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What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

theatlantic.com

11–20 of 474 posts

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#11

I don't see how a universal basic income could be sustainable in any way. You either have debt hyperinflation, or you have taxes high enough that the universal basic income is meaningless.

I think some are advocating for a value added tax with certain categorical exemptions. My limited understanding is this would make necessity purchases more secure while making discretionary “luxury” purchases more expensive

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#12

I don't see how a universal basic income could be sustainable in any way. You either have debt hyperinflation, or you have taxes high enough that the universal basic income is meaningless.

"you have taxes high enough that the universal basic income is meaningless."

Not true. You should read the UBI policy proposal that Yang created for his POTUS run. You can find them here:

- https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-freedom-dividend-faq/ - https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#13
post #3

The interview here is compelling. Yang's book is even more compelling. But what Yang doesn't do here or in his book is make a powerful case to fiscal conservative spelling out just how universal income will avoid demolishing the economy through inflation. Until this happens, UBI is going nowhere. Although COVID-19 is on everyone's minds right now, it wasn't too long ago that Venezuela, its hyperinflation, and empty s…

Inflation is a non-issue. Economic growth has largely been constrained by demand, not supply. And the modern economy is saturated with replacement goods. If the demand for milk goes up, I can switch to soy milk. If soy milk goes up, I can switch to Almond. And if all of them go up, I just drink water. Once most basic needs are met, inflation looses its power with a few exceptions. The financialization of our economy has resulted in crazy high house prices, education, and to some degree health care. And that was driven by excessive monetary stimulus. Giving working class folks an extra $1k a month is not going to cause houses to go up by $1M. But giving speculators access to absurdly low interest rates will.

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#14
post #2

I'm not sure there's a "what if" at all, more like a "when will". At some point, a UBI will become a necessity. The most likely other options are a dystopian nightmare or a complete overhaul of our basic economic principles (i.e. a post-scarcity Star Trek-esque society)

For the most part I agree, but the important fact is that that point might not be now. Just because you might know the end point, doesn't mean you can skip the steps in between or try to get there too quickly. That can lead to disaster as you'll probably not have the right conditions or supporting structures in place.

Our current pandemic and the economic consequences certainly will make more people open to UBI. Once the recovery starts, look for businesses to invest heavily in automation so they're not caught in a labor crunch again when their human labor get sick, quarantined, or ineffective due to social distancing. This may cause a permanent shift in labor demand that never again comes close to matching the labor supply. Or maybe it'll end up like other revolutions with new currently unknown jobs opening up over time.

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#16
post #9

We don't have to entirely speculate, we can look at existing evidence. Australia has the most liberal welfare in the world. Anyone over 18 can get $984 per month, and up to another $242 in rent assistance. [1] It has nothing to do with your previous employment history, or being fired, or anything like that. In fact, you can get it if you've never had a job in your life. You need to be "actively looking for work" whic…

Good post. Yang provides additional answers in the FAQ he prepared for his POTUS run:

- https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-freedom-dividend-faq/

Aside from COVID-19, we have the 4th industrial revolution in progress now. Just take a look at these truck driver's faces once they realize just how far self driving trucks are:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iaKHeCKcq4

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#17
post #9

We don't have to entirely speculate, we can look at existing evidence. Australia has the most liberal welfare in the world. Anyone over 18 can get $984 per month, and up to another $242 in rent assistance. [1] It has nothing to do with your previous employment history, or being fired, or anything like that. In fact, you can get it if you've never had a job in your life. You need to be "actively looking for work" whic…

OK. Then why not any of those places become the innovation engine of the world? I heard people would become more creative and innovative under those circumstances.

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#18
post #3

The interview here is compelling. Yang's book is even more compelling. But what Yang doesn't do here or in his book is make a powerful case to fiscal conservative spelling out just how universal income will avoid demolishing the economy through inflation. Until this happens, UBI is going nowhere. Although COVID-19 is on everyone's minds right now, it wasn't too long ago that Venezuela, its hyperinflation, and empty s…

Inflation is a non-issue. Economic growth has largely been constrained by demand, not supply. And the modern economy is saturated with replacement goods. If the demand for milk goes up, I can switch to soy milk. If soy milk goes up, I can switch to Almond. And if all of them go up, I just drink water. Once most basic needs are met, inflation looses its power with a few exceptions. The financialization of our economy…

> If the demand for milk goes up, I can switch to soy milk. If soy milk goes up, I can switch to Almond. And if all of them go up, I just drink water.

I don't understand how this example describes a situation where inflation is a non-issue. I used to be able to afford to drink milk; now, due to inflation, I can only afford to drink water. That sounds like inflation. What am I missing from this example?

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the most part I agree, but the important fact is that that point might not be now. Just because you might know the end point, doesn't mean you can skip the steps in between or try to get there too quickly. That can lead to disaster as you'll probably not have the right conditions or supporting structures in place.

Our current pandemic and the economic consequences certainly will make more people open to UBI. Once the recovery starts, look for businesses to invest heavily in automation so they're not caught in a labor crunch again when their human labor get sick, quarantined, or ineffective due to social distancing. This may cause a permanent shift in labor demand that never again comes close to matching the labor supply. Or ma…

Check out the "Future of Work" where they cover the top 5 most popular jobs and how they are in danger. The self driving trucks shock the human truck drivers in the diner.

Makes me sad to see their faces when they realize just how far along and how good the self driving trucks have become:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iaKHeCKcq4

UBI will become a necessity because the alternative will not be pretty.

Re: What If Andrew Yang Was Right?

#20
post #3

The interview here is compelling. Yang's book is even more compelling. But what Yang doesn't do here or in his book is make a powerful case to fiscal conservative spelling out just how universal income will avoid demolishing the economy through inflation. Until this happens, UBI is going nowhere. Although COVID-19 is on everyone's minds right now, it wasn't too long ago that Venezuela, its hyperinflation, and empty s…

I’m so confused why this inflation argument keeps popping up.

If you’re paying for the Ubi with taxes then there’s no inflation. Net money supply hasn’t changed (0).

If you pay for ubi by printing money then yes, inflation would be a problem. But no one has suggested that.

(0) I’m willing to entertain an argument about the velocity of money increasing from ubi but I really doubt it would be too significant.

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