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MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

messari.io

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Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#41
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more complicated. Their collateral ratio has dropped below the liquidation level of 150%. So at best they would only get a fraction of their collateral back (any liquidation has a discount and a 13% penalty) - fundamentally they lost because their speculative bet didn't pay off. So yes, they lost more than they should, but describing it like they lost everything because of the liquidation problem alone is mislea…

> never going to repeat again So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders. My understanding is that in this case there were other bidders but they were drowned out by the winning bidder paying much more gas.

>So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders.

A mining cartel that censors transactions is indeed a real risk. Fortunately, ethereum is switching to PoS where even an average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, as opposed to multiple megawatt (or even giga) mining farms, so it's only a temporary issue.

>My understanding is that in this case there were other bidders but they were drowned out by the winning bidder paying much more gas.

Most likely lack of liquidity and/or gas pricing misconfiguration. Even at an ultra-high 600 gwei (during the peak congestion, the market rate was ~200 gwei) the total fee was less than $10. Simply put: not enough people running liquidation bots.

Example: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x239cc6ba8f28b7a3b66cd5e1b558b0c735...

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#42
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> never going to repeat again So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders. My understanding is that in this case there were other bidders but they were drowned out by the winning bidder paying much more gas.

>So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders. A mining cartel that censors transactions is indeed a real risk. Fortunately, ethereum is switching to PoS where even an average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, as opposed to multiple megawatt (or even giga) mining farms, so it's only a temporary issue. >My understanding is that in this c…

> average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day,

I seem to recall the proposed staking minimum being around $200,000...

Eth's administrators must have a kink for kidnapping.

It's far from clear that "PoS" can result in a system which is both secure and decentralized: https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/pos.pdf ... the limited academic work attempting to demonstrate such things have done things like assume that users were using a lossless ordered reliable broadcast medium (which is equivalent to assuming they were communicating over a consensus system). While the history of ethereum has demonstrated that in spite of claims to the contrary in their investment prospectus strong decentralization isn't a feature of the system, there are still many practical challenges even achieving faux-decentralization with PoS. Practically speaking this challenge is demonstrated by the fact that ETH's operators have continually pushed back their promised migration to PoS. Moreover, as was recently demonstrated with "steem" PoS can also easily be abused to rig outcomes just like that above concern with mining.

So I think its far from clear that this is a temporary issue. Instead, to me it looks like PoS has turned into a never-arriving panacea being used to excuse all sorts of serious flaws in the ethereum ecosystem in addition to ethereum itself.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#43
post #38

When you are involved long enough with crypto, you'll see a lot of stupid ideas. DAI is one of them. For those who don't have time to get into the weeds, DAI is a "digital native" stable coin. It wants to create a 1-1 peg to USD using an underlying volatile asset, Ethereum. If you want to use USD, it's probably most efficient to go get USD. :) But for some ideological reasons (decentralization), DAI wants to be USD b…

>Digital assets are digital. Humans are the arbitrageurs. Humans are emotional. DAI is trying to create stability on top of Ethereum volatility. It's kinda like building a stable house on a shaky foundation. And yet it works. Dai has practical results; it has weathered massive volatility in the price of Ether over the past 2 years. >If you need to lock up 1.5 USD for 1 USD, you may as well go get 1 USD. It's a dumb i…

> Or you just don't understand how it works. Dai is a complicated solution to a complicated problem, but its not some trick.

But the problem isn't complicated. If you need something worth 1USD, buy 1USD. It is by definition stable relative to 1USD. You don't need to understand complicated terminology or esoteric failure modes.

DAI is effectively never worth exactly 1USD: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#44
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders. A mining cartel that censors transactions is indeed a real risk. Fortunately, ethereum is switching to PoS where even an average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, as opposed to multiple megawatt (or even giga) mining farms, so it's only a temporary issue. >My understanding is that in this c…

> average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, I seem to recall the proposed staking minimum being around $200,000... Eth's administrators must have a kink for kidnapping. It's far from clear that "PoS" can result in a system which is both secure and decentralized: https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/pos.pdf ... the limited academic work attempting to demonstrate such things…

> I seem to recall the proposed staking minimum being around $200,000...

I takes 32 ETH to run your own validator node, so at current prices $4,183.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#45
post #38

When you are involved long enough with crypto, you'll see a lot of stupid ideas. DAI is one of them. For those who don't have time to get into the weeds, DAI is a "digital native" stable coin. It wants to create a 1-1 peg to USD using an underlying volatile asset, Ethereum. If you want to use USD, it's probably most efficient to go get USD. :) But for some ideological reasons (decentralization), DAI wants to be USD b…

> If you need to lock up 1.5 USD for 1 USD, you may as well go get 1 USD. It's a dumb idea to use 1.5 USD to get 1 USD. DAI locks up 1.5 USD of ETH, not 1.5 USD. There is an important difference. The main benefit/use of DAI is that it effectively lets you increase your leverage when you are betting long on ETH. The trick is that when you lock ETH in the contract you can then use the resulting DAI to purchase more ETH…

The real idea here is even beyond going long on ETH. It's multi collateral DAI. The idea that you can (eventually) lock up any collateralized asset and mint DAI. Need to take out a mortgage on a property you own? You can do it automatically and atomically through smart contracts without any middlemen. Eventually people could tokenize things like their future earnings and take out a loan against that now. As dystopian as that last point sounds, it illustrates the point.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#46
post #30
post #24

A lot of Ethereum DeFi (and cryptocurrency in general) has been pretty frustrating to watch, because it's a lot of people with big ideas and little understanding of how to build stable financial systems. In the case of Maker, what's interesting is that a stablecoin is actually possible. Maker has a really good core idea, several great elements to it: 1. The stablecoin is backed by collateral, typically a significant…

>So on both sides of the equation, you have this liquidity risk that doesn't really need to exist. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on this. It's apparently big problem with the Maker protocol, and seems to be an inherent issue with the use of a perpetual (afaik we're seeing the price of DAI spike as a consequence), but I'm not aware of a simple fix.

A good fix requires the whole system to be re-imagined a bit. You want to start with the invariant that a stablecoin holder can liquidate to Eth at any point, and that a collateral issuer can extract their Eth at any point.

Instead of having the collateral provider be the only one who can issue the stablecoin, you could build a system where anyone could acquire the stablecoin (Dai) by putting in an appropriate amount of Eth.

Any extra Eth that gets put into the pool will issue a volatile asset, which I'll call Vai here for simplicity. Where Dai has no exposure to volatility, Vai has increased exposure to volatility. As the Eth price rises, the amount of Eth that Vai can be redeemed for increases, and as the Eth price drops, the amount of Eth that Vai can be redeemed for decreases (this is the opposite of Dai).

At any time, Eth and Vai can be redeemed for Eth from the pool. As the price of Eth moves around, the pool becomes over-collateralized and under-collateralized.

If at any point the pool becomes under-collateralized, all Vai becomes worth zero, and all Dai can redeem Eth proportional to the amount of collateral that there is. Meaning, in a "black swan" scenario, Dai holders become exposed at 1x to the price volatility of Eth. This is much better than the whole system melting down, and the Dai holders do get to dodge a significant amount of the downtrend while the Vai evaporates. (Dai holders see no exposure until all the Vai is gone).

You can keep the pool balanced using interest rates. If you have a target collateralization level (say 150%), then any time the pool is under-collateralized, you can automatically drop the interest rate that Dai holders earn (going negative if necessary). If the pool is over-collateralized, you increase the interest rate.

A lower interest rate encourages Dai holders to withdraw and Vai holders to enter. A higher interest rate encourages Dai holders to enter and Vai holders to withdraw.

-----

The most important thing about the system above is that it is highly predictable. In all scenarios where the price of Eth moves, you can model what happens, and you have guarantees on how much Eth you can draw, and you can withdraw that Eth immediately (well, you'll need to pay blockchain fees and wait for a block, but you don't need a counterparty or any sort of system liquidity). The worst case for the stablecoin holders is that they get exposure to 1x Eth, but this only happens if Eth drops faster than people deposit Vai.

There are a bunch of math tricks you can use to allow people to select different exposure levels (you could have some Dai targeting 250% over-collateralization, meaning it's very robust to huge drops in Eth price, and other Dai only target 15% over-collateralization, and these two assets could be fully fungible against eachother) for Dai holders and Vai holders, but we are getting beyond the scope of a single HN comment.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#47
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So now it just needs a little help from miners to actively exclude all other bidders. A mining cartel that censors transactions is indeed a real risk. Fortunately, ethereum is switching to PoS where even an average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, as opposed to multiple megawatt (or even giga) mining farms, so it's only a temporary issue. >My understanding is that in this c…

> average person with a smartphone could realistically generate several blocks a day, I seem to recall the proposed staking minimum being around $200,000... Eth's administrators must have a kink for kidnapping. It's far from clear that "PoS" can result in a system which is both secure and decentralized: https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/pos.pdf ... the limited academic work attempting to demonstrate such things…

>I seem to recall the proposed staking minimum being around $200,000...

No, it's 32 eth, which is a bit over $4k.

>https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/pos.pdf

Stake grinding is an obsolete attack (solved by randao, in the future strengthened with VDF asics).

The second argument that weak subjectivity is somehow unsafe is at odds with reality: it assumes some far away hermit that runs an old node after 10 years of hibernation, with no ability to communicate with others otherwise. In reality, crypto is a technology for resource allocation among humans also participating in that specific system, which means the only constraint is to make the bonding period sufficiently long that manual decisions are feasible and not overly costly. A system that requires a node to run for few minutes every few months to follow the same chain fulfills those conditions.

>Moreover, as was recently demonstrated with "steem" PoS

No, steem has DPoS, which is very different in practice. It has inherent centralization because there are only 21 witnesses, as opposed to potentially millions. It has stake delegation baked in the protocol which ensures all witnesses are public figures that know each other, which makes a cartel the expected outcome. Nodes are by design heavy which makes outside verification very hard.

Eth2 has to support up to millions of nodes at once. It has pro-decentralization penalties - penalties grow if others are misbehaving at the same time - which means if most of the network is on aws and it goes down, they start to lose their stake very fast, as opposed to random home node going offline in an uncorrelated manner for (most likely) no penalty at all. Same goes for slashing incidents due to contradictory voting.

The system is verifiable externally and can be randomly sampled, because it's stateless and state root is part of the consensus. This also means a block that tries to do something against the rules automatically functions as a fraud proof given only its parent's block header. It's not possible to design a system that's more easily verifiable: all it takes is one person somewhere to observe incorrect behavior to alert the others.

There are going to be centralized staking services, but they are inherently going to charge some fees, and given how light one staking node is going to be and the correlation penalties, most likely they aren't going to be a significant portion of the network.

>never-arriving

It turns out it's not easy to design a system with all these characteristics. PoW is an easy and a temporary hack solution, but that's all it is. Mining (at least sha256) is now fully centralized in China. If a PoW network ever became really important - not as a speculative toy mainly for rich Westerners, but as something used by countries like Iran to evade sanctions on a massive scale - mining would became fully regulated with enforced kyc on every transaction. It's trivial to do, there's no way to hide those mining farms.

PoS can fully function on tor or other anonymizing network.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#48
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Digital assets are digital. Humans are the arbitrageurs. Humans are emotional. DAI is trying to create stability on top of Ethereum volatility. It's kinda like building a stable house on a shaky foundation. And yet it works. Dai has practical results; it has weathered massive volatility in the price of Ether over the past 2 years. >If you need to lock up 1.5 USD for 1 USD, you may as well go get 1 USD. It's a dumb i…

> Or you just don't understand how it works. Dai is a complicated solution to a complicated problem, but its not some trick. But the problem isn't complicated. If you need something worth 1USD, buy 1USD. It is by definition stable relative to 1USD. You don't need to understand complicated terminology or esoteric failure modes. DAI is effectively never worth exactly 1USD: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-col…

People buy 1USD of Paypal account value for 1USD all the time, do you say the same thing to them?

I'm not saying I definitely think Dai is a good idea, but fundamentally the value isn't the only thing that matters. The ability to transfer that value is important and Dai offers something different to USD there.

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#49
post #22

> leading to oracle’s price updates not going through with the gas price they chose wait so the thing relies on oracles? I always thought that MakerDAO was a decentralized stablecoin. Does this mean that it is centralized then? > This put the system in a $4 million deficit So is this proof that MakerDAO does not work in practice?

Yes they are centralised. You cannot have a truly decentralised price data

Re: MakerDAO gets stress tested as ETH price plummets

#50
One of the main purposes of cryptocurrency IMO is to replace the concept of debt. So I find the idea of using blockchain to implement debt to be ridiculous. Why do you need debt if any group of people can create a cryptocurrency and raise money that way?

Debt is an outdated concept and a dirty hack on the financial system, it allows one person to lend money to another person to run their business without owning any part of the business. In today's reality, there are two scenarios:

- The business succeeds and the borrower can afford to repay their debt. The lender only gets back their principal plus interest even if the business no matter how successful the business was. If the lender had invested in the business instead, would have gotten more out of it.

- The business fails and the borrower declares bankruptcy. The lender may lose all their principal; they may have gotten some interest payments if the business was running for some time but it typically doesn't come anywhere close to offsetting the loss of principal. Liquidating remaining assets likely won't cover it either. If the lender had invested in the business instead - In the event of business failure, they may still have been able to get similar returns because they could get a share of the value of remaining assets from liquidation. The only thing they would miss out on is preferential treatment in the event of liquidation... Which is the financial equivalent of travelling first class on the Titanic.

So debt as a concept doesn't make sense from the lender's perspective. As a lender, if you win, your upside is limited. If you lose, your downside is not limited (not any more than it would have been if you had owned the shares outright and could benefit from asset liquidation in case the business had to shut down). Not only that, but forcing the business to constantly make debt repayments only makes it more likely that they will fail. The lender is setting themselves up for failure from the beginning.

That's why only banks loan nowadays. It doesn't make sense. It just allows the Fed to keep giving free money to their cronies.

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