471–480 of 499 posts
Is there a risk of a compounding factor with the current level of corporate debt?
Today, Boeing lost its credit ratings, and is begging Washington for bailouts. Zero interest rates don't help much.
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The person described in that Vox article - upper respiratory symptoms, no direct contact with someone with confirmed Covid-19 - wouldn't meet the criteria for testing anywhere that I know of off-hand. Certainly not in the UK or Australia, probably not in South Korea (though they allow people who don't qualify to buy testing out of pocket), not in a whole bunch of EU states, and Italy has much bigger things to worry a…
You can't have contact with someone with a confirmed case of Covid-19 if nobody is being tested for Covid-19.
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Two points. 1. Today's drop is sort of misleading because it followed an irrational (IMO) low volume rally on Friday. We're still roughly flat from last week. 2. A recession is pretty much what we're ASKING for in order to stop the virus. People need to stay away from one another. So if it's not online, the business should be closed. 3. (bonus point) Unlike systemic recessions (like 2008), this one is purely external…
The problem is that the externally driven factor can cause systemic issues. Having 25% retail & restaurant sales for a year will wipe out savings for a significant portion of the world. Most people will be fearful of spending for a long, long while.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-makes-airlines-c...
I'll be curious how this affects package delivery, personally. A lot of 2-day shipping flies on those passenger planes. If anything shipping volume will be up but there will be fewer planes to put it on.
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“and that IRR includes crashes like these.” No it doesn’t.
Could you please substantiate your claims? This is what I mean and what I do, by always allocating the same amount of savings per year, in good or bad times [1]. You can see how in 2008 such portfolio had a drawdown of more than -50%. Despite that, it performed well above the 8% IRR I mentioned. Another interesting data point, by investing lump sums of money at the very peak of every market cycle, immediately followe…
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so, only a fraction will be infected? What's your evidence for that assumption? Or it's burnt out in Wuhan? How can Italy have like the same fatality number for _a lot_ less people? Basically we don't know and we've been following experts claiming "it's a flu" for about 3 months. Then people started dying in Wuhan, Iran, Italy? Don't you think that we should maybe try something different now?
For the death rate to rise, a lot of people have to get infected and die. Keep in mind there are a lot of deaths from everything else, so for the corona virus to bring that overall death rate number up in any meaningful way, it would have to be huge.
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> Goldman Sachs already said they expect a further drop of 20%. Of course, this is just the beginning. In November, Goldman Sachs was calling for 3.5% Global GDP growth. They are guessing, like the rest of us.
They would have likely been right if not for Covid 19. It's not just guessing.
The swings, and combined with high leverage positions, can wipe out firms.
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I have never thought about all-out selling during this. In fact I'm buying more with each dip. I feel that securities are a bargain right now. With select selling I'll also be taking advantage of tax loss harvesting for years to come.
Can you explain like I'm five how you plan to perform this tax loss harvesting for years to come?
When you sell a stock for less than you bought it (like if you sell something right now that you bought less than 3 years ago) you can subtract that from your capital gains taxes. This works even when you turn around an immediately buy something similar (but not the same, you'll have to wait a month to buy the same thing back).
There is a limit to the amount of tax losses you can claim for a given year, but you can claim the rest of your losses in the years to come.
I'm not sure if you'll actually come out ahead, since everything you buy today will have a lower cost basis and thus will increase your capital gains taxes in the future.
For now, wait and see if I just invoked Cunningham's Law. :)
Banks are our friends, the government is like our dad, the media is like our mom, let's hug them and meet the brave new world!!!
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Having been roughly in your position back during the 2008 dump... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=318595 Don't forget, the market can drop 20% a day for awhile. Plenty of smart folks are sitting on the sidelines with cash, but time will tell if this is the trigger for a much larger longer-term 2020 deleveraging. Markets aren't even where they were pre-Trump election yet, so this 30% haircut from the top isn't ev…
FWIW, I was ballsier back in 2008 and bought WAMU on the way down. It's exciting to watch your investment go all the way down to 0 :/
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I wouldn't underestimate the effectiveness and ability to respond of highly developed (and small) states like Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan. They have very good control of their borders and the (medical) resources to act in case of trouble. Not only that but I think they have learned a few lessons after the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. Anecdotal, but while in Hong Kong (2014) there were a few things that stood out: - th…
Western cities are extremely disgusting and dirty compared to Singapore, Tokyo or Taipeh. The moment I step out of a train arriving at central station it smells like piss and a bunch of drunk homeless people perform a spitting contest.