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Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

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Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#111

Post by saati »

chrisco255 wrote: post #107
gdubs wrote: post #13

As the joke goes, a trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about some real money! But in seriousness, the next week is a critical time in the world. I remember sitting in an airport when news of Lehman Brothers collapse was flashing on the TV screens. I'm reminded of that time. We learned later about how Hank Paulson got down on one knee and begged Nancy Pelosi to go along with is plan to save…

This disease didn't exist 4 months ago and you're calling it a scandal that they can't process billions of tests in that short time frame? It's also not enough to be tested just once as there have been many false negatives. Scaling that up is an immense challenge. It was also exacerbated by the fact that China wouldn't allow our researchers into the country to study the disease. Meanwhile they've already reached stag…

The US doesn't have billions of people, just checking the ones coming from the countries where it's present would have been enough, other countries managed to do it.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#112

Post by hef19898 »

gdubs wrote: post #13

As the joke goes, a trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about some real money! But in seriousness, the next week is a critical time in the world. I remember sitting in an airport when news of Lehman Brothers collapse was flashing on the TV screens. I'm reminded of that time. We learned later about how Hank Paulson got down on one knee and begged Nancy Pelosi to go along with is plan to save…

> The lack of testing will maybe turn out to be one of the biggest scandals of my lifetime.

If I had to choose one thing that should change right now, it is this. Aggressive testing of everyone, starting with contact persons, persons travelling from high risk areas and then basically everyone. Would allow a much better understanding of the situation and make any measures way more effective.

Other than that, the measures taken seem reasonable based on the situation when they ware taken (for expectations, refer to testing).

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#113

Post by lend000 »

chillacy wrote: post #97
lend000 wrote: post #55

In times of panic, remember that in the worst likely scenario, this virus will slow consumer spending, increase demand for hospitals, stagnate productivity for about 12 months, and kill about 0.4% of the world's population (using Spanish flu infection patterns for reference, which infected ~25% of the world population). At that point, there will be sufficient herd immunity (and likely effective treatments or vaccines…

Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Using the worst case scenario so far as meaning "worst possible scenario" is a fallacy (consider that the past "worst case" was already surprising to people back then because it was worse than the "past's past"). Not to imply we should panic over a low probability event, just pointing out that we should be careful about Kurtosis.

Note that I wrote "worst likely scenario" not "worst possible scenario."

Worst possible scenario is not really useful for short to mid term planning in an unconstrained event space (gamma ray burst or massive meteor hits Earth, etc.).

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#114

Post by chasd00 »

jacquesm wrote: post #105
mdszy wrote: post #83

Universal healthcare? Too expensive. $1.5T to bail out wall street? Sure!

I don't think you fully understand the subject. This money did not 'bail out wall street', it made sure the bottom did not drop out of the market which would affect pensions and savings plans of very large numbers of people. The thing to worry about is that it did not work .

i'll add it prevents runs on the bank which, in turn, prevents the market from bottoming out. But even then, if banks lose access to cash and money stops moving there is no market. There's nothing.

I think many people in this thread don't understand the gravity of money ceasing to move around the global economy.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#115

Post by tic_tac »

whatshisface wrote: post #110
tic_tac wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't just conjure the necessary tests up from nothing. Japan has also had problems with testing. No one is trying to "deny testing". It is a work in progress and is indeed ramping up.

The FDA had a ban on tests outside of the CDC's tiny supply for a long time. That's whats being referred to by "denying testing." Not a political issue so much as a typical bureaucratic slowdown with very real consequences.

The comment I replied to was saying that the lack of testing was indeed a political issue with one side at fault.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#116

Post by xbmcuser »

chrisco255 wrote: post #107
gdubs wrote: post #13

As the joke goes, a trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about some real money! But in seriousness, the next week is a critical time in the world. I remember sitting in an airport when news of Lehman Brothers collapse was flashing on the TV screens. I'm reminded of that time. We learned later about how Hank Paulson got down on one knee and begged Nancy Pelosi to go along with is plan to save…

This disease didn't exist 4 months ago and you're calling it a scandal that they can't process billions of tests in that short time frame? It's also not enough to be tested just once as there have been many false negatives. Scaling that up is an immense challenge. It was also exacerbated by the fact that China wouldn't allow our researchers into the country to study the disease. Meanwhile they've already reached stag…

USA has a habit of using medical personal as spies so understandable if countries don't trust them. WHO had already provided testing kits but US didn't accept wanted to build it own bungled it the first time and is waiting for private companies to build the tests. CDC was not allowing hospitals and labs to do their own testing so I think you guys should stop blaming China and start looking inwards. Had US done everything perfectly then balmed China then it would be understandable so far they have bungled all the steps now blaming China for it. South Korea, Singapore the rest of Chinese neighbors didn't need to go to China to be on the ball. But oh China didn't allow usa inside China.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#117

Post by Reedx »

chrisco255 wrote: post #107
gdubs wrote: post #13

As the joke goes, a trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about some real money! But in seriousness, the next week is a critical time in the world. I remember sitting in an airport when news of Lehman Brothers collapse was flashing on the TV screens. I'm reminded of that time. We learned later about how Hank Paulson got down on one knee and begged Nancy Pelosi to go along with is plan to save…

This disease didn't exist 4 months ago and you're calling it a scandal that they can't process billions of tests in that short time frame? It's also not enough to be tested just once as there have been many false negatives. Scaling that up is an immense challenge. It was also exacerbated by the fact that China wouldn't allow our researchers into the country to study the disease. Meanwhile they've already reached stag…

South Korea has been running 10k tests per day since February.

The US has run less than 10k in total. That is a colossal failure.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#118

Post by allovernow »

tw04 wrote: post #69
gdubs wrote: post #13

As the joke goes, a trillion here a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about some real money! But in seriousness, the next week is a critical time in the world. I remember sitting in an airport when news of Lehman Brothers collapse was flashing on the TV screens. I'm reminded of that time. We learned later about how Hank Paulson got down on one knee and begged Nancy Pelosi to go along with is plan to save…

>But if there were ever a time for us not to be partisan and tribal, it's now. You say that like both parties are trying to deny testing and are refusing to provide the social safety net for workers to stay home when they're sick. This is very much not a "both sides" discussion. This is: the GOP needs to stop trying to pretend like nothing is wrong and actually DO SOMETHING to prevent this from becoming an even bigge…

>Ahh, the old cowardly downvote without comment because you don't like the reality of the situation that there is one party that's very much to blame

People are probably downvoting silently this time because explaining to you that you're obliviously consuming propaganda is one step deeper into flamewar territory which is unpopular on HN (and against the rules).

Case in point? Media reports that bill forcing employers to provide sick leave failed to pass because of evil Republicans. What you won't see on the news is the nuance that such a bill can't be passed without possibly bankrupting small businesses.

That's just one example. The administration shut down the border early on and was enthusiastically rewarded with accusations of sinophobia.

All politicians play this game. The US government institution has been rotting for decades, and yes, it really is a "both sides" issue when one side is so blinded by hatred that they refuse to acknowledge positive decisions.

There are literally almost as many people on the Republican side blindly dismissing everything Democrats do. Remember, Trump only lost the popular vote by 3%. Now is not the time for partisan idiocy.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#119

Post by everybodyknows »

jmeyer2k wrote: post #37
taiwanboy wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is to help an otherwise very healthy US economy (low unemployment rate, solid gdp growth, income increases) from being taken down by an one time external, expiring event and panic that flows from it. What is the point not supporting crucial companies in the stock market? Are you really better off if target or chevron or Hilton goes under? And tons of people have no jobs and there no access to staples?

I've seen this argument by investors, but what's going to change? The virus isn't going to magically get better overnight one day. It doesn't expire. This is either going to be EXTREMELY bad in the short run or very bad over a long period of time. Either way, the economy is either going to be hurt very badly all at once or slowly deteriorate as countries have to stay quarantined. (Something that the US may have to do…

Perhaps a bit too dire -- much work, and play, can be redirected for lower proximity, as has already begun. We'll be seeing a lot of tennis and golf on TV this summer, I would wager.

Ruinous nevertheless for elective healthcare, health clubs, barbers, and sit-down restaurants.

Re: Fed to inject $1.5T to prevent ‘unusual disruptions’ in markets

#120

Post by chasd00 »

cheeseomlit wrote: post #3

Where does that money come from?

it's backed by "the full faith and credit of the United States" but as more money gets created out of thin air the value of existing money goes down and the credit of the United States goes down.

That's the balance between deflation, healthy inflation, and over/hyper inflation. Managing that balance is 1/2 of the Federal Reserve's job.

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