441–450 of 740 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm in the US, no one cared about this until a few days ago. Now, some stores are getting low on food supplies, and people are posting about it. But, I was at a store today where they were completely stocked, and the only empty shelf was the toilet paper supply! It's insane.
Surely the hand sanitizer shelf was empty too?
Lockdown is not a long term solution though. This virus isn't going to disappear anytime soon. It might be good for countries that are getting out of control, but for places where it isn't a problem yet it just delays when it his. Places without a problem yet should take reasonable sustainable precautions to flatten the curve instead. ( https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ )
The virus still spreads in lockdown, just at a slower pace. We will likely see resurgences when the lockdown(s) are lifted, but the idea is to plan to do that when we can handle it.
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The USA is going to be in terrible shape very soon, just look at this as of tonight: https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1239004689338970113
Well, all these people consciously have chosen to fly at the time like this. It was clear that drastic travel disruption is imminent and chance of exposure is high on the plane, and yet they took the risk.
IE we should not allow people to take risks that are going impact all of society.
The virus has exploded the American myth that we can isolate individual behavior to individual rewards but also this myth means the country is going to seriously suffer.
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Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights. Science is supposed to mitigate the shortcomings of our natural intuitions and cognitive biases. The problem is that most people are not scientists. When a non-scientist is asked to trust a scientist, he or she is subj…
> Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. This layman has read that we intuitively think of numbers logarithmically, which makes him wonder if we human beings do, in fact, intuitively understand exponential growth. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-natural-log/
Exponential growth is like dynamite. It's absurdly fast, compared to anything people see in daily lives.
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> They already have a preliminary trial result in China that says Chloroquine works Chloroquine has a long history with many diseases of "sorta, but not really" working when subjected to actual test. Please don't spread unsubstantiated info.
This is not unsubstantiated. It is proven in vitro, and this came out the other day: http://news.southcn.com/nfplus/gdjktt/content/2020-03/09/con... I haven’t found the source paper if there is one yet — I can’t read Chinese except with google translate
Chloroquines have a long history of this in viral studies.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights. Science is supposed to mitigate the shortcomings of our natural intuitions and cognitive biases. The problem is that most people are not scientists. When a non-scientist is asked to trust a scientist, he or she is subj…
> Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. This layman has read that we intuitively think of numbers logarithmically, which makes him wonder if we human beings do, in fact, intuitively understand exponential growth. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-natural-log/
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights. Science is supposed to mitigate the shortcomings of our natural intuitions and cognitive biases. The problem is that most people are not scientists. When a non-scientist is asked to trust a scientist, he or she is subj…
Humans don’t understand exponential growth. But they could look at China and Italy and think - those guys are the same as us. We are not special. The same thing that is happening to them is going to happen unless we act now. The real sad part of all this is that this is simply human nature. And we are next gonna go down the same path with climate change. And then not even lock downs will help.
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The USA is going to be in terrible shape very soon, just look at this as of tonight: https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1239004689338970113
I'm in the US, no one cared about this until a few days ago. Now, some stores are getting low on food supplies, and people are posting about it. But, I was at a store today where they were completely stocked, and the only empty shelf was the toilet paper supply! It's insane.
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I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA. There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.
What's being done to fix the lack of tests in the USA? The CDC is headquartered in Atlanta. Where do the COVID-19 tests from them come from? Where are they manufactured, what ingredients do they require, how much do they cost to make, how long does it take to make them? What's the hold up on getting "unlimited" tests from the CDC? Do the tests even come from the CDC? How many are they producing a day? What are their…
[0] https://www.npr.org/2020/03/13/815522836/u-s-coronavirus-tes...
[1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/14/thermo-fisher-to-produce...
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It is fair to observe that the expertise here is math rather than medicine. However, epidemiologists have already made these predictions. Don't see any harm in signalling broader academic support. Particularly not since none of the signatories could plausibly be accused of exaggerating the danger, in order to extract grant money. As goes the usual cynical claim of innumerate science-deniers.
This article claims that “lockdown” is the best way to stop the virus, then says that South Korea and China are the examples to follow. It claims that Korea has made a lockdown. South Korea has, at no point, made anything close to the country-wide “lockdown” we’re seeing in parts of Europe. Korea’s reaction is amongst the most successful in the world, and involves contact tracing and isolation of the sick. When they…
Path 2 is you fuck it up and Covid-19 is running rampant through your entire population. Of course at this point closing borders and contact tracing is 100% pointless. It's in this environment where lockdown is the only way you can accomplish anything.