Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#51

Post by mnl » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:56 PM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #44

mnl wrote: post #29

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

Doing what someone else does, but a week later doesn't necesarily mean you made a mistake, or that you are a week late in making a decision.

I think it does, you don't wait a week to put out a fire, it gets worse. China has essentially contained it already. Maybe alternating lockdowns and releases we might be able to keep it manageable until there's a vaccine.

This is not hard to model once there are a few cases in a population, again IMO.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#52

Post by jrandm » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:56 PM UTC

Here is a link to the Coronavirus Action Plan on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-actio...

I would suggest anyone read this and other official publications before any Twitter thread to understand the UK government's approach to the virus. Large, complex decisions are hopefully not made off of a few hundred word summary of the situation.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#53

Post by CaptArmchair » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:58 PM UTC

ChainsawTom wrote: post #14

The government isn't going with a herd immunity strategy. It's waiting for the most impactful time to lockdown.

The primary reason why other countries go into a lockdown is to prevent their strained healthcare systems from collapsing.

It's not just sick people who can't get a hospital bed. It's everyone else too. People who get heart attacks, strokes, accidents, other illnesses,...

A lock down is NOT meant to stop the virus in its tracks. It's meant to slow the infection rate and avoid hospitals and health care centers from getting swamped.

Any chart about China and Italy published thus far shows how the infection rate thus far grows exponentially. As such, the most impactful time to perform a lock down isn't next week or in 10 days. It is NOW.

The "herd immunity" strategy isn't a strategy. By the time this is over, the population will have achieved "herd immunity" regardless of how this will have played out. What matters is where we would like society to end up 6 months down the line: a relatively preserved, functional society with low mortality; or a dysfunctional one where likely anyone of this forum will have lost loved ones.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#54

Post by haunter » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:02 PM UTC

I like tomp's comment from a few days ago, feels like the UK playing a game theory https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22555643

1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected

2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted out

3) pandemic, no action -> government was "wrong", caused loss of lives and damaged the economy -> voted out

4) pandemic, action - this is the trickiest scenario, so let's consider two options:

4a) pandemic, action, it works -> government was "right", saved lives, spared the economy -> reelected

4b) pandemic, action, doesn't work -> government was "wrong", their actions failed, they're incompetent -> voted out

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#55

Post by alkonaut » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:06 PM UTC

mnl wrote: post #51

alkonaut wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doing what someone else does, but a week later doesn't necesarily mean you made a mistake, or that you are a week late in making a decision.

I think it does, you don't wait a week to put out a fire, it gets worse. China has essentially contained it already. Maybe alternating lockdowns and releases we might be able to keep it manageable until there's a vaccine. This is not hard to model once there are a few cases in a population, again IMO.

> you don't wait a week to put out a fire, it gets worse

I don't think putting out a fire has any major adverse effects, so perhaps not the best comparison.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#56

Post by snopie » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:14 PM UTC

happierlook wrote: post #25

richk449 wrote: post #21

I wonder how much of it is just playing the odds. Shutting everything down will very likely have a large, but fixed consequence on the economy, which has huge cost, including in lives and health. Whereas biding your time increases the relatively small risk of catastrophic consequences from coronavirus, but avoids the economic consequences. So it comes down to a choice between accepting a known downside, or taking a g…

> through very little fault of his own https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ Get out of here with this. We had expert teams and processes in place to combat the possibility of this exact thing and his administration fired them without any replacement. The virus existing is not his fault, but nearly all of the national consequences rest directly at his feet.

Snopes stopped being a reliable source a long time ago, if they ever were. They give one-sided versions for obviously political reasons.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#57

Post by anigbrowl » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:15 PM UTC

Scientifically, yes. Politically, suicide.

Herd immunity is what you hope for once the infection has gone through the population. To the extent that they try to build it by telling people they must be infected with it (questionable, and arguably a misinterpretation of public statements) it will be perceived as an attempt to cull the lower classes for the benefit of the ruling ones.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#58

Post by dang » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:16 PM UTC

blowski wrote: post #37

To be honest, I don’t think this kind of conversation is worthwhile on HN. There are very few facts here, just opinions. I’m all for posting authoritative information, and interesting side-effects. But just shooting around opinions is best left for Twitter, Facebook, Reddit.

The dividing line for what's on topic on HN not fact vs. opinion, it's intellectual curiosity (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html). That doesn't limit itself to authoritative information, by definition.

Speculation is inevitable. The question is whether it's curious (thoughtful and fresh) or uncurious (reflexive and predictable).

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#59

Post by simonw » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:17 PM UTC

jrandm wrote: post #52

Here is a link to the Coronavirus Action Plan on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-actio... I would suggest anyone read this and other official publications before any Twitter thread to understand the UK government's approach to the virus. Large, complex decisions are hopefully not made off of a few hundred word summary of the situation.

That document says "Published 3 March 2020" - do you know if it still reflects current government thinking?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#60

Post by christkv » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:19 PM UTC

stefano wrote: post #33

One region of Italy is close to their ICU beds limit, despite a full lockdown. And they have more beds per person than the UK. Without a full lockdown, won't they run out of beds very quickly, thus increasing the death rate a lot?

Yes the model they operate on is around 40% of the population will get this. Even with a lower real death rate of say 1% that still leaves over 250k people dead.