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Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

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Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#32
The Y2K bug, in the public imagination, was premised on code like this existing somewhere in our computers:

  const DATE_COMPUTERS_DID_NOT_EXIST = /* arbitrary */;
  
  /* snip */
  
  if (Date::now() 
(See also: the Simpsons Y2K episode, which I think is a good representation of what many non-tech people believed would happen.)

I think it's a great lesson in the failings of the public imagination and should serve as a warning to not give into moral panics.

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#33
post #13

I've also found myself musing on a similar question, but one where you may have a different temporal perspective at this particular moment: In six months, are we going to collectively believe that the Coronavirus was nothing and we massively overreacted to it? Because if we do react strongly, and it does largely contain the virus, that will also be "proof" (quote-unquote) that it wasn't anything we needed to be so pr…

Neither the current pandemic nor Y2K really fit the definition of a black swan event, since they were completely predictable (and predicted).

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#34
I was not working on fixing Y2K issues, but I did notice the impact it had on systems that hadn't been patched. It's the typical IT conundrum, when you do a good job no one notices and you don't get rewarded for doing a good job; the only recognition comes when things fail.

Some historians seem to think that it was a real crisis in which the US pioneered solutions that were used across the world: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/12/30/lessons-yk...

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#36
In 1998 we tested the new computers we sold and many failed or gave odd results when the date was changed to 2000. By mid 1999 almost none of the computers had any problems if you advanced the date.

Also one of the major results of the Y2K bug, IT department finally got the budgets to upgrade their hardware. If they had not gotten newer hardware I am sure there would have been more problems.

Finally, in my area the main reason companies failed from IT problems is because of problems with their database, but it turns out their backup are not good or have not been done recently. Many companies tried to be cheap and never updated their backup software, so even if they did backup their data the backup software could really mess things up if it used 2 digit dates to track which files to update.

Things go very bad if you lose Payroll, Accounts Payable or Accounts Receive-able.

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#37
What does the science say? I have seen exactly zero studies which claim that the y2k bug would have led to disastrous consequences if action had not been taken.

Compare that to the CFC situation in the 80's. Scientists agree that the mitigating actions we took saved the ozone layer. Or compare it to the current global warming crisis. Scientists tell us that if we do nothing, we will suffer catastrophic climate change.

Media never tells you the truth, but the scientists usually do. So you listen to them.

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#38
post #27

From someone who went through it and dealt with code, it was a real problem but I also think it was handled poorly publicly. The issues were known for a long time, but the media hyped it into a frenzy because a few higher profile companies and a lot of government systems had not been updated. In fact, there were still a number of government systems that were monkey patched with date workarounds and not properly fixed…

> I don't know about now but it wouldn't shock me We'll be up for a few Y2K bugs at the start of every decade because 'year += year https://www.pymnts.com/news/payment-methods/2020/new-years-b...

There's less cause to use small data sizes for timestamps and date codes now. Storage has grown by orders of magnitude, the idea that a numeric data type would only be large enough to store a 2-digit year or that you would want to save disk space by abbreviating an extra 2 letters is foreign to a lot of new developers. And the 20-year-old systems are slowly dissapearing...

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#39
post #13

I've also found myself musing on a similar question, but one where you may have a different temporal perspective at this particular moment: In six months, are we going to collectively believe that the Coronavirus was nothing and we massively overreacted to it? Because if we do react strongly, and it does largely contain the virus, that will also be "proof" (quote-unquote) that it wasn't anything we needed to be so pr…

Neither the current pandemic nor Y2K really fit the definition of a black swan event, since they were completely predictable (and predicted).

In my opinion (emphasis opinion), "black swan" includes the concept of timing... that a pandemic would occur is inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Market crashes are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Volcanic eruptions are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. etc.

Things that are inevitable only when you encompass time spans longer than a human life (it has been approximately one and a half average human lifespans since the previous pandemic) may be predictable at that large aggregate scale, but on useful scales they are not. Or, to put it another way, if you've been shorting the market since 1918 for the next pandemic crash, you went bankrupt a long time ago.

Y2K is only a black swan for those not in the industry, since that one is obviously intrinsically timing based. The UNIX timestamp equivalent is also equally predictable to you and I, but to the rest of the world will seem even more arbitrary if it's still a problem by then. (At least Y2K was visibly obviously special on the normal human calendar.) But I wouldn't claim the term for that; call it a bit of sloppiness in my writing.

Re: Ask HN: Was the Y2K crisis real?

#40
Yes and no.

There were a lot of two-digit dates out there which would have led to a lot of bugs. Companies put a lot of effort into addressing them so the worst you heard about was a 101 year old man getting baby formula in the mail.

The media over-hyped it, though. There was a market for books and guest interviews on TV news, and plenty of people were willing to step up and preach doom & gloom for a couple bucks: planes were going to fall out of the sky, ATMs would stop working, all traffic lights were going to fail, that sort of thing. It's like there was a pressure to ratchet things up a notch every day so you looked like you were more aware of the tragic impact of this bug than everyone else.

That's the part of the crisis that wasn't real, and it never was.

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