Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars • Hacker News Board

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#221

Post by icelancer » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

sb8244 wrote: post #175

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and dollars are not totally different things. How many lives will be ruined by total financial destruction? How many will commit suicide in the months and years after due to financial issues?

Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.

Death rate is highly correlated with unemployment. They are not NOT the same thing.

https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#222

Post by blendo » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

untog wrote: post #49

blendo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd suggest they put a couple of picnic tables out in the parking lot for take-out. Curious about other commercial operations that could satisfy the rule "... all gatherings under 50 participants are prohibited unless previously announced criteria for public health and social distancing are met"? Take-out biergarten? Silent disco?

> I'd suggest they put a couple of picnic tables out in the parking lot for take-out. Why, though? The whole point is to stop people gathering in public places. > Curious about other commercial operations that could satisfy the rule Again, why? These rules weren't put into place as a challenge for entrepreneurs.

I want to eat and drink with my family and friends. And it's spring, so I want to do it outdoors.

A food truck with a couple of outdoor tables has got to be lower risk than a full-service bar/restaurant, while still giving us human companionship.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#223

Post by icelancer » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:47 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #135

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

They announced $50 billion in SBA loans (up to $2 million per business) for small and medium businesses. Interest rate is 3.75%. These kind of funds will help a lot of businesses float through: https://www.sba.gov/about-sba/sba-newsroom/press-releases-me...

Loans? Not grants? While large businesses get quantitative easing, bailouts of airline industries, etc? Sounds about right.

Also from the announcement, lol:

"businesses with credit available elsewhere are not eligible"

Ah, so if you can get credit elsewhere, you can't get our help, even if it's needed.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#224

Post by abtinf » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:47 AM UTC

sb8244 wrote: post #175

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and dollars are not totally different things. How many lives will be ruined by total financial destruction? How many will commit suicide in the months and years after due to financial issues?

Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.

Who will provide the safety net when the entire economy is shut down? Production precedes consumption, always.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#225

Post by acangiano » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:47 AM UTC

topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Also, 2% is very dubious. Italy is at 7%. The Philippines at 8%. I mean, sure these figures are out of people who were tested, but 2% is looking awfully optimistic at this point. So the potential for death reduction is even greater than the intentionally unassailable 1% figure you picked.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#226

Post by wefarrell » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:48 AM UTC

inetknght wrote: post #38

wefarrell wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

State governments can't provide that kind of relief without help from the federal government and the federal government has made no such commitment. Are you expecting states to wait for something that might not come?

> State governments can't provide that kind of relief Maybe not all states, but some states can afford it better than others.

States' fiscal powers are nowhere near that of the federal government. They borrow at much lower rates, have more flexibility with respect to the level of debt they can take, take in far more revenue, and as a last resort print money.

There is no historical precedent for any state bailing out an industry to this extent.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#227

Post by nick_kline » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:48 AM UTC

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

Calling Andrew Yang! Put up the bat signal.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#228

Post by turtlebits » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:48 AM UTC

caconym_ wrote: post #2

Good. Aggressive steps like this are the only way we'll get a handle on what's happening. The alternative is exponential runaway and complete disaster. Full disclosure: I live in Seattle.

Agreed. Wish people were more responsible and this wouldn't have to happen. Drove by the mall today and would have expected it to be a ghost town, but the parking lots were full and people were still walking and queueing close together.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#229

Post by icelancer » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:49 AM UTC

eyegor wrote: post #105

bthrn wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is crazy to ponder given it’s only been a couple weeks. I feel terrible about so many smaller businesses teetering close to insolvency.

It's less about insolvency and more about having a ton of savings. The entire business model is driven by customers, and they go from netting $2k/day to losing on salaries and rent. How long do you think a successful bar could survive hemorrhaging money on a daily basis, with no hopes of when customers would be allowed to return? What bank is going to write a loan that risky to keep them afloat?

Give them what the government gives large industries: Bailouts and direct cash payments, plus a loan.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#230

Post by djannzjkzxn » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:49 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #124

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally agree. The bailout of the banks has started with 0% rates and massive QE, which at the end of the day while I think necessary to prevent a credit crisis will do nothing to help the real economic situation; demand is dead for a while because of the health situation. We should consider more radical measures like temporary rent/mortgage freezes.

> The bailout of the banks has started with 0% rates and massive QE, which at the end of the day while I think necessary to prevent a credit crisis Well, no, if you bailed out businesses and consumers directly, there also wouldn't be a credit crisis. Structurally, though, that's fiscal stimulus, which isn't the Feds job, and good luck getting much of that through Congress, and by that I mostly mean the Senate Republi…

The gap between the rates on the 30 year treasury and the 30 year mortgage increased from ~1.5% to over 3% and getting worse, before QE4 was announced (and this was already pricing in some fed action). This indicates that investors stopped buying mortgage-backed securities which would have eventually resulted in home buying activity stopping and a housing market crash. I don’t think any bailout for restaurants and bars or mortgage/rent holiday would have helped with this. I’m not saying such stimulus isn’t necessary, but it doesn’t replace fed policy.