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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

left.it

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Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#151

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA.

There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#152
post #25

As a physicist, it still feels odd to me they are talking about statistics with such confidence here. It seems only SK has earned that right and has tested enough people to get reliable statistics. If you only measure the sick in the hospital...

As someone who's dealing with analytics data regularely, thank you ! i absolutely don't understand how can someone give any ratio about this disease knowing how only the most severe cases got tested ( except in SK), and that the symptoms are almost undistinguisable from the flu.

It simply must be much more dangerous than the flu for the simple reason that comparatively few people have it and it is overwhelming hospitals.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding? You should have implemented WoH weeks ago. Thinking whether or not doing it now is a disservice to all humanity and a testament of why we have reached this situation as a society.

The first case only just made its way to our city a couple of days ago. We have been rather distracted of course by getting signatures and cheques. For context, our schools and daycares are still open, as are city rec centers, gyms, and public transit. Only yesterday did the province recommend no gatherings over 250 people. Perhaps we should have been quicker, but here we are.

> The first case only just made its way to our city a couple of days ago.

The first tested case. Given the delay between onset and diagnosis, + amounts of tests being actually done, + the couple days you mention, you may as well have over a thousand infected people in your city now, and you won't know until a) more tests start being made, or b) some of these people will start getting hospitalized in the next couple of days.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding? You should have implemented WoH weeks ago. Thinking whether or not doing it now is a disservice to all humanity and a testament of why we have reached this situation as a society.

The first case only just made its way to our city a couple of days ago. We have been rather distracted of course by getting signatures and cheques. For context, our schools and daycares are still open, as are city rec centers, gyms, and public transit. Only yesterday did the province recommend no gatherings over 250 people. Perhaps we should have been quicker, but here we are.

Only 150 cases in AU at the time Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson got it. Only a thousand in the US when two NBA players got it. Only 150 in Canada when the Prime Minister's wife got it. Only 150 cases in Brazil when the press secretary got it.

These people certainly have more exposure to other humans than most people do. But not so much that they should be making up whole percentages of the infected population. I believe they are just well connected and wealthy and it's easier for them to get tested.

You can't have confirmed cases without testing. I've come to believe these confirmed case numbers may be having a negative effect on our understanding of the situation.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we need more panic. Maximum panic please! For a disease that has a 0.5% fatality rate, and the medium death age is over the average life expectancy of one's country. And most scientists believe we can't stop it anyway. Yes, let's burn down the modern world and suspend all civil rights for this.

Yes we should be so flippant about hundreds of thousands of people dead. How dare you ask me to sacrifice going to a restaurant for that?

For you it's not eating out.

For working families it's losing their jobs, their healthcare, and their housing because a bunch of healthy young people, that are facing almost no risk, are afraid to leave their apartments.

In Seattle we're one week into this and 50+ restaurants have closed and hundreds of jobs have been lost. Those people can't pay rent and now have no healthcare.

That's one week. In one month it'll be much worse.

By the way, you can prevent a malaria death for about $50 in Africa. It kills 500,000 people a year. How many dinners have you sacrificed to save those lives, personally?

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#156

My co-founder and I are really struggling with the decisions ahead of us. We feel we should act quickly, and enforce our team to work from home, but the spread in our city is quite low for now. We also wonder how long this can go on, are we going to be isolated for months? We are at a critical point where we have just closed our seed round this past week. We have both put so much energy and time into this moment and…

I'm in the same position. More than a week ago I wrote an all-hands email to ensure that people realize that if they can work from home they should work from home and that we'd never force them to travel or be in the office if they do not want to and do not feel that it is in their best interest to do so. And of course it goes without saying that any indication of cold or flu like symptoms should cause someone to stay home.

As a co-founder/CEO of any company your first responsibility is for the health of your employees and those that depend on them. If you play games with that then you should not be in a leadership position to begin with.

Here is the full text of our email, feel free to C&P:

   As you are no doubt aware there is a virus on the loose
   and it isn't pretty.

   The better ways to acquire it are to spend some time with 
   a bunch of total strangers in close confinement sharing
   each others air. This includes all forms of public
   transport.

   These are exceptional (hopefully!) circumstances and I want to 
   make several things perfectly clear:

   (1) You do not have to travel if you do not want to,
     there is no obligation to participate in any of 
     the jobs in the next coming weeks/months and
     not participating will *never* be held against 
     you in any form. You may opt to participate 
     remotely instead of on-site without financial 
     penalty.

   (2) If you do travel, please take all precautions
     possible to avoid getting ill, I'd really hate 
     myself if it turns out that we caused people to 
     fall ill (or worse) on account of the work we do, 
     your health comes first, always.

   (3) There is a lot of misinformation going around, 
     some of it - unfortunately - spread by authorities 
     that really should know better. The current figures
     are - to the best of my knowledge - 2-3% mortality 
     rate and an R0 (the rate at which the disease 
     spreads) of about 3. This makes this virus between  
     20 and 90 times more dangerous than the seasonal 
     flu, which has a .1% mortality rate and an R0 of 
     about 0.7-1.

   (4) If you decide to participate but not in person 
     then we should enable video conferencing to do some 
     of the interviews, these should focus on the people
     lower in the food chain at the companies we look at.

    Please let us know your preference in time, talk to
    Marco to ensure he is aware of what will happen so
    that we can communicate it to the customers and the
    targets alike.

   (5) The virus outbreak is still in its early days, the
     situation is *extremely* fluid, and you should make 
     an effort to stay informed and adapt your plans 
     immediately if you feel the situation warrants it.
     Please do communicate any such changes.

    Best regards, and please stay safe,
This was sent on Feb. 28th.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are not anywhere near the point where the panic of this virus is worse than the potential outcome of the virus. If anything there is not ENOUGH strong movement being made.

Yes, we need more panic. Maximum panic please! For a disease that has a 0.5% fatality rate, and the medium death age is over the average life expectancy of one's country. And most scientists believe we can't stop it anyway. Yes, let's burn down the modern world and suspend all civil rights for this.

0.5% is a textbook number, not the sorry-the-hospital-is-full number, which has in some places been closer to 5%.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#158
post #93
post #37

Maybe Italy is a worst case, both because it didn't quarantine early enough, and because greater population inversion. > It's now a well-established fact that older people and those with underlying health issues are more susceptible to succumbing to Covid-19. With 23 percent Italians aged 65 or above and a median age of 47.3, the Italian population is the oldest in Europe. This is chiefly responsible for the high fat…

Italy isn't the worst case, they're just 2 weeks' ahead of most other countries. Looking at the latest SitRep from WHO, my home country (Sweden) has small no. infected (775), but grew 25% vs the previous day. If that rate keeps up, number of infected will keep on doubling every 4-5 days and in 14 days' time will be at what Italy is today (17k infected). And then another week later it'll break 100k. Exponential growth…

In Sweden we've avoided testing people who haven't been in high risk areas, and moved from that to only testing 'risk groups' (elderly and with preexisting conditions), so the numbers shouldn't be seen as reflective of the total number of infected.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#159
post #4

Not sure why this is on the number 1 spot currently. This is a letter signed by non-experts (albeit sometimes scientists/engineers). To me, it comes off as the climate-change denier letters or 9/11 "truthers" letters. Please let the experts do their job. Don't spread uninformed opinions backed up by Facebook posts and panicked researchers with expertise "relevant to virus spreading" such as electronics, architecture…

they did the same thing with slaughterbots when deep learning was making the news.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#160
The fact that growth rates seem very similar in all affected countries, baffles me. Surely lifestyles, social structure (number of families/kids etc.), hygiene habits differ slightly and testing rates/effectiveness of the health system varies greatly among them. If these factors aren't important, does social life even matter? The effectiveness of China's lockdown is a good argument for it, but perhaps they were just more effective at identifying and isolating spreaders? My point is that there's a chance that it spreads through the air or in some other way unaffected by curfews etc. (if you leave the windows open...).
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