61–70 of 499 posts
Worst drop ever for the Nasdaq Index today: -12%. These aren't 1, 2 or 3 standard-deviation events... these are more like 6 or 7 standard-deviations from the mean...
If you're experiencing 6 sigma events daily, your modelling is wrong.
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I don’t think it’s possible to tell the difference between volatility and things picking back up. Somebody trying to follow this advice might have bought on Friday when the market went up.
The market is likely to go much higher than friday in the coming decades.
I'm quite surprised by this because it was my understanding that companies were doing us a favor by employing most people. That they were forestalling replacing us with robots by paying us near subsistence wages. I'm very confused. On the one hand I have all the things I've been reading in the papers about workers being superfluous. But yet on the other hand when I just look at the evidence, it seems like companies r…
Consumer spending is kind of the foundation of the economy, and as of today in the US it's about to go into freefall. Especially services. This fall is pricing in the inevitable waves of bankruptcies in the service industry.
for services they could just automate making bookings with a deposit and not show up. or a little zoomba vacuum thing could show up.
wouldn't be inflationary as cash is being destroyed like mad as we are all replaced by robots, so that won't be a problem.
Just my 2 cents - Take your assets out of the market. Until we (in the US) see a few senators, a justice or two and / or the VP/president/etc succumb to the disease we haven’t hit peak panic. ~50% of the workforce is about to be out of a job for a few weeks. A large portion of Restaurants are about to go bankrupt, daycares are about to go bankrupt. Houses are about to drop in price (no money, and elderly dying). The…
All of the return-seeking money that pushed up asset prices in the first place is still out there, because stock market crashes don't destroy money (they just redistribute it). I wonder who has it now, and I also wonder when it will end up back in the market.
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
Even if this is only a relatively mild recession like 2000 or 1973, we'll be seeing 1600 - 1700 SPX or at least 30% below today's close.
This probably isn't the bottom. Wait a little while longer and when things start picking back up, dump in as much as you can afford.
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Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.
It's not so shallow, the stock market is still bubbly, these are the prices of mid 2017, when everyone said that the stock market is a bubble...
For me, the answer is a resounding No.
I am not well versed in the economics of depressions, but almost all the ones I know of were preceded by some monetary imbalance or the explosion of a bubble based on falsely propped up ownings. 1929 was stock being leveraged off mortgaged homes and loans, that was clearly no sustainable. 2000 was the dot com burst. 2008 was mass defaults on home loans. Is there any reason why apart from slow business for 2 months du…
To put it into perspective, the last time the market behaved like (multiple drops of this magnitude) this was 90 years ago, in 1929, and it was at the start of the Great Depression. Today was the second largest percentage drop for US Markets in history. Now is not a good time to sell your stock holdings (at least not anymore). This smells of a panic right now. I think a severe recession is all but guaranteed at this…
If you think recession is guaranteed, why not sell?
If. Make your own decisions.