U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#881

Post by floriol » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #556

lstroud wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize mild means “didn’t require hospitalization”, right? Many “mild” cases are taking weeks to recover.

Well, first: no. The vast majority of cases are no worse than a head cold. But more importantly, you’re not dying and not clogging up a hospital. That’s what’s relevant to this discussion.

But that's not true. While lethality is estimated at tops 3.6%, the cases requiring hospitalization, including breathing apparatus, etc are quite high, and it WILL overflood the capacity of hospitals in virtually every country that didn't take really really serious precautions, of which there are only a handful.

It will be a big problem both in Europe and in the US, because they are starting to take measures only now.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#882

Post by hrasyid » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

anticensor wrote: post #868

hrasyid wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or Britain, or Turkey

Turkey is also erecting public event suspension (trade fairs and large ceremonies cancelled by today), so not going to work.

doesn't mean you can't fly to the US from there.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#883

Post by martinpw » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 5:43 PM UTC

theferalrobot wrote: post #801

martinpw wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Only vs. China, Iran and Italy. > What are you on about? We have fewer deaths than far more countries than that You edited out the second sentence. The full quote is: Only vs. China, Iran and Italy. We're within a factor of two (that is, about 5-6 days) of everyone else. which is accurate.

Again not even close, France for instance has a death rate 10x ours per capita, that's gonna take way more than 5-6 days. The statement is inaccurate any way you slice it. Why use incomplete information when more is available?

He didn't say per capita.

The statement was accurate. It may not be a useful metric, but it was an accurate one.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#884

Post by hrasyid » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

squiggleblaz wrote: post #771

hrasyid wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that should be cancelled?

omg yes! The dentist's going to stick their face right in his! after having stuck their face right into a bunch of other patients! and then they'll stick their face into a few more patients! It sounds like the perfect breeding ground. Even if I wasn't sick, I'd want to cancel for that alone!

Yeah but they use protections like masks, gloves. I think it's reasonable to assume that a dentist's office likely know better than you about how to minimize the risk. They have motivation in not ruining their business by being a source of local outbreak.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#885

Post by tathougies » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

squiggleblaz wrote: post #763

tathougies wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't refuse to readmit a US citizen (as in a person that can prove that they're readily a US citizen). They can force you into quarantine and take all your stuff, but you have a right to be in the country.

Even without a passport? If I rocked up to the border of my country without a passport I'm pretty sure I'd be thrown into a detention centre if I wasn't deported on the spot.

> You can't refuse to readmit a US citizen (as in a person that can prove that they're readily a US citizen)

Note the: as in a person that can prove that they're readily a US citizen. If you don't have a passport, you probably can't readily prove you are a citizen.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#886

Post by wool_gather » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #659

rsj_hn wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are valid points. As to the test kits, I keep hearing conflicting info -- e.g. that there was a shortage of ingredients, too much FDA red tape, etc. There will plenty of root cause analysis in the future, but I think we have to reshore critical infrastructure and there is lots of red tape to cut in both CDC and FDA.

The red tape thing is nonsense. What was lacking was/is political will. CDC/FDA/States could increase testing 100-fold overnight if they really wanted to. A decision has been made to proceed differently. Hopefully this decision is reconsidered over the next few days or things are going to get much worse. Currently, as far as I can tell, we are doing about 1000 tests a day nationwide. I can order the necessary reagent…

Can you cite anything to back this up?

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#887

Post by heedlessly3 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #130

unlinked_dll wrote: post #30

Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly to) it's absolutely going to reduce the number of people who will travel across the pond. Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. My concern is how economies are going to respond to the US being cut off from Continental ports for a month, which as far as I c…

> Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. There are tens of thousands of incubating cases in the United States already. How exactly is a few dozen sick passengers per day going to affect that at all? You'd have to literally be picking up and flying in planes full of active cases to even match what we have here already. This is insanity. No one with any expertise at all recommended it. No one serious thinks this is…

This will still definitely slow down the total amount of infections.

>You'd have to literally be picking up and flying in planes full of active cases to even match what we have here already

Even one person with corona can do a lot of damage.

For example, a singular person boarded Diamond Princess. The ship had 696 confirmed positive cases and 7 deaths from 1 person who had the virus.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#888

Post by theferalrobot » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 7:14 PM UTC

ebrenes wrote: post #821

theferalrobot wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there are likely hundreds of other pneumonia-related deaths going on right now who might well be undiagnosed covid19. Let's just throw around blatant speculation, that will help. Speculation aside that is extremely unlikely to be the case for a variety of clinical reasons https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22553193

The estimate of how many deaths might be undiagnosed might be speculation, but it has already happened in Seattle that COVID deaths were misattributed to seasonal flu. In both cases, the death and symptoms will look identical the difference being in the underlying virus causing the issues. "In fact, officials would later discover through testing, the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people, and it w…

>In both cases, the death and symptoms will look identical the difference being in the underlying virus causing the issues.

As stated before that is absolutely false which is why those cases were caught. Will data be imperfect, yes, but that doesn't mean we should start throwing around Chinese propaganda.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/conspiracy...

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#889

Post by fareesh » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 8:15 PM UTC

officemonkey wrote: post #752

fareesh wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Analogies serve a descriptive purpose to highlight common characteristics They can be purposely interpreted on the basis of their obvious uncommon characteristics but that is very unproductive

Analogies can also be used to dehumanize victims. It's pretty unproductive to refer to people as vermin, coyotes, animals, etc. Unless you're trying to "highlight common characteristics."

A knife can be used to murder but if you point that out to the chef discussing technique in the kitchen, then you are not adding useful information to the conversation.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#890

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 8:33 PM UTC

rabidrat wrote: post #874

maxerickson wrote: post #751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the equation is (currently infected)^(rate*time). Community mitigation changes the rate.

Okay, I think you're right here. But then why when I calculate compound interest, it's (1+rate)^time ?

The infection is continuously compounding. This video is hand wavy, but it shows the relationship:

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-fi...