Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars • Hacker News Board

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#141

Post by cma » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:00 AM UTC

mc3 wrote: post #127

cavisne wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such a bailout is feasible. During the financial crisis houses were physically built and purchased without enough people with the income to cover the loan. The difference here is that there is no underlying financial issue. People will still want to go to restaurants and bars after this is over, and it will end.

What about solvency, and the knock on effect to creditors. They can't pay the booze supplier and they go out of business etc. This could go on for months. Most businesses don't make those sweet SaaS margins. Same for airlines.

Other countries are doing loan payment, rent, and interest moratoriums, etc.

We've built everything with growth as an underlying assumption with no ability to pause things and focus on essential services for a month or two and then start back up.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#142

Post by ken » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:00 AM UTC

freeone3000 wrote: post #110

tayo42 wrote: post #82

How long does this go on for? Realistically we can't just live with the world shut down (can we?) with a vaccine far off, this can't be the new normal?

I think we're about to find out very quickly exactly how much labor is nonessential.

We’re going to find out which can work remotely. The “I can haz cheeseburger”s will survive while every arts organization goes under.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#143

Post by john61 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:01 AM UTC

Taek wrote: post #77

reedx8 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.

Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU. All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people…

Also if the healthcare system is overloaded it is also overloaded for young people that get another disease or have an accident.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#144

Post by topkai22 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:02 AM UTC

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save.

A 1% reduction in the case fatality rate saves roughly 2M people. Let’s assume that each would live another 10 years and that each person year is worth $100k. That means a 1% reduction in the case fatality rate is worth 2 trillion dollars. That’s roughly 10% of GDP. You can play with the numbers a bit, it’s hard not to end up in the “taking a multi year recession might be worth it” territory. Obviously, there are decreasing marginal returns to various actions, but the it’s important to keep in mind the scale of what we are trying to avoid.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#145

Post by ncallaway » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:03 AM UTC

reedx8 wrote: post #59

Cyph0n wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also live in the Raleigh area, and it has just been baffling how care-free everyone is...

The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.

I downvoted you because I think you have some factual mistakes:

"only much older people have to worry about it"

That's false. There are a number of comorbidities that don't have anything to do with age. Immuno-compromised individuals, or individuals with pulminary conditions, are at risk regardless of their age.

Further, while the risk does go down for younger populations, only children seem to be fairly risk-free. Healthy individuals of all ages have died of this (at rates significantly higher than that of the flu).

Finally, younger people (even children) still get infected by the disease, still incubate it, and still spread it even if they have no or low symptoms. This means low-risk people can easily spread it to high-risk people without being aware of it.

"the cure already exists in washing yourself"

That's false. Handwashing is not a cure. Handwashing is a preventative measure. They are totally different things.

Once infected, handwashing will do nothing to protect you (though can still help protect others, so ill people should continue to handwash). There are no cures for COVID-19. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. There are no widespread treatments for COVID-19 (though some human trials underway). The only care we can currently provide care for people with COVID-19 is to treat the symptoms.

"This common flu is here to stay"

That's false. Coronavirus is not influenza. It is a type of coronavirus, and is closely related to SARS. The CFR of influenza is around 0.1%, while the Coronavirus is estimated to be around 1% (or higher if medical care becomes saturated).

"the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant."

That's unknown, but disagrees with pretty much all of the expert opinion on the topic. The infections disease expert in the US federal government (Anthony Fauci) thinks it's possible that a million people in the US will die of Coronavirus.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#146

Post by mondoshawan » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:04 AM UTC

Taek wrote: post #77

reedx8 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.

Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU. All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people…

Sorry to be that person, but citation needed? Where is a reputible source for this information?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#147

Post by klipt » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:04 AM UTC

dpcan wrote: post #119

graeme wrote: post #99

Anyone found any good info on the risks of food itself. Eg kitchen staff is infected, coughs into meal 1. Do you get if it’s cold food, like a salad or sushi? 2. If yes, do you get it if it’s warm food, like indian food? 3. If yes, do you get if you reheat/microwave the food? If so, what is required/ Have not seen a lot of discussion about this. Did see that in china restaurants would certify the body temperatures of…

It transmits in several ways, including droplets: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmissi... And WHO says it lives on surfaces for a couple hours up to several days. https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses So, personally, I'm not eating anything if someone coughs on it or around it. I'm not even buying fresh fruit and veggies at the store right now. I can't find any information…

Soap kills the virus, so raw fruit and vegetables are probably fine if you wash them with soap first.

Heat also kills the virus so cooked vegetables should be fine (and cooked fruit too if you're into that I guess).

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#148

Post by ken » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:05 AM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #117

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

Suspend rent payments

Without work, I can’t make hours to keep my health insurance, so I’ll be forced to buy COBRA, which is just as expensive as rent.

(Or I could risk going without, while living at this continent’s ground zero for a pandemic.)

Entire industries are being shut down. There are no easy answers here.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#149

Post by o-__-o » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:05 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #135

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

They announced $50 billion in SBA loans (up to $2 million per business) for small and medium businesses. Interest rate is 3.75%. These kind of funds will help a lot of businesses float through: https://www.sba.gov/about-sba/sba-newsroom/press-releases-me...

Those numbers are atrocious. But if SBA is offering that I wonder what small business loans from banks will look like, 1-1.5%?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#150

Post by pfranz » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 4:05 AM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #117

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

Suspend rent payments

I'm curious how this works in practice? Rent pays for groundskeepers, repairs and maintenance, your landlord's income, insurance, etc. Mortgages seem more straightforward. You would still owe the original amount and are likely still accruing interest.