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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#181

Post by pmontra »

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

A more cynical question: can a PM win the next elections or politically survive the next weeks if a lot of people die and he just shrugged his shoulders, when the rest of the world did their best to keep people alive, successfully or not? I bet he'll have to change course pretty soon.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#182

Post by beaunative »

beaunative wrote: post #85

It looks like to me just a comfort pill for the public. They basically acknowledged that they can't handle the crisis already. So what they gonna do? They want it to appear to be an advice from expert, to persuade the public, rationalize a forced decision. The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of n…

I find one argument supports the delaying tactic is that lockdown won't work especially troubling: because you are eventually going to lift it, it won't work. Here's thing, it's always a matter of when, not never.

Lockdowns are to buy time for vaccination. That will be the optimal solution. Unfortunately, the time when the vaccination will arrive is unclear, at the earliest time expected is 6 months, but it will more likely to take more than a year. New treatment method are also being tested, like make use of blood from those who have recovered (Apparently I do not mean to drink those like vampires do). The UK government may think it will take much longer fo find effective treatment or vaccination.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#183

Post by [deleted] »

haunter wrote: post #133
mattmanser wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This clip of the political sitcom Yes Minister from the 1980s is making the rounds on our social media, as it explains that thought process succinctly, and hilariously: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qNjFIwRYEIo

What's the title of the show? :D

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#184

Post by enraged_camel »

arcticbull wrote: post #158
aberoham wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^^ 2000% this, a large proportion can't change their ways, is not paying attention or simply doesn't care. It's shocking to still tonight walk past a packed pub on a Saturday night

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

This is very wrong. While you yourself may not have contact with old people, you can still act as a vector and spread it to someone who does.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#185

Post by patrec »

Animats wrote: post #118
beaunative wrote: post #85

It looks like to me just a comfort pill for the public. They basically acknowledged that they can't handle the crisis already. So what they gonna do? They want it to appear to be an advice from expert, to persuade the public, rationalize a forced decision. The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of n…

The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of near-absolute lockdown of a country, It might lead to total breakdown of the economy, full-recession, and that may cost more lives anyway. And so begins the Great Reaping. Get rid of the old and the sick, so the nation can move on, freed of the burden of car…

The problem is they might reap much more than intended. I'd really like to see estimates of how many economically productive members of society will get caught out by the fact that sadly they can't have life-saving treatment after an accident (or will get a nasty covid infection post-op) because the health system shut down for weeks/months or gets permanently gimped (if it kills off or traumatizes enough doctors and nurses).

Also, what are the chances nearly all of the recovered infected are in near mint condition post-recovery? If it turns out non-trivial numbers now have permanently reduced lung capacity or pregnant women produce a lot of wonky babies, what then?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#186

Post by arcticbull »

enraged_camel wrote: post #184
arcticbull wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'm 30, have no contact with folks over 65, have no co-morbid conditions and so I have no reason to keep away from folks. I'm at zero risk. In fact if I get it now and develop an immunity, all the better. I have to assume the same is true of the folks at the pub -- otherwise it's them who are being irresponsible, not me.

This is very wrong. While you yourself may not have contact with old people, you can still act as a vector and spread it to someone who does.

Indeed, which is why it's on them not to go out. So long as nobody who has contact with old folks goes out, we're basically doing the UK plan ad-hoc. The rule shouldn't be "nobody go out" the rule should be "nobody with exposure to the vulnerable should go out" -- and if they do, they're being totally irresponsible.

I, however, am not, and I'm supporting the local economy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#188

Post by MaxBarraclough »

dirtnugget wrote: post #95
tyteen4a03 wrote: post #80

Is there even conclusive proof that people can be immune from the virus after being infected?

I think I even heard of people getting re-infected after having been cured

Opinions vary. Dr. Amesh Adalja is an infectious disease specialist, who thinks it's more likely that this isn't the case, and that it was just the impression given by false-negatives from the tests. (That is, if you test someone 3 times over 3 weeks, and see Infected, Uninfected, Infected, it could either be a false negative, or a reinfection.)

I'm afraid I don't have a written source, I heard it in this interview podcast: https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#189

Post by Neil44 »

simonh wrote: post #31

I’m going to try and lay out the case in as neutral terms as I can, although to be clear I think they are probably right. They’re going to take an awful lot of stick for it though, and indeed already are. They believe that there are basically two mitigation strategies. One is to have a very drastic early lockdown that shuts down the virus before it spreads widely. The problem with that is, once you lift the lockdown…

I believe the current UK Gov’s huge majority and long remaining term allow them to make decisions that many other countries would not be able to make at this time. I think they’re right, not that this makes things any easier, both my parents are in their mid 70’s and have health problems.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#190

Post by another-dave »

OJFord wrote: post #172
throwaway936482 wrote: post #94

This strategy is not insane only if there is also a concerted effort to protect those who are vulnerable while the virus spreads. The problem is there isn't one. At all. None. Zip. Zero. Some care homes are, off their own back, banning visitors but apart from that the old and the vulnerable are not being asked to self isolate or engage in social distancing, only those who have symptoms themselves are being told to se…

> only those who have symptoms [...] Where 'symptoms' includes 'a cough'; not just definitely-COVID-19 symptoms. > [...] themselves are being told to self isolate, and not members of their households. That's not true.

From the Guardian on Thurs, quoting Boris Johnson:

“At some point in the next few weeks we are likely to go further, and if someone in a household has those symptoms then we will be asking everyone in that household to stay at home. I want to signal now that this is coming down the track.”

— https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-moves-to-de...

Which would suggest that's not the advice currently. Would be interested to see anything counter to that though if you've links.

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