Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash • Hacker News Board

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#321

Post by xwdv » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:49 PM UTC

akvadrako wrote: post #306

coliveira wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect, the market moves on expectation, anyone that has traded the market knows this. If expectations are terrible, the market will tumble, it doesn't matter what is happening right now.

I am only talking about one thing - the market going up or down. That’s the entire reality. Expectations contribute to that, making them part of reality.

Forecasting that the market will drop 60% has a way of making that an expectation if enough people believe it, and then it happens, and the prediction comes true.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#322

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:50 PM UTC

airstrike wrote: post #311

lancewiggs wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P500, the best general index, closed at 2386 today. It's risen over 300% since the last crash, the GFC in 2007. It's been an extraordinarily lengthy bull run, and well overdue fo a crash. Before the GFC the index was 1550, and after it was ~760 (~50% drop) At the peak of the dotcom boom it was generally under 1500. In 2002 after that crash it was 800. (45% drop) The recent peak was ~3380. A 50% drop is ~1700, w…

> well overdue for a crash. This is not how markets work.

[deleted]

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#323

Post by every » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:51 PM UTC

I'll just sit here on my municipal bonds, thanks...

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#324

Post by imcoconut » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:51 PM UTC

mschaef wrote: post #206

hitpointdrew wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is opposite of what you should do. You would just be locking in losses (or greatly reduced profits). As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. Or better yet, go on buying spree and get cheap stocks.

> As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. What's 'a few years' mean to you? The Nikkei hit its high of 40K around 1989-89 and hasn't traded above 80% of that in the 30 years since.

Their population demographics are different from ours.

We will continue to provide workers and consumers over the coming decades - economy-wide demand will return once the crononavirus threat subsides.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#325

Post by neuronic » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:52 PM UTC

samsonradu wrote: post #295

Reedx wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but why don't you think the markets will bounce back once we're on the other side of this? Have underlying fundamentals changed longer term? South Korea, China, Singapore are encouraging and seeing a return back to (almost) normal life. Granted, we're not dealing with this nearly as effectively and there may be a 2nd wave to come. But at this point they seem to make the case for optimism.

I wouldn't underestimate the effectiveness and ability to respond of highly developed (and small) states like Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan. They have very good control of their borders and the (medical) resources to act in case of trouble. Not only that but I think they have learned a few lessons after the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. Anecdotal, but while in Hong Kong (2014) there were a few things that stood out: - th…

Western cities are extremely disgusting and dirty compared to Singapore, Tokyo or Taipeh.

The moment I step out of a train arriving at central station it smells like piss and a bunch of drunk homeless people perform a spitting contest.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#326

Post by willyt » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:53 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #277

vngzs wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US lags just about every developed country on testing for Covid-19 disease.[0] ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response[1] [0]: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co... [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

The person described in that Vox article - upper respiratory symptoms, no direct contact with someone with confirmed Covid-19 - wouldn't meet the criteria for testing anywhere that I know of off-hand. Certainly not in the UK or Australia, probably not in South Korea (though they allow people who don't qualify to buy testing out of pocket), not in a whole bunch of EU states, and Italy has much bigger things to worry a…

You are wrong about South Korea. Their testing has been incredibly effective from the beginning, patient 31 in South Korea had no known contact and was told to take a CV test by her doctors, but didn't take the advice until a 2 days later. https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#327

Post by saiya-jin » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:53 PM UTC

Super beginner question - as somebody holding some Swiss cash on top of some basic reserve, I understand now it would be too risky to enter any stock/other market. I am a pessimist in expectations what will happen - rather gloomy state of affairs for next year or so, no fancy vaccine/quick tests etc.

Here is the question - what investment vehicle, if any, would you consider for looking into when wanting to presumably enter this situation in say 4-5 months? Ideally say some medium term returns, not benefit after 30 years.

Sorry for possibly annoying question to the experts, just looking into some guidance

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#328

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:55 PM UTC

dictatorsunion wrote: post #320

rnd33 wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are all bear markets the same? If there's a clear signal when to start buying why isn't everyone doing it? To me technical analysis of the stock market is the modern equivalent of a shaman predicting next year's harvest. It sounds very convincing but there's little scientific evidence that it can predict anything accurately.

It's as though you think everyone is rational. If they are they should be selling, but no, they are buying.

[deleted]

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#329

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:56 PM UTC

rnd33 wrote: post #317

dictatorsunion wrote: post #290

I don't understand why people are catching a falling knife. It is as though they have never been in bear markets before. Understand the market psychology and don't waste your money. I have friends who DCA-ed and regret because it took them years just to breakeven. In a standard fear cycle (Google it), we are only at the middle stage between denial and fear. There is an acceleration downwards that we have not experien…

Are all bear markets the same? If there's a clear signal when to start buying why isn't everyone doing it? To me technical analysis of the stock market is the modern equivalent of a shaman predicting next year's harvest. It sounds very convincing but there's little scientific evidence that it can predict anything accurately.

[deleted]

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#330

Post by AnimalMuppet » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 10:57 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #279

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I said I wouldn't be surprised, not I think they will. Fair enough. > I think the fed can bail them out. I also think that requires printing money so inflation will be high. If things go that way, I don't think it has to result in inflation. The thing is that, when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking). If the Fed prints exactly the right amount of money to counterbalance t…

> when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking) The money doesn't disappear when the bank collapses. It disappears if the loans that defaulted and caused the bank to collapse are written off instead of being assumed by some other party. If the borrower's inability to pay is only temporary, the loan probably won't be written off; it will just be restructured, and the money won't…

OK. But those loan defaults are what lettergram feared would cause the banks to collapse. So they're not independent. The bank can collapse from other reasons, and loans can default without the bank collapsing, but in the scenario lettergram was talking about, loan defaults cause the bank failures.

So, you're right, but I think my overall point still stands.