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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

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Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#451

Post by ChristianBundy »

thedance wrote: post #417
chongli wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way to test this is to ask random people the question: "The number of lily pads on a pond double every day. If it takes 20 days for the lily pads to completely cover the pond, how long does it take to cover half the pond?" I think you will be surprised by how many people say "10 days."

This is because most people are unable to suppress their reflexive response to being asked what's half of 20, not because people don't understand exponentiation.

Yes, the point being that linear halving is much more intuitive for most people than exponential halving. Even when you're told the doubling rate, your brain reaches for the wrong answer every time.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#452

Post by CriticalCathed »

hatenberg wrote: post #292
delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

>science discredited and ignored

There is a large faction of people in the USA who believe this a politically motivated hoax. This is the world we are living in. How can we vote in competent leaders when a large faction holds such strong influence?

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#453

Post by dmitriy_ko »

nodamage wrote: post #437
nullc wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go read HN comments from weeks and months ago, and see the posters encouraging prompt measures getting called paranoids. :) Now scale this up to the whole country and account for the fact that HN is probably a little better on average about reasoning about these things. But now, on HN now we're mostly preaching to the choir... I've been contacting the officials of my state and surrounding communities since February 2…

> Go read HN comments from weeks and months ago, and see the posters encouraging prompt measures getting called paranoids. Exactly. Two weeks ago every coronavirus thread on Hacker News was full of deniers claiming this was no worse than the flu and this was all just media hysteria. Some probably still hold that opinion. I don't think they will be convinced until the hospitals start overflowing.

Elon Musk was one of the deniers. You would think someone who "always starts with physics" would know better.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#454

Post by joe_the_user »

nodamage wrote: post #437
nullc wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go read HN comments from weeks and months ago, and see the posters encouraging prompt measures getting called paranoids. :) Now scale this up to the whole country and account for the fact that HN is probably a little better on average about reasoning about these things. But now, on HN now we're mostly preaching to the choir... I've been contacting the officials of my state and surrounding communities since February 2…

> Go read HN comments from weeks and months ago, and see the posters encouraging prompt measures getting called paranoids. Exactly. Two weeks ago every coronavirus thread on Hacker News was full of deniers claiming this was no worse than the flu and this was all just media hysteria. Some probably still hold that opinion. I don't think they will be convinced until the hospitals start overflowing.

Yeah,

When Coronavirus appeared in Wuhan, I tended to the opinion that it would self-limiting in one fashion or another or that is would not be worse than the flu. Only people arguing with me and me investigating the facts changed that. And, yeah, changing your opinion is hard and imagining a force that will upend the world is hard so it's easy to imagine how people stay in their positions.

That said, we have a representative government with the aim of electing people who will think ahead and protect from purely reflex based views. And clearly that control has failed.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#455

Post by hatenberg »

chongli wrote: post #326
hatenberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights. Science is supposed to mitigate the shortcomings of our natural intuitions and cognitive biases. The problem is that most people are not scientists. When a non-scientist is asked to trust a scientist, he or she is subj…

That may explain but certainly not excuse. We submit our individual freedoms to governments we vote for to be able to act better than our ingrained short term reflexes. Best and brightest and all.

It's also not necessarily an indictment of democracy- Taiwan clearly has been on the ball here. But it is absolutely an indictment of our current state of affairs in many western countries.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#456

Post by MaximumYComb »

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

Thank you for sharing. Your comment has highlighted the importance of making sure my household is prepared

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#457

Post by jiggawatts »

UncleMeat wrote: post #405
jiggawatts wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"nostromo", can I ask you to just do something for me? Open Excel. Or use a calculator and pen and paper. Start with the known number of confirmed patients in . Or just "100" to use nice round numbers. Whatever. It doesn't matter that much. Write out some rows like this: Date, Cases 2020-03-15, 100 -- today 2020-03-20, 200 2020-03-25, 400 2020-03-30, 800 ... Each row is 5 days apart, which is the typical slowest doub…

Why even have experts in epidemiology if everything is so simple? Just a few rows in excel! Done!

All epidemiologists agree with this. All of them. They've been making public statements to that effect and signing letters reiterating the urgency of the situation.

So what are you saying exactly? I don't understand what your point is!

I'm agreeing with the epidemiologists. Their maths checks out. It's the same maths as my maths. It's the same maths as everyone's maths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

The only people I hear disagreements from are people who don't know how to use a calculator, Or they do, but haven't bothered. Nonetheless, they seem to have lots of time argue online, dismissing logical, coherent, and factual arguments without making any defensible statements of their own.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#458

Post by newtoday »

pettycashstash2 wrote: post #448
newtoday wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US, no one cared about this until a few days ago. Now, some stores are getting low on food supplies, and people are posting about it. But, I was at a store today where they were completely stocked, and the only empty shelf was the toilet paper supply! It's insane.

What? I’m in New England tri state and started preparing 28 days ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22339369

That's cause you're smart, and read hN!

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#459

Post by cercatrova »

arvinsim wrote: post #386
cercatrova wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political leadership being self serving while convincing people that they are not has been true throughout history, and will continue to do so in the future. There is no way to stop this without modifying human nature itself. I cannot blame the voting populace, yet at the same time, I cannot blame the politicians either. They are part of a larger system of incentives.

Then perhaps we need a better version of democracy. Or a better system of government altogether. I am hopeful that human civilization and ingenuity can invent or discover that. I am just not confident that it would be anytime soon.

It's not just democracy, it includes all forms of human organization, whether it be democratic or dictatorial. I believe it will only change once we genetically engineer people to be less self serving. Barring that, I don't see how one can solve this problem.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#460

Post by newtoday »

dboreham wrote: post #420
newtoday wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US, no one cared about this until a few days ago. Now, some stores are getting low on food supplies, and people are posting about it. But, I was at a store today where they were completely stocked, and the only empty shelf was the toilet paper supply! It's insane.

Surely the hand sanitizer shelf was empty too?

Not empty at all, maybe a shipment came in, though.
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