Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash • Hacker News Board

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#211

Post by leetcrew » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

bobbylarrybobby wrote: post #100

hitpointdrew wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is opposite of what you should do. You would just be locking in losses (or greatly reduced profits). As long as you are reasonably sure you can hold your stocks for a few years then just hold on to them. Or better yet, go on buying spree and get cheap stocks.

If you think prices will fall, sell now and then buy back in after they’ve fallen

this is much riskier than just holding. stock prices are about expectations, not necessarily reality. for all we know, everything might spike back up to January 2020 prices the second there's an inflection point in the new infection rate, and you could miss your chance to buy back in.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#212

Post by vngzs » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

gotoeleven wrote: post #185

cshenoy wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP but I don't think we'll bounce back as quickly due to the lack of urgency coming from the Federal government. I suspect we'll fall into a vicious cycle of business layoffs, corresponding dip in consumer spending, reduction in r&d/business investment as we are now and after cases taper off which now seems even further away than what it could've been had the CDC/FDA/WH been on top of this earlier. Some countries…

What lack of urgency are you talking about?

The US lags just about every developed country on testing for Covid-19 disease.[0]

‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response[1]

[0]: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#213

Post by svara » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

Reedx wrote: post #118

mgolawala wrote: post #11

To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…

Maybe, but why don't you think the markets will bounce back once we're on the other side of this? Have underlying fundamentals changed longer term? South Korea, China, Singapore are encouraging and seeing a return back to (almost) normal life. Granted, we're not dealing with this nearly as effectively and there may be a 2nd wave to come. But at this point they seem to make the case for optimism.

Singapore is an interesting one. Their outbreak looks really benign, but actually they are on an exponential trajectory as well. The rate is just much lower, something like 7% daily. It doesn't register compared to the countries with fast growth, but if it stays like that, they will reach high numbers too. It translates to 10x per month.

See https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#214

Post by jmull » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

ailideex wrote: post #76

jusonchan wrote: post #30

I'd say keep a close eye on the Coronavirus situation. If a vaccine is found and is effective, likely the market will calm down and hit the bottom. After that its about keeping the companies afloat until they can get their revenue back up again. Most likely the quantitative easing programs from the Fed will help in this regard.

> If a vaccine is found and is effective, likely the market will calm down and hit the bottom. Realistic timeline for this seems months.

An optimistic timeline is a vaccine will be available next year and I don’t think much of the market is looking that far ahead right now.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#215

Post by raincom » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

ScoutOrgo wrote: post #32

lettergram wrote: post #26

Just my 2 cents - Take your assets out of the market. Until we (in the US) see a few senators, a justice or two and / or the VP/president/etc succumb to the disease we haven’t hit peak panic. ~50% of the workforce is about to be out of a job for a few weeks. A large portion of Restaurants are about to go bankrupt, daycares are about to go bankrupt. Houses are about to drop in price (no money, and elderly dying). The…

But if you sit on cash, you will miss the day where it has a huge gain due to some news like a vaccine announced.

Coronavirus and oil crash are huge catalysts. A vaccine won’t help much, as investors become risk-averse. When majority of investors become risk-averse, risk premium goes high, thereby reducing stock prices.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#216

Post by icedchai » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

tinyhouse wrote: post #125

mgolawala wrote: post #11

To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…

No one knows. You have the entire world working (mostly together) on ending this. I'm optimistic things will get much better in a month or so.

A month seems a bit optimistic. Even Trump himself was saying July or August. Note, he didn't specify the year.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#217

Post by radiator » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

Reedx wrote: post #118

mgolawala wrote: post #11

To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…

Maybe, but why don't you think the markets will bounce back once we're on the other side of this? Have underlying fundamentals changed longer term? South Korea, China, Singapore are encouraging and seeing a return back to (almost) normal life. Granted, we're not dealing with this nearly as effectively and there may be a 2nd wave to come. But at this point they seem to make the case for optimism.

Longer term, nothing of the underlying fundamentals has changed. This is why the collapse is inevitable.

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#218

Post by UncleMeat » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

pengaru wrote: post #41

zenlot wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worst advice ever. Do not try to buy the dip in this market. Most likely it will lead to loosing money.

It can't possible be worse than advice to buy at the start of this covid-19 disaster. I feel for those stuck holding this particular bag of shit. Fortunately I pulled out after the last TSLA earnings call, and look forward to the future shopping spree once the dust settles.

Buying when it is low is not as good as buying when it is lower. But it is still good. Buying today is much much better than buying a month ago. Or six months ago. Was it a bad idea to buy then?

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#219

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

throw03172019 wrote: post #93

nodesocket wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great point, all the "big boy" traders who have been raking in profits on put options, VIX volatility, and leveraged inverse etf's eventually will switch their trades to bull. However, keep in mind, a market down 30% requires a 43% gain to break back even.

Sorry for a maybe dumb question but what is the logic for 43% gain needed?

[deleted]

Re: Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash

#220

Post by dnautics » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

joe_the_user wrote: post #177

Reedx wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but why don't you think the markets will bounce back once we're on the other side of this? Have underlying fundamentals changed longer term? South Korea, China, Singapore are encouraging and seeing a return back to (almost) normal life. Granted, we're not dealing with this nearly as effectively and there may be a 2nd wave to come. But at this point they seem to make the case for optimism.

South Korea and China itself are the best models for countries that have (sort of) bounced back. And they leveraged a variety of mass mobilizations the US hasn't started with. So basically we're in for a LOT of pain in dealing this. Exogenous shocks usually don't provoke recessions but is going to be like a planet-wide tidal wave. Things are going to be very different at the end. Huge, efficient enterprises may well…

The assumption is that mass mobilization is 1) effective and 2) necessary. We simply don't have enough data to know one way or another. Not saying self-isolating isn't prudent, but you can't really make reliable long term economic forecasts assuming any particular disease profile.

Full disclosure: I've been short term short the market for the last three weeks.