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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

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Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#401

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

bluGill wrote: post #299
StudentStuff wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The spread may appear low in your city, but how much of that is from lack of testing? If your employees can work from home, it is best for you to implement work from home ASAP. Businesses in Washington State have shuttered or gone to work from home over the last 3 weeks, had most businesses made this change earlier(eg: at the beginning of those 3 weeks) we would see much less spread and quicker easing of restrictions…

Hospital ICU units are not overwhelmed which puts a limit to total infections. (unless this is now less deadly I guess, an unlike win though)

> "Hospital ICU units are not overwhelmed which puts a limit to total infections."

I wouldn't say that; reports coming out of Seattle look pretty grim.

"...Reports from the Seattle area, the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, indicate that some of the city’s hospitals are nearly overwhelmed. One hospital’s note to staff, shared with New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, says the “local COVID-19 trajectory is likely to be similar to that of Northern Italy.” The hospital is down to a four-day supply of gloves..."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-hospital-wor...

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#402

Post by copperx »

cameldrv wrote: post #325
graeme wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has a lot to do with their age distribution. Their fatality rate by age is similar to elsewhere. A large fraction of the infected cult members were young. Korea also hasn’t had any hospital breakdown related increase in the death rate. Chloroquine may indeed work, but the Korean stats are misleading if you don’t adjust for ages.

China’s fatality rate is also way down. Partly of course from less stress on the medical system, but they’ve also just learned a lot about how to treat it, particularly what drugs to use. I believe Chloroquine + Liponavir/Ritanovir + Interferon or Ribavirin is state of the art.

Chloroquine + Liponavir/Ritanovir may cause fatal arrithmias, in the case anyone out there is self medicating. It's one or the other.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#403

Post by throw7 »

It's too late for the U.S. There isn't a clear, organized, unified direction of testing and action plan for all humans within its borders. That's the only way to get and organize an effective response.

We're canceling/closing off large groupings of humans and basically hoping/praying? for the best for the next few weeks. It's sad. This type of haphazard response drives conspiracies and confusion that is then opportunistically taken advantage of by all sectors of power.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#404

Post by solidasparagus »

CydeWeys wrote: post #367
fattire wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaving aside the fact that here in the US tests are literally not happening on an epic scale that will be the subject of numerous investigations, hearings (, and prosecutions?) in the years to come. And forget that even if we had legit numbers, those numbers we can see are a tip of the iceberg, representing at most 20% of the actual more-serious cases. Put that all aside. Remember-- the numbers we see now are a look…

> If it is possible, STAY HOME. People need to stay home, period. Unless you work in healthcare, a grocery store, or some essential service, or are going to one of the same, you need to stay home. I know there's lots of reasons people aren't staying home yet, like they don't have paid sick leave, but still, none of this overrides the sheer importance of stopping the pandemic. So the phrasing should be "Stay home, per…

I wonder if you'd be so absolute if this meant your job ceasing to exist.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#405

Post by UncleMeat »

jiggawatts wrote: post #263
nostromo wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a certainty. Are you an epidemiologist?

"nostromo", can I ask you to just do something for me? Open Excel. Or use a calculator and pen and paper. Start with the known number of confirmed patients in . Or just "100" to use nice round numbers. Whatever. It doesn't matter that much. Write out some rows like this: Date, Cases 2020-03-15, 100 -- today 2020-03-20, 200 2020-03-25, 400 2020-03-30, 800 ... Each row is 5 days apart, which is the typical slowest doub…

Why even have experts in epidemiology if everything is so simple? Just a few rows in excel! Done!

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#406

Post by newtoday »

on_and_off wrote: post #151
delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA. There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.

I'd say we are late and in the 100s of thousands of cases that are untested.

Edit: others seem to feel the same. See epistatis' comment

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#407

Post by fattire »

CydeWeys wrote: post #367
fattire wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaving aside the fact that here in the US tests are literally not happening on an epic scale that will be the subject of numerous investigations, hearings (, and prosecutions?) in the years to come. And forget that even if we had legit numbers, those numbers we can see are a tip of the iceberg, representing at most 20% of the actual more-serious cases. Put that all aside. Remember-- the numbers we see now are a look…

> If it is possible, STAY HOME. People need to stay home, period. Unless you work in healthcare, a grocery store, or some essential service, or are going to one of the same, you need to stay home. I know there's lots of reasons people aren't staying home yet, like they don't have paid sick leave, but still, none of this overrides the sheer importance of stopping the pandemic. So the phrasing should be "Stay home, per…

I initially had said simply "STAY HOME", but it's just not possible/advised for people in situations such as the ones you mention.

But your point is right. "If possible" means "unless it's absolutely essential for your survival or the survival of others".

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#408

Post by fattire »

solidasparagus wrote: post #404
CydeWeys wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it is possible, STAY HOME. People need to stay home, period. Unless you work in healthcare, a grocery store, or some essential service, or are going to one of the same, you need to stay home. I know there's lots of reasons people aren't staying home yet, like they don't have paid sick leave, but still, none of this overrides the sheer importance of stopping the pandemic. So the phrasing should be "Stay home, per…

I wonder if you'd be so absolute if this meant your job ceasing to exist.

Yes, it's a risk vs. benefit calculation where the risk is very very high. And not only risk to yourself but risk to others...

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#409

Post by seles »

Lockdown is not a long term solution though. This virus isn't going to disappear anytime soon. It might be good for countries that are getting out of control, but for places where it isn't a problem yet it just delays when it his.

Places without a problem yet should take reasonable sustainable precautions to flatten the curve instead. (https://www.flattenthecurve.com/)

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#410

Post by VectorLock »

tom_ wrote: post #188
VectorLock wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate you owning up to your myopic short comings and hopefully you'll correct that course before those that have hitched their carts to your wagon feel the ramifications.

Perhaps you should ask those people how they feel too! Still, if there's a problem, perhaps they can get a ride on your high horse?

I'll be sure to keep an eye out for this company if we ever cross paths, from my high horse.
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