Earlier quoted context omitted.
The fact that there wasn't a credible free press to report responsibly on an emerging illness or a free vote to hold officials accountable are not at all unrelated to the authoritarian system that allowed them to build a hospital fast or close a city or whatever they did well on. I'll admit, though, that I wouldn't trade my right to vote for a cure for the common cold, coronavirus, or anything else.
> authoritarian system that allowed them to build a hospital fast or close a city or whatever they did well on. Look, this is a dangerous meme in more ways than one. Italy and Spain managed to lock down entire cities, and those are countries with a strong tradition of democracy. Emergency powers, martial law etc. are a thing, and there's even quite a bit of precedent for using them to deal w/ disease outbreaks. Even…
Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
621–630 of 740 posts
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#622As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…
Any government or organization is problematic if it puts 'principles' over human lives.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#623Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Italian government as the first Western country facing an outbreak was dealing with the prisoner's paradox. If you are the only one instituting strong lockdown measures you are the only one paying the economic price. It was wrong, but it's understandable that the government hoped that the infection could be contained to two clusters. The other European governments and the US on the other hand have absolutely no e…
So you're arbitrarily suggesting that being the first western country is special. China's economy was already affected at that point. In our global world, why doesn't that count? By your logic, I could also say the US doesn't do enough for obvious reasons: They're the first western non-European country affected. They don't want to be the only ones (after China and Italy) paying the economic price.
Besides Italy did start to apply lockdown measures to specific towns, and closed schools when they had 20 cases. It was insufficient but at least it was an attempt. The US has had clusters out of control in Washington state for almost as long and the federal agencies were actually trying to silence them. And another in NYC, which is basically the economic powerhouse of the United States.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#624As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…
In the first few weeks of the virus transmission in China, nobody can anticipate the lethality of the coronavirus. People may think it is just another flu. Who knows? Yes, there were delays in the reporting and yes it could have been handled better. But the following actions of China were swift and determined. The fact is the coronavirus has been contained in China. The cases reported in China are single digit today. Fact shows China's model is effective, no?
You think the governments in EU or US could have done a better job if the coronavirus first appeared there? I'd say no. Why? Because the EU and USA have all the data and information about the coronavirus shared by China for months. You have witnessed all the mess caused by the virus in China for months and so what? Trump was down playing the danger of COVID-19 just a few days ago. The USA cannot even cover a fraction of its citizens for testing the virus.
We know it seemed to be a god sent opportunity to point fingers to the "authoritarian" system of China at this moment. But guess what? The coronavirus does not slow itself down regardless you are a democracy or not. Prove your system/model is better by saving the lives of your own citizens instead of bashing China, will you?
PS. we still don't know from where/what the coronavirus come from. I suggest wait for scientific proof before jumping to the conclusion that it started from China. last time I checked, the Spanish Flu did not originate from Spain.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#625Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, as a physicist, you should know how exponential growth works. Let's say you have a pile of Uranium that's juuuust sub-critical. You would likely to be confident to stand next to it without significant fear. But if someone throws on just enough additional Uranium for the pile to go supercritical , you would run for your life because none of the following will matter[1] all that much to the final outcome: 1) How mu…
Most people will not go to the hospital, they'll stay at home and they wont die unless they dont drink water and eat food with poor nutritional value. That's why I dont understand the crisis communication on the subject. I understand exponential growth, I dont under and the panic about getting sick with a flu like virus. If it was something causing skin lesions I'd be in panic mode because the victims would be at a h…
The flu and the common cold virus behave comparably to the current pandemic. The flu in particular kills about 300K per year after infecting about 20% of the global population. That's a mortality rate of 0.02% and a survival rate of 99.98% for the general population, which is not a fun statistic, but nothing to panic about either.
Critically, the hospitalisation rates for the flu are so low that the current infrastructure can handle it. People still die, but only if they couldn't be saved with medical intervention. Much of the time they will receive treatment and live.
Even if you shift the numbers around a lot -- say, 50% infection rate -- the orders of magnitude come out to about the same. Governments can just put out ad campaigns to encourage people to get the flu vaccine to compensate for a particularly bad flu season.
The critical thing with the cold and the flu is that they move well past the initial exponential growth phase into a "logistic curve" long before the hospital systems become overloaded with the sick. That is, each new strain of the flu runs out of victims by hitting the population ceiling of 7.6 billion. Not everyone is vulnerable, and the rest either become immune or protected by herd immunity.
Now compare this to the Coronavirus. It has a mortality rate of about 0.8% of confirmed cases, with medical care. Much more importantly, about 10% of the confirmed cases required intensive care.
Nobody really knows the ratio of confirmed-to-real cases, but I'll be generous and assume that only 20% of all cases get a confirmed diagnosis, with 80% of cases just shrugging it off as a case of the "sniffles". Similarly, I'll assume that the virus will halt at around 20% of the total population.
For Italy, with a population of 60M people, that's 12 million infected, equivalent to 2.4 million confirmed cases, 240K in intensive care, and 19K dead.
But I lied.
I lied when I said "240K in intensive care". There just aren't that many beds, or intubation kits, or CPAP machines, or even oxygen masks. There aren't anywhere near enough doctors, or nurses, or any resource you care to name. I know this to be true because all of these things have run out already.
Long before the exponential curve starts to "slow down" and become logistic, the entire medical infrastructure becomes overwhelmed and the cases that "would survive with intensive care" turn into "deaths".
Worse, this happened at a "confirmed case count" of about 10K. I said 2.4M above!
The conclusion is that the Coronavirus can overwhelm medical systems waaaaaaay before it hits the "knee of the logistic curve", making it a nearly pure exponential curve. Exacerbating this is the incubation time, meaning that any measure taken today will have essentially no effect for at least a week.
Act now and save lives, act tomorrow and see your loved ones die.
This is the difference.
3blue1brown explains it quite well, and I recommend everyone watch his video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#626Earlier quoted context omitted.
They do seem to be missing Denmark though, which should stick out somewhere top-left of Norway. I was just talking, via text, to a friend in Norway. They're going for major restrictions on contact and the people there are not worried enough yet. I sent her that graph.
Norway is going into full lockdown (stay at home, don't hoard). Borders closing except for export/import from Monday. Hut vacations now getting banned as well.
Open air walks are ok, as long as you keep a reasonable distance to other people. Only go shopping if it's absolutely necessary.
And yet some people are still going to crowded bars, like nothing's going on. It's amazing how stubborn some people are.
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#627Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, as a physicist, you should know how exponential growth works. Let's say you have a pile of Uranium that's juuuust sub-critical. You would likely to be confident to stand next to it without significant fear. But if someone throws on just enough additional Uranium for the pile to go supercritical , you would run for your life because none of the following will matter[1] all that much to the final outcome: 1) How mu…
Most people will not go to the hospital, they'll stay at home and they wont die unless they dont drink water and eat food with poor nutritional value. That's why I dont understand the crisis communication on the subject. I understand exponential growth, I dont under and the panic about getting sick with a flu like virus. If it was something causing skin lesions I'd be in panic mode because the victims would be at a h…
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#628Earlier quoted context omitted.
>>Personally I'd much rather take the Chinese model for the next few months than risk me and my family dying or going bankrupt over the next few months. Always makes me sad when Americans willing give up essential liberty to purchase perceived safety. Personally I would much rather look the situation rational, may the assessment of risk for myself, then choose on my own what course of action(s) I will take. Not have…
Even if it's temporary?
Government never roll back control they have ceased. Look at the after effects of 9/11, those provisions where to be "temporary" yet have been renewed endlessly and will always be renewed
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#629Earlier quoted context omitted.
Norway is going into full lockdown (stay at home, don't hoard). Borders closing except for export/import from Monday. Hut vacations now getting banned as well.
Which is a good plan and similar to what Denmark is doing, ie. stay at home as much as possible, everyone who can work from home does so, closing the borders for all non-essential traffic, and so on. There is a whole system being set up for compensation to concert venues and other businesses who are severely hit by the lockdown and blanket ban on gatherings of more than 100 people. Open air walks are ok, as long as y…
Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
#630Earlier quoted context omitted.
Spanish lead epidemiologist was telling us a few weeks ago that nothing was going to happen here. I did my numbers back in December. In January was already pretty worried, but I'm not an expert I thought. Maybe there's something I'm not taking in account. So I kept reading about models and stats. Not that difficult. Ran my numbers again and again, yep it seemed pretty bad no matter what I cheated myself with paramete…
What “numbers” were you doing back in December? The virus had not spread outside of Wuhan, or been named or sequenced, by that point.
I have to say that some time ago I had a course of applied statistics with epidemiology exercises so I was not really an alien to it, but not an expert either.