51–60 of 81 posts
The comparison between social distancing and quarantine has 0 sense. In Italy, we tried distancing, but without strict measures, people won't listen and the virus kept spreading. You can't enforce something like that without police action
The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…
It is still hard to grasp that the entire human civilization will be infected with this not yet fully understood virus. What if it makes everyone infertile? Real Children of Men scenario. The measures taken are optimistic, but when everything is one the line, you have to make pessimistic decisions. First avoid human extinction. Making bets with human kind as the wager are immoral in the highest order.
The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…
> just another strain of the flu That's like saying humans are just another type of salmon.
My understanding of a lot of countries approaches is that they're not trying to minimise the total number of people that have or will be infected, but they're trying to minimise the maximum number of people infected at a time (to ensure that healthcare is still available to everybody that needs it). In these simulations, that would correspond to drawing some horizontal line across the chart and trying to keep the ora…
It is so, at least in Italy. Basically they told us the reason of these measure is to spread the cases over a larger time frame... but nobody has said it's to reduce the number of cases.
Nice simulations. But I believe that using a population of only 200 individuals might be giving misleading results because it enters too fast the logistic limit part of the curve before you can experience the early exponential part. https://www.dummies.com/education/science/environmental-scie...
Yep. Would be nice if they let the user play around with the parameters. Might not be feasible to animate thousands of objects in a browser though.
If someone has a better approach, I’d love to hear it.
The people who don't understand this stuff, aren't failing to understand it because no one wrote about it. It's because they are not white collar or college graduates and are not likely to read The Washington Post in the first place. My father is the perfect example of this. He's dyslexic and so he struggles to read detailed journalism and gets all of his information from cable TV news like Fox News.
Can't view due to cookiewall, is this an article about a simulator somewhere (that someone could link) or is the simulator their own?
Can't view due to cookiewall, is this an article about a simulator somewhere (that someone could link) or is the simulator their own?
Why don’t you support the paper and buy a subscription?
It's also not something I can look at before deciding whether I want to pay for it, not like a product in a shop or something I can order and return (unused) for 14 days. If paying 50 cents for this article was possible, I would have no idea what I'm getting (beyond the title "Corona Simulator") or whether it's worth it, though a one-time 50 cents charge would definitely be more considerable than a recurring and more expensive subscription.
The assumption is wrong. There are several cases of recovered patients getting coronavirus again. This virus is similar to HIV. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-woman-covid-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This article, to start, for multiple paragraphs: As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”
It's a language problem. Things like self quarantine of infected (and potentially infected) people have a big impact on how fast a disease spreads (meeting the bar for "effective" in my mind). What they don't do is completely stop it.