“I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing” • Hacker News Board

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#331

Post by gji » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:06 PM UTC

marcus_holmes wrote: post #292

pas wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To use masks effectively, we need to stop wearing them when we're scared, and start wearing them when we're infected. But I think the social change to do this will be difficult. Not exactly. Just make it mask season and make everybody wear it. You don't know when you are contagious/infectious, and it might not be at the same time when you are feeling sick. So just make sure everyone wears it.

I don't think it's practical to insist that everyone wears a mask all the time.

Practical from a cultural standpoint or in terms of quantity? IIRC, people are required to wear masks when entering businesses in China now.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#332

Post by PaulKeeble » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:13 PM UTC

Pepe1vo wrote: post #133

ohazi wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia-grade non-biologist here, so again, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. As far as I'm aware, antibodies don't stick around after they're no longer needed... They're produced by B cells when an infection is detected, and after an initial infection, some B cells that learned how to make effective antibodies stick around in your body as "memory B cells" - these will produce the same antibodies again upon rei…

It's correct that the memory cells in your body will last a long time. However, (I think) what the parent is getting at is that within a relatively short amount of time the virus will have mutated just enough to evade detection by those memory cells.

The other four coronavirus' that form part of what we call the common cold all mutate readily and come back and reinfect us year after year. This one could be different but there is plenty of good historical reason to believe it will be like the others.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#333

Post by simonh » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:14 PM UTC

Mirioron wrote: post #323

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Wikipedia reference OP provided suggests Universal Basic Income as the solution. I believe the argument is that UBI could be conjured in to existence.

With what money? The US population is 327 million. $1,000 * 12 * 327,000,000,000 = $3,924,000,000,000 Collected US tax revenue for 2019 was $3.46 trillion. Even if you could afford it in terms of money, it still wouldn't change anything, because you still have the same amount of goods available.

The problem isn't really the amount of goods, we have sufficient resources to meet everyone's basic needs. The problem is liquidity as commerce collapses and pay cheques for many people dwindle or disappear in the short to medium term.

UBI would for most people be offset by increases in payroll taxes, so for the majority it would be a small overall change in income, up for some and down for others, dramatically buffering the cost compared to your calculation.

Overall I'm a UBI skeptic, I don't see any way it could herald in a utopia of freedom some of it's proponents imagine. That's wishful thinking, but as an emergency measure to help people through a severe crisis like this it might make sense.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#334

Post by marvin » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

panarky wrote: post #330

mcsb4 wrote: post #85

I don't understand why we are not trying to interrupt the transmission vectors with masks and hand sanitizer like the Chinese do. They ramped the daily production from 10M to 100M and even advised the use of make-shift masks. The reaction in the west: masks are not protecting 100% and also we don't have any and we are too lazy to produce them, although they are much cheaper than the economic impact covid-19 has. 1. y…

It helps to understand the relative sizes of the particles masks are expected to filter from the air. A coronavirus is about 0.1 µm while surgical masks start to become effective at around 200 µm and up. So a coronavirus is about 2000 times smaller than what a surgical mask can filter. I imagine a chain link fence which is pretty effective at stopping basketballs. A pollen spore is about 2000 times smaller than a bas…

Those virus particles usually ride on a droplet of fluid, or another big particle. And you're not guaranteed to get sick if you ingest one virus.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#335

Post by marcus_holmes » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:26 PM UTC

dmwallin wrote: post #312

marcus_holmes wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference in effectiveness is huge, to the point where it's ridiculous to be healthy and wear a mask. Like I said, they don't put masks on surgery patients. And don't forget the social signal part; if everyone wears a mask all the time, then we don't know who actually considers themselves to be infectious. Whereas if just the infectious people wear masks, then we know who they are and can act appropriately (bein…

I think the social signal part has second order effects that make it work out not as you would expect. If ONLY sick people tend to wear masks then masks will make you a more visible target of fear and hate, which would lead people who are sick to not wear masks. It's a much better idea to destigmatize the act of mask wearing so we can get larger coverage of sick people with mask s.

in the West, yes. Because we're idiots about this sort of thing.

In Asia, the feeling is gratitude - thank you for wearing a mask and protecting me from your illness

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#336

Post by marcus_holmes » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:27 PM UTC

tasuki wrote: post #310

marcus_holmes wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference in effectiveness is huge, to the point where it's ridiculous to be healthy and wear a mask. Like I said, they don't put masks on surgery patients. And don't forget the social signal part; if everyone wears a mask all the time, then we don't know who actually considers themselves to be infectious. Whereas if just the infectious people wear masks, then we know who they are and can act appropriately (bein…

> The difference in effectiveness is huge, to the point where it's ridiculous to be healthy and wear a mask. I think the point is that you have no idea whether you're healthy.

I get that. But still, if you're going to not wear a mask all the time, then better to wear one when you think you're sick than when you think you're healthy.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#337

Post by 0-_-0 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

> How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months).

Could this mean that covid-19 is here to stay? Is it the new common cold, but more serious?

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#338

Post by remmargorp64 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

panarky wrote: post #330

mcsb4 wrote: post #85

I don't understand why we are not trying to interrupt the transmission vectors with masks and hand sanitizer like the Chinese do. They ramped the daily production from 10M to 100M and even advised the use of make-shift masks. The reaction in the west: masks are not protecting 100% and also we don't have any and we are too lazy to produce them, although they are much cheaper than the economic impact covid-19 has. 1. y…

It helps to understand the relative sizes of the particles masks are expected to filter from the air. A coronavirus is about 0.1 µm while surgical masks start to become effective at around 200 µm and up. So a coronavirus is about 2000 times smaller than what a surgical mask can filter. I imagine a chain link fence which is pretty effective at stopping basketballs. A pollen spore is about 2000 times smaller than a bas…

Everyone seems to missing one very big, important thing that masks accomplish, even if they don't stop the airborne virus itself:

Masks stop people from constantly touching and/or itching their mouth and nose.

Think about that for a second, before you tell people how useless masks are.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#339

Post by ALittleLight » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #147

ALittleLight wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would choose to spend time working though if they could do whatever they wanted instead without cost?

It's not without cost, you lose the additional income you'd get from working. People making $1,000/month expend extra effort to make more than that when the effort to make $1,000/month is nonzero, so I have no problem thinking people with any kind of opportunity will do so when the effort to make $1,000/month is zero, as they will have a lot more available unexpended effort.

In a normal situation this is true. In situation described above only the essentials are being produced by the economy and everyone gets essentials and nobody producing non-essentials works.

Having more money isn't useful in this situation. You already get the essentials and can't buy non-essentials because they aren't being produced.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#340

Post by lenkite » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:31 PM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #27

jonrimmer wrote: post #12

In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. Regardless of the privacy and civil liberty concerns, I think that's where we'll eventually end up, and to your children it will one day seem crazy that a person with an infectious illness was once able to freely walk the…

Imagine a future where you do a swab test every morning while brushing your teeth. If you had any of thousands of infectious diseases, you're required to stay home. The test would take only 5 minutes, and you get fined if you don't do it, and receive sick pay if you test positive. I imagine that within a few years of rolling this out, common colds might be a thing of the past, and overall worker productivity higher r…

Imagine a future in which employers can also gain history to such health data and ensure jobs are given to the people of superior health. Such means will be necessary for economic health and progress of human civilisation. Marriage prospects, political and administration posts, etc can all leverage advantage from such a better policy.