191–200 of 319 posts
At this point, I'm actually starting to wonder. If we literally do nothing about the virus, or do the bare minimum, the worst case scenario based on the numbers I hear is 7.7b * 0.6 (total infections) * 0.02-0.03 (presumed mortality rate after the healthcare system collapses MINUS the rate if it doesn't), ~115m people are going to die worldwide. This appears to me to be the absolute worst case scenario given current…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the Fed loses this fight, game over. This isn't the Fed's fight. Monetary policy won't fix this.
Precisely. This isn't an issue driven by obscure and multi-layers investment vehicles that can't survive when stressed. This is a decrease in the market driven by actual significantly reduced consumption and demand for a wide variety of services. The Fed keeping things liquid is important, as are things like low interest loans to small businesses. But it doesn't matter how cheap your credit is if you don't actually h…
At this point, I'm actually starting to wonder. If we literally do nothing about the virus, or do the bare minimum, the worst case scenario based on the numbers I hear is 7.7b * 0.6 (total infections) * 0.02-0.03 (presumed mortality rate after the healthcare system collapses MINUS the rate if it doesn't), ~115m people are going to die worldwide. This appears to me to be the absolute worst case scenario given current…
That's quite an assumption!
The Fed can, and will do much, much more. The signal here should be read as "whatever it takes to avoid a depression." Among other steps, this is likely to mean: - Negative-yielding long-term treasuries - Direct purchase of stocks or ETFs, which would require congressional approval. Expect the discussions to start soon. The steps already taken and the ones to be taken will create financial manipulation on a scale nev…
If the Fed loses this fight, game over. This isn't the Fed's fight. Monetary policy won't fix this.
Not only that but they've removed the reserve requirements entirely for "thousands" of banks. There are only ~4500 commercial banks in the USA total. So that's at least a good fraction of them. These banks can now create money out of nothing as much as they want.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does that stuff help? Yes, if practiced as intended, which there is no guarantee. Did Italy do that? Perhaps not as quickly as they should have. The rest of the world is learning from Italy's experience (they should have been paying closer attention to China, but that's another story) Another thing to realize is that these numbers you are seeing are WITH CONTROLS. Sure, "only" 3,000 Chinese have died. Maybe it's more…
Didn't one model show over 100M?
That would implies 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate 15 (close to measles), and a mortality of 30% (close to Ebola).
If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does that stuff help? Yes, if practiced as intended, which there is no guarantee. Did Italy do that? Perhaps not as quickly as they should have. The rest of the world is learning from Italy's experience (they should have been paying closer attention to China, but that's another story) Another thing to realize is that these numbers you are seeing are WITH CONTROLS. Sure, "only" 3,000 Chinese have died. Maybe it's more…
Didn't one model show over 100M?
That would imply 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate of 15 (close to measles), and a mortality rate of 30% (close to Ebola).
If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does that stuff help? Yes, if practiced as intended, which there is no guarantee. Did Italy do that? Perhaps not as quickly as they should have. The rest of the world is learning from Italy's experience (they should have been paying closer attention to China, but that's another story) Another thing to realize is that these numbers you are seeing are WITH CONTROLS. Sure, "only" 3,000 Chinese have died. Maybe it's more…
Didn't one model show over 100M?
At this point, I'm actually starting to wonder. If we literally do nothing about the virus, or do the bare minimum, the worst case scenario based on the numbers I hear is 7.7b * 0.6 (total infections) * 0.02-0.03 (presumed mortality rate after the healthcare system collapses MINUS the rate if it doesn't), ~115m people are going to die worldwide. This appears to me to be the absolute worst case scenario given current…
Does this interest rate transfer to lower mortgage rates? Is now a good time to refinance loans?
It will, but not just yet. There’s too many people trying to refi right now and supply can’t keep up with demand, so rates are higher than they should be. Give it another 3-6 months and I wouldn’t be surprised if mortgage rates fell by another 1%.