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US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

bbc.com

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Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#71

Post by ajross »

chrisco255 wrote: post #68
ajross wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very difficult, which is why work should have started, ahem, four months ago. Now we are, indeed, hopelessly behind.

They did start working on it 4 months ago. The CDC has been on the case since then. Mind you, China was not cooperating with us and wouldn't allow our experts into the country while it was getting bad there. They are ramping up rapidly and we'll see that over the next few days.

I'm sorry, that's just... completely wrong. Everything you said is wrong.

People in the media and elsewhere have been clamoring for months for details from the CDC about how they'll be rolling out testing, and it never arrived. It still hasn't arrived. We're still in the low dozens of tests per day. You're telling me that it's somehow physically impossible for the CDC to have ramped testing beyond that when other nations are in the thousands or tens of thousands per day?

And as far as China not cooperating: they published the full sequence of this thing back in January. We had the genes for this thing even before we had a name for it, or for the disease. And that's not enough help for the CDC?

Where are you getting this information from? Please tell me it's not partisan media.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#72

Post by jfarlow »

heyitsguay wrote: post #45
chromatin wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is RNA virus so it is an extra step that is not necessary in many other PCR based clinical tests.

Sure, I meant for the non-technical aspects that the previous poster mentioned - chain of custody, sample integrity.

So the process used in this testing is so common that research labs and any biochemistry lab in any college or high-school can run the test. But they probably shouldn't because they have no practice nor experience providing a diagnosis to a human - much less the strict statistical controls to interpret their results reliably.

A clinical lab that is used to running these kinds of (very common) protocols will see no difference in this protocol from others they commonly run (from a chain of custody, sample integrity, etc. perspective), just with a slight change to their reagents to specifically test for COVID. Their handling should be no different.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#73

Post by bluGill »

Lewton wrote: post #63
bluGill wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when you run out of raw materials to make the tests. I could leave my job and create them, but that would take months to train me (and maybe years if I have to create my own equipment - it takes time to become a certified welder as just one task that doesn't scale quickly)

.... The raw materials for doing these tests scale linearly with population too. It's just RNA sequencing, it can be done at any university using standard equipment and materials

Right, until we run out of labs, and/or the labs run out of materials.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#74

Post by Lewton »

bluGill wrote: post #73
Lewton wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.... The raw materials for doing these tests scale linearly with population too. It's just RNA sequencing, it can be done at any university using standard equipment and materials

Right, until we run out of labs, and/or the labs run out of materials.

What does that have to do with the US's testing capability per capita compared to other countries?

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#75

Post by bluGill »

Lewton wrote: post #74
bluGill wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, until we run out of labs, and/or the labs run out of materials.

What does that have to do with the US's testing capability per capita compared to other countries?

We cannot scale linearly per capita.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#76

Post by stevenwoo »

chrisco255 wrote: post #68
ajross wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very difficult, which is why work should have started, ahem, four months ago. Now we are, indeed, hopelessly behind.

They did start working on it 4 months ago. The CDC has been on the case since then. Mind you, China was not cooperating with us and wouldn't allow our experts into the country while it was getting bad there. They are ramping up rapidly and we'll see that over the next few days.

The best response was from a somewhere China thinks should not exist - the Taiwanese government. They started working on this when China finally let the rest of the world know. There is a lot of people traffic between those two countries so one might have expected Taiwan to have been hit hard, but the Taiwan health authorities were aggressive in being preventative.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#77

Post by noodle_face_ »

doubleunplussed wrote: post #35
drevil-v2 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s Tom Hanks by the way. You don’t think he got preferential treatment?

In Australia? Honestly, no. The public system treats everyone pretty much the same, I'm sure he had to wait in the same lines as anyone else.

That's funny

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#78

Post by astrophysician »

What is the true/false negative/positive rate for these tests? I can't find that online and I have tried.

If FPR is 10% and we test 100,000,000 people in the US but only 100,000 have the disease right now, then assuming a TPR of 100% (and a FNR of 0%) we will have 10,100,000 positive results = 101 x the number of people with COVID? How is that useful?

Disclaimer: I am maybe an idiot.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#79

Post by ceejayoz »

bluGill wrote: post #73
Lewton wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.... The raw materials for doing these tests scale linearly with population too. It's just RNA sequencing, it can be done at any university using standard equipment and materials

Right, until we run out of labs, and/or the labs run out of materials.

If the US can't get enough lab materials to match one day of South Korea's test reagent usage, that should be its own huge scandal.

Re: US admits 'failing' on testing, says Fauci

#80

Post by divbzero »

chromatin wrote: post #42
pgrote wrote: post #5

Admitting and identifying the problem is the first step. The Cleveland Clinic just came out with an 8 hour test and hopefully this will help the situation if they share the process. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...

I mean, kudos to CCF, but take this for what it's worth (from another tier 1 University Hospital): Most university hospitals' in house test results are / are going to be available in similar time frame, but they do not have the media budget of the Cleveland Clinic. Vox article links to a CCF press release fluff piece.

Yes, kudos just the same.

Other labs across the US are ramping up similar tests. This is exactly what we need and we shouldn’t mind all of them taking credit for their contributions.

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