Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

left.it

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

571–580 of 740 posts

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#571

Post by mackrevinack »

mirimir wrote: post #37

Maybe Italy is a worst case, both because it didn't quarantine early enough, and because greater population inversion. > It's now a well-established fact that older people and those with underlying health issues are more susceptible to succumbing to Covid-19. With 23 percent Italians aged 65 or above and a median age of 47.3, the Italian population is the oldest in Europe. This is chiefly responsible for the high fat…

and it doesn't help that italians have a tradition of kissing each other on the cheek, twice, when they meet

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#572

Post by dragontamer »

bluGill wrote: post #278
smacktoward wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the spread in our city is quite low for now If you’re in the United States, where testing has been infuriatingly limited, the fact of the matter is you have no idea what the spread in your community is. The numbers aren’t low because nobody has the virus, they’re low because nobody has been tested. If we did actual testing, they might come in low or they might come in high, who knows. As it stands, nobody has any r…

Actually we do know one number :the total number of people in ICU is normal for this time of year. There are a handful of confirmed cases (I'm not sure if they are in ICU), but the total number of cases is still low. It is hindsight, but expontial grow means that despite not testing we didn't have a problem two months ago. Maybe we should have been in lock down a week ago, but anything sooner would be overreacting an…

It takes about 7 days after developing symptoms for the hospitalized cases to come in.

Most people who get sick think its a normal cold. They stay at home for a week, and when they can barely breath anymore, they finally enter the emergency room.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#573

Post by pmontra »

incompatible wrote: post #90
lbeltrame wrote: post #36

As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…

"China could afford to take the economical hit" The faster and better that you deal with it, the smaller the economic hit is going to be. China is going to be the big winner here.

Especially because they are in the position to help other countries now, when everybody else have to think only about their own citizens. They sent doctors to Italy with medical equipment (Italy sent some help to China earlier on) so they're going to take some credit for the recovery. Then there will be the real recovery. Western Europe was rebuilt with US money after WW2 and the USA consolidated an hegemony which is still lasting now. I bet that China will be more than willing to help in the next years.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#574

Post by toohotatopic »

feral wrote: post #192

I work as Principal ML Engineer, and did a little epidemic modeling in my ML PhD. I wrote an analysis of how this is going to hit Ireland, including the best calculations I could find on fatality rate: https://medium.com/@fergal.reid/predicting-the-impact-of-cor... I think that left unchecked this could kill millions of Americans in a couple of months. I'd love to be wrong.

>If that trajectory persists, and we don’t arrest it, in the 2 weeks closest to peak rate, we’ll have seen 75% of our cases emerge.

vs

>in a couple of months.

Why months? If there are 75% of the cases within 2 weeks, won't 75% of the deaths also occur within 2 weeks?

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#575

Post by sdkaufman »

lbeltrame wrote: post #36

As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…

> Why on Earth is this a good model?

Because it worked. Millions of lives have been saved - 1% of 1.3B is 13M people. That's 1/5 of Italy.

Are there better models? Maybe. But there are also much worse models, as I suspect we might soon find out in the US [1]. Personally I'd much rather take the Chinese model for the next few months than risk me and my family dying or going bankrupt over the next few months.

And, instead of thinking that China could "afford to take the economical hit", consider the economic impact of 13M people suddenly dying. At this point, there's definitely going to be a hit to the economy. It's just going to be either A) from stricter lock downs and government aid, or B) from more people dying due to overrun hospitals. It might not be a wash in terms of the dollar amount, but it's clear which option will save more lives.

[1] Comparing China and US response:

- China has made treatment (not just testing) for coronavirus free for everyone. In the US...better hope you have good insurance.

- Tests performed per million people: China 2,800, US 5

- China is ordering banks to increase loans to SMBs rather than hoarding cash to protect themselves. It has rolled out a bunch of policies to support SMBs and employees. The US...well, not much so far.

Sources: https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-many-coronavirus-tes... https://qz.com/1813181/china-is-taking-pleasure-in-us-mishan... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052474/c... https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-latest-regional-m...

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#576

Post by jmartinpetersen »

tomp wrote: post #233
fma wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. And where is Trump's response? We don't even have enough testing kits. We had 2 months to ramp things up.

At least he closed the borders. Russia as well. EU can't even do that.

Several EU countries have already closed or will be closing their sovereign borders in the next 24 hours. They can do that. They are doing it.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#577

Post by Haga »

coliveira wrote: post #198
zozbot234 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The very end of December" was 20+ days prior to the Wuhan lockdown, which was was essentially the only instance where China officially acknowledged the disease - before then, the local government was having police caution their doctors and scientists not to talk or "spread untrue rumors" about it. In the meantime, people in Wuhan and elsewhere were just hanging out as usual with no social distancing behaviors whatso…

People are very quick to blame Chinese officials, but I think they were correct in avoiding panic before knowing for sure the true dimensions of the problem they had at hand. The government has its credibility at stake: if you start using harsh measures without evidence, you lose credibility for the next time it is really needed.

[Citation needed] China is always great- according to China. And the WHO is saying it too.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#578

Post by cameldrv »

copperx wrote: post #564
cameldrv wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you cite a source? Current Chinese treatment guidelines allow it. Also very important to quantify side effect risks, even if it's a rough estimate. For example, if a 70 year old patient has already progressed to dyspena, they might have something like a 20% mortality rate from COVID. Even if there is a side effect profile for the treatment that normally would be considered very dangerous, it may be well worth it…

I can't find the original source, but you can easily verify that both drugs increase the QT/QTC and PR interval, which is a high-risk interaction AFAIK (I'm not a doctor). Some doctors recommend doing an EKG before administering Chloroquine. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088394412... What you're saying is true, but you're assuming that Chloroquine + Kaletra is better than Chloroquine by itself, a…

Thanks for the link. Current Chinese treatment guidelines are: https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/coronavirus-treatment-p...

They state:

4. Antiviral therapies: Interferon-alpha (adult: 5 million units or equivalent can be added to 2ml sterile injection water and delivered with a nebulizer twice daily), lopinavir/ritonavir (adult: 200mg/50mg/tablet, 2 tablets twice daily; the length of treatment should not exceed 10 days), ribavirin (recommended in combination with interferon or lopinavir/ritonavir, adult: 500mg twice or three times daily via IV, the length of treatment should not exceed 10 days), chloroquine phosphate (adult 18-65 years old weighing more than 50kg: 500mg twice daily for 7 days; bodyweight less than 50kg: 500mg twice daily for day 1 and 2, 500mg once daily for day 3 through 7); umifenovir (adult: 200mg three times daily; the length of treatment should not exceed 10 days).

Pay attention to issues such as adverse drug reactions, contraindications (for example, chloroquine should not be given to patients with heart diseases), and drug interactions. Further evaluate the efficacy of current treatment regimens in clinical applications. Using 3 or more antiviral drugs is not recommended. Corresponding medication should be discontinued should intolerable side effects appear.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#579

Post by sdkaufman »

solidasparagus wrote: post #551
sdkaufman wrote: post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather my job ceased to exist than my parents or grandparents. Because that's the choice we're making now as a society.

Easy to say when you don't seriously have to face your children becoming homeless. While it certainly isn't as dramatic as a pandemic, there are severe human consequences of completely shutting down the economy. I'm sure I don't need to repeat the stats that showcase how close to the edge much of America lives - 40 million Americans don't consistently have access to enough food[1]. 1 in 6 children don't have access t…

And there aren't severe human consequences from millions of people dying in the next few months? Easy to say when you don't seriously have to face the possibility of your parents and grandparents dying, I guess. Remember that the mortality rate for people 80+ is 1/7, which isn't far from a game of Russian roulette.

Plus, all the school districts that have shut down so far have continued to offer meals for students AFAIK.

Source: - https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death... - https://www.santaclarausd.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=3&D... - https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Bay-Area-school-closures...

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#580

Post by mft_ »

cknoxrun wrote: post #104
kyawzazaw wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just super curious. Do your startup employees need physical infrastructure or deal with super confidential data that require them to be on site? Do you not trust them the employees to work their part on their own?

They can work from home. But I'm learning from this thread, that being in a rather northern location where no one in the entire city has started working from home is not the norm. Again, it was only yesterday that the government gave any official guidance on travel or gatherings of people.

For so many reasons, selfish and not, you should target being ‘ahead of the curve’. Your government is not the oracle here. Later, you’ll be happy you acted earlier than others.

Move your employees to WFH now.

Ensure you all have the infrastructure at home to support being as effective as possible.

Post reply on HN