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Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

washingtonpost.com

281–290 of 319 posts

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#281
post #50

Imagine if Trump had tried as hard to contain coronavirus as he’s trying to pump markets rn

I have to agree. A full lockdown of the country with a return to normal at the speed China achieved would do more than fooling around with interest rates. In the current situation, there's not much productive a business can do with more loans anyway.

China's economy has is no way returned to normal.

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/...

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/...

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#282
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sort of surprised they didn't try to push the issue from the bottom. give every tax filer some amount of money say, $200. A bonus for each dependent, say, $100. pulled numbers absolutely out of thin air. I thought the issue was money sloshing around at the bottom, a couple hundred bucks can be a big deal when you're out of work. Ah well, I'm sure the experts have it well in hand.

It's called helicopter money. Australia and Hong Kong already announced going down this route. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money It is very last measure as in that point you are basically admitting that capitalism has failed.

It was done to great effect in Australia during the GFC, and the fact it was done early is a contributing factor to its success allowing us to ride it out with minimal downside. So hardly a last resort.

The current government is considering doing it again too as you say. Though of course, since they were in opposition last time they've spent the last decade saying how it was such a terrible idea last time.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/mar/...

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An option not talked about much yet is cancelling debts. The Romans did it quite a few times. An effective redistribution of wealth from people who own things to people who do things.

Effective sure, but surely you could have a fairer way. For example, one of the variant of debt cancellation I hear about is the proposal by Sanders and Warren to cancel all student debt. Isn't that extremely unfair to people who chose to not go to college because tuition is costly? Isn't it unfair to people who put financial prudence in front of needless consumerism, by saving more to pay down their student debt?

Curing polio wouldn't be fair to everyone who already died of polio.

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. That's exactly what it means. 3000 cases of positively identified infections in individuals, if you want to get more wordy. Some of those have recovered, some have died. Still the number is over that today.

You don’t have an accurate sample size if you don’t measure. Based on the growth rates over time in every other country, the US should have way more cases. There are only a few thousand because we aren’t measuring. FYI the governor of Ohio estimates 100,000 people in Ohio are infected. So there is that.

He's way off, he's a Republican and more cases = better for them, because that means this has a CFR of < 1%... my guess would maybe be more like 100-1k, but that doubles in 6 days to 200-2k, then 300-3k...etc... in 20 days it could be 100k though.. but the hospital's would be extended beyond belief, and I haven't heard reports of that yet.

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#285
post #134
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are we doing to flatten the curve? I keep seeing the us getting compared to Italy.

Well systemically remember Americans are out-of-the-box more “socially-distanced” than Italians. We all commute one person to a car, we have an outsized sense of personal space. We are less community oriented by and large.

tell that to the people riding the subway...or lining up at the bars.

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too late for what? This was going to happen no matter what the fed did. If the mkt blew up because of inflation then your argument would make sense. That's not what happened.

Well if the quantative easing was phased out and interest rates started increasing in 2011, the stock market wouldn't be at all times high, billionaires wouldn't be so rich, but the economy would be better off.

You're just making things up. We couldn't have increased interest rates if we wanted to because Europe had to hold their rates low to deal with their debt crisis. If we moved ours out of step then it would have caused appreciation in the dollar and likely would have damaged US manufacturing. The US lower middle class likely would have been hurt if we did what you just suggested.

Yes, inequality is a massive economic problem. Yes, we need to find a way to fix it. Spouting poorly formed conspiracy theories about financial markets is not the way to do it. We weren't holding rates low to inflate equity markets. The fed doesn't care about equity markets more than any other economic gauge. We were holding rates low because we were trying to minimize unemployment and there were no signs of inflation.

When we started getting nervous about inflation, we started increasing rates, and selling off the balance sheet. That didn't go terribly well which is we stopped.

The fed is a completely apolitical institution that works very hard to monitor and assist the economy. They are academics, not billionaires. Their sole purpose is to make sure that you have a job and don't have to worry about the price of milk increasing 200% in a week.

Both of those things have been called into question this week, neither is because the fed didn't increase interest rates quickly enough.

I'm not going to assume anything about your political leanings, but I do want to address this. I have heard a lot of Bernie supporters spouting the theory that you just told me. The irony of that is that he wants to put labor reps on the fed. You know what labor reps would push for? Super low interest rates to weaken the dollar and increase manufacturing activity. Their position is completely contradictory.

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's foolish because it's literally impossible to avoid a heavy recession or depression when people are told to stay inside and do nothing. The odds of this action working out well now are slim to none. Then when it's actually needed they will have to do it again. You'll end up with the same non recovery recovery where people are barely getting by but certain asset classes are inflated to the moon.

No, it's not foolish. We need to keep markets liquid to avoid a lending crisis. That's why the fed announced asset purchases. They don't do them all at once. They buy steadily over a period of time to help keep prices stable. That's very important. They had to do rate cuts now because it takes a long, long time for them to work (measured in years rather than months). That was a preventative measure, not a band-aid. L…

> Look, guys, I promise you the fed knows wtf they're doing. These guys live and breath to be ready to respond to these type of emergencies.

Isn't that the same thing we were told in 2008?

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#288
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a billion people in India and so far the mortality and spread rates there aren't similar to other countries. There is a theory that humid and warm places will not have these mortality rates (as validated by our common sense that summer time flu is less common). I don't think we have enough information about the virus to generalize to the whole world yet.

> There's a billion people in India and so far the mortality and spread rates there aren't similar to other countries That is a lack of testing, same as what keeps US numbers depressed. India is severely lacking in cohesive response to viral outbreaks, to the point they are still dealing with a Swine Flu epidemic from 2009 ( https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/9-swine-flu-deaths-utt... ) > There is a theory that hu…

Not quite: https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-news/march-2020/rese...

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need band-aids now, like in 2008. The problem is not the band-aid now, the problem is that we did not rip it off in the good times but instead spent all the money in irresponsible tax cuts for people that didn't need them.

No. We don't. We need more emphasis on value vs. growth. In what world is WeWork's valuation sustainable. Also who the hell is downvoting me? LOL. If you downvote, please comment here so we can debate. I'm dying to see you defend the bull market case (even sideways to slightly up which would be best case scenario).

I generally try to take comments on their own merits, but I ruthlessly downvote comments that complain about being downvoted.

Re: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will, but not just yet. There’s too many people trying to refi right now and supply can’t keep up with demand, so rates are higher than they should be. Give it another 3-6 months and I wouldn’t be surprised if mortgage rates fell by another 1%.

There must be some floor based on default rates right? If 2% of people default you can't go below 2%. And of course default rates go up in recessions.

I personally don’t think there’s a floor, all that matters is spread over treasuries. If we go with your 2% number, that’s the spread between the mortgage risk and the risk-free rate. If risk-free goes to -1%, then it’d make sense for mortgages to go to 1%. This is something that already happens in European countries. I don’t think there’s an inherent reason for the risk-free rate to be a positive number.

On a different note, 2% default != 2% loss. Mortgages are secured by the property, losing investors only a small fraction in foreclosure, so a 2% default * 25% severity = 0.5% loss.

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