Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 772 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#21

Post by richk449 »

I wonder how much of it is just playing the odds. Shutting everything down will very likely have a large, but fixed consequence on the economy, which has huge cost, including in lives and health. Whereas biding your time increases the relatively small risk of catastrophic consequences from coronavirus, but avoids the economic consequences. So it comes down to a choice between accepting a known downside, or taking a gamble on a path with the possibility of very little downside, but also much larger worst-case downside. Leaving the expected values of the choices aside, maybe Boris just likes to roll the dice?

There are other considerations, like how well the president/prime minister’s incentives are aligned with the countries. Donald Trump, through very little fault of his own[1], faces the possibility of a failed presidency due to the economic consequences of shutdown. If possible, a president might think it worth swinging for the fences, if he is down a couple of runs in the ninth? If he strikes out, he is no worse than before, although the country is. And Boris has kinda made himself out to be a guy who tries for home runs, at least in his public persona.

There is also the game theoretic considerations on the country level. If all the other countries are doing everything to stop the spread and paying the economic cost, than U.K. can take the benefit of that sacrifice, and not crash it’s own economy.

[1] of course he is doing his best to compound the external factors.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#22

Post by Theodores »

From a PR point of view this is not a clever move. The very phrase 'herd immunity' says a lot about what they think of people. It is also a highly memorable phrase, much like 'shock and awe' and sometimes you just don't need a 'marketing slogan' for something divisive.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#24

Post by _bxg1 »

richk449 wrote: post #21

I wonder how much of it is just playing the odds. Shutting everything down will very likely have a large, but fixed consequence on the economy, which has huge cost, including in lives and health. Whereas biding your time increases the relatively small risk of catastrophic consequences from coronavirus, but avoids the economic consequences. So it comes down to a choice between accepting a known downside, or taking a g…

All of this ignores the moral aspect of sacrificing human lives at the feet of the economy. And, to be fair, it's totally plausible that said leaders are themselves ignoring the moral aspect. But it does matter when we judge them on the actions they decided to take (or not take).

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#25

Post by happierlook »

richk449 wrote: post #21

I wonder how much of it is just playing the odds. Shutting everything down will very likely have a large, but fixed consequence on the economy, which has huge cost, including in lives and health. Whereas biding your time increases the relatively small risk of catastrophic consequences from coronavirus, but avoids the economic consequences. So it comes down to a choice between accepting a known downside, or taking a g…

> through very little fault of his own

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

Get out of here with this. We had expert teams and processes in place to combat the possibility of this exact thing and his administration fired them without any replacement.

The virus existing is not his fault, but nearly all of the national consequences rest directly at his feet.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#27

Post by richk449 »

happierlook wrote: post #25
richk449 wrote: post #21

I wonder how much of it is just playing the odds. Shutting everything down will very likely have a large, but fixed consequence on the economy, which has huge cost, including in lives and health. Whereas biding your time increases the relatively small risk of catastrophic consequences from coronavirus, but avoids the economic consequences. So it comes down to a choice between accepting a known downside, or taking a g…

> through very little fault of his own https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ Get out of here with this. We had expert teams and processes in place to combat the possibility of this exact thing and his administration fired them without any replacement. The virus existing is not his fault, but nearly all of the national consequences rest directly at his feet.

I worded it that way because I think that even if he had done everything right, his re-election would still be in trouble because of factors outside of his control.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#28

Post by jblow »

Theodores wrote: post #22

From a PR point of view this is not a clever move. The very phrase 'herd immunity' says a lot about what they think of people. It is also a highly memorable phrase, much like 'shock and awe' and sometimes you just don't need a 'marketing slogan' for something divisive.

It's a technical term.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#29

Post by mnl »

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days.

They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#30

Post by SEMW »

Theodores wrote: post #22

From a PR point of view this is not a clever move. The very phrase 'herd immunity' says a lot about what they think of people. It is also a highly memorable phrase, much like 'shock and awe' and sometimes you just don't need a 'marketing slogan' for something divisive.

> The very phrase 'herd immunity' says a lot about what they think of people

...You know they didn't invent the phrase, right? It's a term of art, and has been the standard term for that epidemiological concept for many decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Post reply on HN