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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

left.it

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Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#51
This is not "from Italy", it's been organized by a far-left Italian magazine. Yes, they are "from Italy", but the title is disingenuous and misleading.

Note that the page lists "the editors" (of the magazine) as the authors, and the first signature is by the magazine's publisher. The rest appear to be various academic personalities they have reached out to, many of them not from Italy or in Italy.

As for the contents, I don't necessarily disagree with the advice, but this letter is not particularly well written, nor particularly authoritative.

For example, this section:

> The beginning of the outbreak had the exact same number of infections in China, Italy, and other countries. The difference is that China strongly and quickly locked down Wuhan and all of the Hubei region 8 days before Italy [3].

This is an exceedingly poor phrasing, almost seeming to suggest that the outbreak started with a few cases everywhere in the world at the same time. Inadvertently or not, this dovetails with China's PR push trying to claim that the epidemic may not have started there (something that is readily disproven by all epidemiological and genetic evidence).

Even setting aside the potential for confusion, the claim on its face is clearly baseless. Maybe the outbreak started with ten people getting infected in the Wuhan wet market on the same day (if we go by the wet market theory), while in Italy it started with a single infected person entering the country. Or, vice versa, maybe in China it started from a single infected person, and in Italy it was brought in by ten different people carrying it into the country separately. Who's to say?

At any rate, if you look at the source for that claim, you can see that it is shifting the timelines to align at some particular point in the outbreak, and it is comparing the time from that point when China imposed the Wuhan lockdown with the time when Italy imposed the whole-country lockdown.

The source is certainly more interesting, and gives a better picture of the situation than the letter does (although we have seen similar and better analyses in English for a while). However, the "8 days" figure is somewhat arbitrary. For example, Italy imposed a partial lockdown on the areas of the country where individual cases were found days before they shifted to a whole-country lockdown. Maybe that date should have been compared instead?

By the best information currently available, the first case in Italy came from a person who was infected in Germany. According to the letter's claim, the outbreak starts with "the exact same number of infections" (one, presumably), and then grows at the same speed. But then Germany's timeline should be ahead of Italy, yet it's not.

Then there is the elephant in the room, of course. If you cannot rely on China's lockdown to contain the infection, then the rational and prudent thing to do was not to wait for outbreaks in other countries and impose lockdowns there. It was to restrict and heavily control international travel (cancel flights, test all passengers, force visitors to quarantine, etc.). Would that have been accepted by the public? Would that have been accepted by the authors of this letter?

tl;dr: title is grossly misleading, please correct.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#52

Just from the start already i dont get a scientific feeling. "In just 3 weeks from the beginning of the outbreak, the virus has reached more than 10.000 infected people." Does this mean only tested 10.000 people? Reads a bit odd though too, i assume they were not infected already when the virus reached them? "From our data, about 10% of patients require ICU (Intensive Care Unit) or sub ICU assistance and about 5% of…

> 10% of all people that got the virus?

This one. FTR, there's an additional 5% from this 10%, IIRC, which experiences multi-organ failure and dies within a few days.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#53

As a physicist, it still feels odd to me they are talking about statistics with such confidence here. It seems only SK has earned that right and has tested enough people to get reliable statistics. If you only measure the sick in the hospital...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

Start reading at "2. What Will Happen When These Coronavirus Cases Materialize?"

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#55

My co-founder and I are really struggling with the decisions ahead of us. We feel we should act quickly, and enforce our team to work from home, but the spread in our city is quite low for now. We also wonder how long this can go on, are we going to be isolated for months? We are at a critical point where we have just closed our seed round this past week. We have both put so much energy and time into this moment and…

[deleted]

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding? You should have implemented WoH weeks ago. Thinking whether or not doing it now is a disservice to all humanity and a testament of why we have reached this situation as a society.

The first case only just made its way to our city a couple of days ago. We have been rather distracted of course by getting signatures and cheques. For context, our schools and daycares are still open, as are city rec centers, gyms, and public transit. Only yesterday did the province recommend no gatherings over 250 people. Perhaps we should have been quicker, but here we are.

That doesn't bode well that you're so focused on getting checks that you've completely failed to observe the world around you.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#57
post #37

Maybe Italy is a worst case, both because it didn't quarantine early enough, and because greater population inversion. > It's now a well-established fact that older people and those with underlying health issues are more susceptible to succumbing to Covid-19. With 23 percent Italians aged 65 or above and a median age of 47.3, the Italian population is the oldest in Europe. This is chiefly responsible for the high fat…

Italy may be a worst case, but we haven't seen the worst from it yet.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#58
post #25

As a physicist, it still feels odd to me they are talking about statistics with such confidence here. It seems only SK has earned that right and has tested enough people to get reliable statistics. If you only measure the sick in the hospital...

As someone who's dealing with analytics data regularely, thank you ! i absolutely don't understand how can someone give any ratio about this disease knowing how only the most severe cases got tested ( except in SK), and that the symptoms are almost undistinguisable from the flu.

What do you think of the practice of only testing people who need hospital-level care and people who had contact with confirmed covid-19 patients (and people who traveled to at risk regions)?

I would think that this can only give you the infected from a few clusters and you can be surprised by an unknown cluster of patients suddenly needing intensive care.

Edit: And due to the long incubation period, that cluster can be quite large.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#59
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there's any realistic situation that would justify caving to the isolationism and xenophobia that's been pushed by the Trump administration for the last four years.

Are you making a parallel between isolate yourself to not catch and spread a disease with "isolationism and xenophobia"? I sure hope you (and people in general) can separate the 2 concepts or we're really doomed.

[deleted]

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#60

As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. It could do that because it could afford to take the economical hit and because it is an authoritarian state, which means you can get almost everyone to obey, in one way or another. Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the w…

Just like China, there was a time when Italy had 1 case, then 2 cases, then 4, etc. Italy was unable to stop the spread before reaching a huge level and spreading to other countries. Why blame China for "allowing this virus to spread all around the world" when Italy allowed the same? (Italy even had a warning that it was coming!)

If it did indeed come from live animals in a wet market, that seems like a potential valid reason for some criticism, although the they did a superb job adapting imho.
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