policy we would much prefer to be testing even the mild suspected cases. But we don't (currently) have the testing capacity to do so.

So I think the lack of testing of mild cases (at least in the United States, and I suspect in other countries) is more a reflection of our rationing priorities than it is a reflection of our spending priorities.

If the testing capacity becomes unconstrained and we (or other countries) still fail to test mild cases.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#55

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:39 AM UTC

dnautics wrote: post #41

alexanderhorl wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe in the end the CFR will be the same as the regular flu.

The only thing that matters in the end is total population mortality rate.

That is a bad metric. The death rate could be really bad yet the overall death rate would still not change very much.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#56

Post by lazzlazzlazz » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:42 AM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #23

DeonPenny wrote: post #9

We've known this for a while. Everyone will get it. You might have it now. Nothing will happen. Still, quarantine for a while because you'll give it to an older person or kid. This isn't about a 20-something year old getting sick. Let your anti-bodies make yourself non-contagious. We are all kindergartens and this is chickenpox basically.

That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdown for months at some point soon.

Any chance you could link to those models? I searched around and couldn't find them.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#57

Post by taneq » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:42 AM UTC

IIAOPSW wrote: post #14

jader201 wrote: post #4

In case this thread doesn’t gain momentum, some more (potentially interesting) discussion on Reddit [1]. Particularly this post [2]: > I wonder if they plan to follow up and monitor... From the Diamond Princess they initially found 50% of people had no symptoms. However upon following them over the course of weeks that dropped down to about 18%. Due to the long incubation period it can take some time to determine if…

On an unrelated note, I just noticed this entire time I've been reading "asymptomatic" as "asymptotic". I thought it was cases that happen in the limit as severity goes to zero.

Some news services have referred to asymptotic spread but it's just hyperbole.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#58

Post by rixed » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:44 AM UTC

uluyol wrote: post #44

trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

Unfortunately this is not an option for many people. I don't disagree with the sentiment - avoiding the spread of disease is good - but often the reward systems in place don't optimize for the best global outcomes.

Luckily we are born with "judgment" for all these cases were instincts or rewards do not point in the right direction. According to some, that's literally the reason d'etre of consciousness. I wish it worked better and I were not confined home right now.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#59

Post by nordsieck » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:44 AM UTC

ta999999171 wrote: post #53

uluyol wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately this is not an option for many people. I don't disagree with the sentiment - avoiding the spread of disease is good - but often the reward systems in place don't optimize for the best global outcomes.

So why do we keep accepting these conditions?

> So why do we keep accepting these conditions?

Probably because the negative repercussions of that behavior are typically not very severe.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#60

Post by taneq » Tue, Mar 17, 2020, 6:45 AM UTC

username90 wrote: post #12

"Everyone we found to have Covid-19 had serious symptoms, so we don't want to waste money testing you if you don't!" I feel this is a trillion dollar mistake, testing more aggressively like South Korea means that you don't have to deploy the army and quarantine people. I had mild symptoms and they refused to test me, what am I to do? Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? I could work from home, but…

How have South Korea's numbers meshed with this study? They've been testing very aggressively, surely if there was a huge asymptomatic population it would show up in their testing as well as Italy's?