I checked with a bunch of biologists and all of them find the results here to be merely correlational and misleading. Have asked to wait for more evidence
High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
61–70 of 105 posts
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
In many parts of China, it will be 30C hotter and 50%p more humid in the summer than it is now. The combination might reduce R to virtually nothing. In Japan, this could mean that it was the right decision to schedule the Olympics in the middle of summer after all.
I'm pretty sure that the Olympics will be cancelled. It's unlikely that we'll have a vaccine before then and Covid19 is well beyond containment at this point.
Abe is dead set on hosting the Olympics one way or another, so he might try to reschedule it... to a time of year when R is higher. :(
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this serves to better explain the low case totals out of africa, but that might change in the near future.
Why? Do you realize Africa is a huge continent with all kinds of weather right? https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/?continent=africa
There's a visualization here: https://twitter.com/JeromeRoos/status/1236729011889418246
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#64In the developed world a lot of people spend time indoors with air conditioning most of the summer anyway? Especially more frequently now thanks to climate change. Not sure how this changes a lot once it’s circulating already?
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#65Have the authors considered increased sunlight/UV radiation in warmer areas?
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#66I am eagerly awaiting more studies into this subject. Something doesn't feel right about the relative lack of local transmission in e.g. Vietnam (temperatures over 30C at least in the south right now) compared to e.g. Italy (temperatures, what, 15C or lower in the north right now?). Cambodia's extremely low case count can easily be explained away by them not testing anyone, but Vietnam appears to be quite proactive w…
Vietnam has taken this epidemics 10x more seriously than Italy, that could just be the difference. They are testing as much as they can, everybody who had contact with infected people are tracked down and quarantined, streets where you had infected people are closed down and disinfected, almost everybody wear masks, you have temperature checks & hydroalcoholic gel available in public areas, schools are fully closed s…
Yes. However, there's also no travel restriction between Cambodia and Vietnam, significant cross-border traffic, and Cambodia is not "taking it nearly as seriously" as Vietnam is.
If Vietnam had the transmission going on that Italy does, the case-tracking and quarantining would be a lot harder, and I just don't buy that the other things (masks, forehead temperature checks[0], hand sanitizer that hardly anyone knows how to use properly) have much of an impact.
There has to be some much larger factor than those at play (and this study suggests what that factor could be).
[0] I encourage people to ask or look what the reading is when getting these checks. About a third of the time when I get a forehead temperature check, the reading is totally nonsensical, like 31C, but the person just waves me through since it's under the threshold. I'm skeptical of the efficacy of a test that is this inaccurate.
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#67I am eagerly awaiting more studies into this subject. Something doesn't feel right about the relative lack of local transmission in e.g. Vietnam (temperatures over 30C at least in the south right now) compared to e.g. Italy (temperatures, what, 15C or lower in the north right now?). Cambodia's extremely low case count can easily be explained away by them not testing anyone, but Vietnam appears to be quite proactive w…
What doesn't feel right? The abstract states that high temperature and high humidity reduce transmission rates relative to colder climates, which corresponds with the high transmission rates during the northern hemisphere winter and early spring. And yes, lack of testing has resulted in some eyebrow raising numbers. Up in Da Nang now, both locals and foreigners are aware and taking it seriously -- scary times.
Sorry if I was unclear. I was trying to say that it seems clear to me intuitively that something other than "taking it seriously" is reducing the transmission rates in VN. It's just a "feeling" -- but this study seems to provide some (thin) evidence supporting it.
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#68Spain seems to be an exception to this theory.
Madrid has cold weather up until Tuesday - https://www.accuweather.com/en/es/madrid/308526/march-weathe...
It’d be interesting to see if the warmer weather since Tuesday will reduce the number of new cases. If we assume a week between exposure to getting diagnosed, we would start seeing lowering rate of new infection starting from mid next week.
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like you want me to jump to a conclusion, but all I see is a researcher that studied a virus that has potential to jump to human hosts, and that has a natural reservoir in the area that the do their research.
No, they didn't just study it. They engineered a variant of a SARS-like coronavirus specifically to be able to infect humans. The paper's abstract says they did this by "combining a human immunodeficiency virus-based pseudovirus system with cell lines expressing the ACE2 molecules of human, civet, or horseshoe bat."
Yes, that's how one studies these things. The models we have in simulation are far too crude, so scientists are forced to make the real versions. I have a friend who does this with tuberculosis to study how it develops resistance to drugs. Part of it was trying to enhance or block certain genetic pathways, and yes, sometimes it results in tuberculosis strains with much higher adaptivity than normal. This is how we learn what the pathogen uses, and, hopefully, how to stop it, or at least how not to make the situation worse.
Re: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of Covid-19
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why? Do you realize Africa is a huge continent with all kinds of weather right? https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/?continent=africa
Yes, but the average temperature in vast majority of the areas is higher than the avg temperature of say Europe. When we say Africa is warmer, it is a simplification simply by the virtue that its centroid closer to equator than Europe. Thus, we can say that it's warmer. Side note: don't use rhetorical questions to respond to someone. It's demeaning. Rephrase "Why? Africa is a huge continent with all kinds of weather.…
It's not demeaning, it actually adds color to the answer and makes it more engaging. I don't know what's up with HN's fetishizing of impassionate, humorless and snarkless style. Not everything has to be written like the IEE 754 specification.